Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Go Bowling at The Glen 🏁

As the regular season winds down, the racing has certainly heated up. Can NASCAR make it three exciting finishes in a row? This week, right hand turns are back as NASCAR makes their annual trip to Watkins Glen International Speedway in Watkins Glen, NY for the Go Bowling at The Glen....race? (This is one of the few times they don't have a number in the name and it always sounds weird). Watkins Glen is a 2.45 mile road course with 7 turns and a good amount of straightaways so the cars actually go a little faster than Sonoma which is part of the reason why some drivers perform better at one track than the other. Weather won't be an issue Sunday but even if some pop up showers occur, the cars are equipped with rain tires and windshield wipers so they will be ready. This is another impound race so you should know the drill by now, the field will not be set until inspection is completed Sunday morning. Be sure to follow along in chat and Twitter for Sunday morning updates.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Byron, Hemric, Blaney, Larson, Hamlin, Jones 358.50 DK pts.

$20K Happy Hour: Byron, Hemric, Blaney, Larson, Hamlin, Jones 358.50 DK pts Min cash: 287.00 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Byron, Hemric, Blaney, Larson, Hamlin, Jones 358.50 DK pts  Min cash: 291.00 DK pts.

$222K First Gear: Blaney, Byron, Hamlin, Hemric, Johnson, Larson, 358.25 DK pts. Min cash: 299.25 DK pts.

On to The Glen!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 90 laps will be run and 22.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 78 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 39 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

***This is an impound race so the lineup will not be official until inspection is complete Sunday morning. Inspection starts at 9 am and I will try to update everyone via chat and Twitter about how things are progressing. Make sure to follow along and help each-other out. If a driver fails inspection, their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will be moved to the rear of the field for real life and DFS purposes (they will be scored from the rear of the field). This newsletter is based off of the unofficial starting lineup and the driver recommendations are subject to change as inspection progresses. As always, I will be in chat to answer any questions and provide any updates.***

Last week I mentioned that there were very few dominator points available at Pocono, and there are even less available at the Glen. This will lead us to two distinct ways of building our lineups for cash and tournaments. The perfect lineup for each of the last 3 races had the driver that led the most laps in them, but not every one had the top 3 lap leads. Now that may seem logical because there aren't many tracks where three drivers lead a significant amount of laps, but at Watkins Glen it is not uncommon to have multiple drivers lead more than 20 laps. The reason some of the lesser lap leaders did not end up in the perfect lineup is because they were not able to finish well, negating all of their lap led points. In cash, I would avoid trying to pick a dominator all together and just focus on drivers that can both pick up spots and finish well. In tournaments, I would aim for one dominator (usually starting in the top 3) and five drivers that can finish well. This is going to be a decent tournament week because we will most likely want to front load our lineups (unless all hell breaks loose in inspections) with at least four drivers starting in the top 20 that we think can pick up spots and finish well. The problem with front loading lineups is the inherent risk; one false move will sink a lineup. But sometimes you have to go big or go home.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 20 laps, Stage 2: 20 laps, Stage 3: 50 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Pocono Review:

• Kevin Harvick (67.00 DK pts): Harvick led 62 laps and added 37 fastest laps. He led the most laps and finished 6th but was not able to crack the perfect/winning lineups due to all of the failures.

• Ryan Blaney (55.30 DK pts):I loved Blaney when he was starting 20th, and locked him in when he failed inspection. He officially started 30th and finished 10th on his way to every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

Watkins Glen Picks:

Joey Logano ($9,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

Logano is coming off of two terrible finishes at The Glen the last two years but before then he was on a tear. Between 2013 and 2016, Logano finished 2,1,6,7 with positive place differential in all four races. He is starting 21st on Sunday but had the 12th best five lap average and 9th best 10 lap average in second practice. He is fairly underpriced and will only need a top 10 to reach value which I believe is his floor.

Daniel Suarez ($8,100 DK, $9,400 FD)

Suarez is one of those drivers who is significantly better at Watkins Glen than any other road course. In two career Cup races here, Suarez has finished 3rd and 4th and was able to pick up spots in both races. He's starting 18th on Sunday and was not incredibly impressive in practice but he does have a faster car than some of the drivers in front of him and had similar practice times last year when he moved from 21st to 4th.

Tournament Targets

Pocono Review:

• Chris Buescher (45.50 DK pts): If you told me Buescher was going to finish with 45.5 DK pts I would have guaranteed a perfect lineup appearance but it wasn't in the cards last weekend. He moved up from 33rd to 16th and even added a fastest lap.

• Ryan Preece (-10.00 DK pts): This one hurt, he was an absolute landmine in a roster, only completing 114 laps and finishing 37th.

• Kyle Larson (66.00 DK pts): The boom or bust pick boomed this weekend with a 5th place finish. He very slightly higher owned than expected but still fairly sneaky, especially with all the chalk. He was in the perfect lineup and every winning lineup.

Watkins Glen Picks:

Chase Elliott ($10,300 DK , $11,500 FD)

Elliot won here last year and is defending his championship from the pole. He was very fast in practice, including the best single lap and second best 5 lap average in second practice but will have his hands full holding off Kyle Busch who will be starting directly behind him. Elliot dominated last year's race, leading 52 laps, and will be looking to repeat that performance. He may not be cash-safe due to his low floor (if Kyle Busch catches him early he can only lose place differential points) but I think he will be a great GPP option because everyone will be looking at Busch.

Erik Jones ($8,900 DK , $10,000 FD)

I really wanted Bowyer in this spot but Jones is starting 1 spot further back, is $800 cheaper on DK ($1000 more expensive on FD where the play may be Bowyer) and has a similar ceiling. In two career Cup races here, Jones has two top 10 finishes and had a top 8 driver rating in each. He was faster than Bowyer in the first practice, slower than him in the second but had a better 5 lap average, and frankly, give me the savings.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,500 DK , $6,000 FD)

DiBenedetto mentioned couple of week ago that he excels at weird tracks and that's not exactly the case here, but I have my faith in his team this weekend. He is my risky play of the week because he has never finished better than 26th here, which is not ideal for a driver starting 20th. But he has shown great speed in practice with the 15th and 3rd best single lap times respectively. He also turned in top 15 five lap averages in both practices, which makes me believe he can put together another career best race.

Bargain Bin

Pocono Review

• Corey Lajoie (28.50 DK Pts): Failing inspection helped Lajoie's floor but he was able to battle up to 26th and turned in a nice score.

Watkins Glen Picks

We are fading the Bargain Bin this weekend. There has not been one driver that cost less than $6200 in the last three perfect lineups, FINISHING POSITION MATTERS. These drivers do not have fast cars and there is not a lot of attrition, so picking up 7 spots doesn't mean too much if you still finish worse than 25th.

Other Drivers To Consider

Pocono Review

• Daniel Hemric (48.00 DK pts)

• William Byron (67.00 DK)

• Chase Elliott (-14.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Watkins Glen that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($11,600 DK, $15,000 FD)

Alex Bowman ($7,600 DK, $9,800 FD)

Paul Menard ($6,900 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Pocono Review

• Austin Dillon (40.00 DK pts): This pick went to hell when he failed inspection and could have been completely blown out of the water considering his 14th average running position.

Watkins Glen Pick

William Byron ($7,200 DK, $9,200 FD)

The last time Byron was my fade he ended up in the perfect lineup but he was helped by some laps led. He has the worst car in the top 4 and maybe the top 10. If he pulls another miracle I will have to tip my hat and move on but he carries just as much risk as Elliott but isn't as fast.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Go Bowling at The Glen CheatSheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!