Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Consumer Energy 400🏁

We finally get a normal NASCAR weekend as the series travels to Brooklyn, Michigan for the Consumers Energy 400. We will not have to worry about inspection on Sunday so we can set our lineups Saturday night and not have to worry about slate altering news a few hours before the green flag drops. Michigan International Speedway is a 2 mile D-shaped oval with very little tire wear. The June race here showed the importance of clean air with this aero package and any driver that can get up front will stay there until a caution/pit stops.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Elliott, Hamlin, Blaney, Jones, DiBenedetto, Ragan 316.00 DK pts.

$20K Happy Hour: Elliott, Hamlin, Blaney, Jones, DiBenedetto, Ragan 316.00 DK pts. Min cash: 224.50 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Elliott, Hamlin, Blaney, Jones, DiBenedetto, Ragan 316.00 DK pts.  Min cash: 224.75 DK pts.

$250K First Gear: Blaney, Bowman, DiBendetto, Elliott, Ragan, Truex Jr. 308.75 DK pts. Min cash: 228.50 DK pts.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 166 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 83 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

After reading the lineup breakdown from the previous newsletter I had two main take aways. Firstly, clean air is king. The top 4 cars have led between 50-90% of laps in each of the last 5 races here and a fast car on the pole will be incredibly hard to pass. Secondly, the perfect lineup was exactly what we expected: 1 dominator, two other cars starting in the top 15 that finished in the top 10 and three drivers that picked up 10 or more spots. This week we were gifted two drivers that are almost guaranteed to pick up 10 spots but the dominator and front end drivers are what we are going to have to decipher.

I made a big stink in the June race newsletter about the importance of finishing position here and it rang true again because last race had five drivers that finished in the top 10, but three of those drivers started in the top 10. What we can learn from this is even if we think a driver can pick up a spot or two, if it gets them from 9th to 7th it is much more valuable than going from 19th to 17th, the place differential is the same but the total point value is much different. This type of strategy reminds me of the "go big or go home" mentality and takes away the safety blanket of a punt but by limiting our driver pool, we have a better chance of hitting it big.

On a side note, I have tried my hand at producing a finishing position model that I will include in my cheatsheet this week. This is my own personal projection and in no way affects the LineStar Projections, just an idea of where I think a specific driver can finish. If you like it let me know, if not...well you can let me know that too.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Watkins Glen Review:

• Joey Logano (19.00 DK pts): Logano continues to be his own worst enemy here, spinning early and actually losing two spots when it was all said and done.

• Daniel Suarez (28.00 DK pts): Suarez just couldn't get going and was only able to pick up one spot.

Michigan Picks: 

Austin Dillon ($7,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

I style the foundation targets as cash game picks and sometimes in NASCAR DFS you have to play the free square. Dillon already had an August race narrative going for himself this weekend with three top 7 finishes in the last four August races here and now he is starting 37th after having his qualifying time was disallowed. NASCAR found that his car was equipped with a non-approved alternator so we should take his first practice speeds with a grain of salt but either way he is a lock to pick up at least 10 spots unless something catastrophic occurs, but this is a fairly low incident race so I am just going to lock him in.

Daniel Hemric ($6,400 DK, $6,800 FD)

Hemric is the other free square of the weekend, starting 38th due to the same alternator issue that Dillon was penalized for (they are teammates after all). Hemric lost one spot in his only Cup race at Michigan and actually has a negative average place differential at similar tracks but that will not discourage me because those are all products of him qualifying very well. Hemric has a top 20 car and that's all we are going to need.

Tournament Targets

Watkins Glen Review:

• Chase Elliott (82.50 DK pts): Elliott broke the slate, started on the pole, led 80 laps, added 33 fastest laps and won. Nothing I can say besides complete domination.

• Erik Jones (50.50 DK pts): My debate was Jones vs Bowyer going into the race and Jones blew his doors off. Jones was able to pick up 10 spots en route to a 4th place finish.

• Matt DiBenedetto (52.00 DK pts): DiBenedetto continues his streak of excelling at gimmicky tracks as finished 6th.

Michigan Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($11,800 DK , $13,000 FD)

I will have either Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski in 100% of my lineups but am leaning 70/30 Harvick. Harvick was very impressive in practice on Saturday and has the better Michigan history and similar track history. Harvick led 49 and 108 laps in two of the last four races here and led between 30 and 60 percent of laps in three similar tracks this year. Keseloski has not been very dominant despite his wins, while Harvick has accrued a significant amount of dominator points but hasn't been able to pick up more wins. These two drivers are close and much better than the two drivers starting the row behind them, so I don't foresee too much competition early.

Kurt Busch ($8,900 DK , $11,000 FD)

I always love a sale and we get Kurt at a slight price discount. Over the last 5 races here, he has an average finish of 6.8 and average positive place diff of 3.2 (basically he starts outside the top 10 and finishes inside the top 10). Busch has not fared as well at similar tracks but he starts 13th and as long as he gets inside the top 10 he will have a fighting chance of making the perfect lineup.

Kyle Larson ($8,300 DK , $10,200 FD)

Larson is another driver that is underpriced but I am not going to complain. He is starting 17th and has just about as much of a chance to finish in the top 5 as he does to smack a wall late in the race and fall into the 30s. He owns three wins here and is trending in the right direction for the season including three top 5 finishes at similar tracks this season.

Bargain Bin

Watkins Glen Review

• The full fade didn't work with David Ragan scoring 31 points and ending up in the perfect lineup. The rest of the range was brutal, not scoring more than 22 points.

Michgan Picks

This is another week where we are going to fade this range. It worked last time and has worked in the past here. These cars are much slower than the front runner and at this track it makes a big deal.

Other Drivers To Consider

Watkins Glen Review

• Kyle Busch (27.50 DK pts)

• Alex Bowman (33.00 DK)

• Paul Menard (30.75 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Michigan that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Erik Jones ($8,500 DK, $10,600 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ryan Newman ($7,900 DK, $8,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Watkins Glen Review

• William Byron (4.50 DK pts): Byron fell out of the top 20 and was very close to going negative.

Michigan Pick

Kyle Busch ($12,400 DK, $15,500 FD)

This is going to be one of the riskiest fades I have suggested in a while, but hear me out. Busch is starting 22nd but everyone is talking about how slow the Toyotas (not named Erik Jones) have looked this weekend and he will need a big move to pay off his salary considering either Harvick or Keselowski are going to put up a big number. Busch may be fairly popular this weekend due to his place differential upside but he has very limited dominator potential and I believe we are better off building a more balanced lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Consumer Energy 400 CheatSheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!