Written by @joejets19

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 CheatSheet

NASCAR Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 🏁

Let me start off by saying the finish to last week's race was amazing, the Newsletter...not so much. It is a long season and there will be bumps in the road but we need to dust ourselves off and get ready for this Sunday. NACAR will be making their now yearly trip to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH for the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. New Hampshire is a 1.058 mile oval track with very little banking. The 750 hp/brake duct package will be used on Sunday (the same package run in Dover and Phoenix). There is no weather in the forecast, but it will be oppressively hot so that may add a level of intrigue.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Kyle Busch, Jones, Buescher, Kurt Busch, Newman, Houff 362.75 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Bowyer, Buescher, Kurt Busch, Jones, Newman, Suarez 359.25 DK pts. Min cash: 253.50 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Kyle Busch, Jones, Buescher, Kurt Busch, Newman, Houff 362.75 DK pts. Min cash: 259.75 DK pts.

$250K First Gear: Kurt Busch ,Kyle Busch, DiBenedetto, Jones, Newman, Wallace 361.75 DK pts. Min cash: 264.00 DK pts.

On to New Hampshire!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 301 laps will be run and 75.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 268 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 134 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Dominators are incredibly important at New Hampshire. Four of the last five races here have had at two drivers lead more than 95 laps, and all but one of those drivers made it into the perfect lineup. The driver that led the most laps in each of the last five races started in the front row, and the second dominator started in the top 10. Not every dominator has won the race though, so we are going to want to roster a third driver, usually starting in the top 15, that we think can win but does not have to dominate.

We will want to focus the rest of lineup on place differential drivers. We will want two drivers that start 20th or worse that we think can pick up at least 10 places and find a final driver (preferably low cost) that will pick up a few spots but doesn't have to do too much.

In conclusion, we will want two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can dominate, one driver starting in the top 15 that we think can win, two drivers starting 20th or worse that we think can pick up 20 places and one driver that can save us money and pick up a place or two.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 151 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kentucky Review:

• Denny Hamlin (55.25 DK pts): Started 18th, finished 5th and led 5 laps but didn't do enough to crack any winning lineups.

• Brad Keselowski (14.75 DK pts): Started 3rd and somehow destroyed his engine between qualifying and lap 1, wish we could have known that before lock.

New Hampshire Picks: 

Kyle Busch ($11,900 DK, $14,500 FD)

Busch is starting second and in a prime spot to be a dominator. He has led more than 100 laps in each of the last two races at New Hampshire that he started in the front row and only has two finishes outside of the top 8 in his last eleven races here. Busch has the fastest car in the top 5 and will be a force to be wrecked with on Sunday.

Alex Bowman ($8,800 DK, $9,900 FD)

While I thought he was overpriced and had a bad track history going into qualifying, Alex Bowman became the free square for Sunday. He was nice enough to break his car during qualifying, causing him to qualify last. The good thing about that is he will be scored from last, where Newman and Hamlin had trouble in the first practice but qualified 26th and 23rd respectively and will be scored from there. Bowman is a cash game lock because he has a better car than at least 17 drivers starting in front of him, so his only worry will be if his backup car will hold up and if he can manage to avoid being lapped early due to the other slow cars around him.

Tournament Targets

Kentucky Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (14.00 DK pts): Fought his car the entire race and lost 11 spots.

• Alex Bowman (34.00 DK pts):Wasn't terrible but only picked up 5 spots and didn't pay off his salary

• David Ragan (10.00 DK pts): Didn't kill you but certainly didn't help.

New Hampshire Picks:

Martin Truex Jr ($11,500 DK , $14,000 FD)

I am determined to get Truex Jr. right this season. He is starting 6th and has led at least 83 laps in each of the last 5 races here. Truex is not a driver that needs to start in the top 2 to lead laps here. He has led 112 and 123 laps at NH starting 3rd and 5th respectively. He has run well at 1 mile tracks this year too, finishing 1st at Dover and 2nd at Phoenix when starting 13th and 9th.

Daniel Suarez ($7,800 DK , $8,400 FD)

Suarez carries significant risk starting 13th but he has a very high ceiling. He owns two top 8 finishes here in three career cup races and has top 10 single lap speeds. Suarez has been solid this year at 1 mile tracks, gaining spots in both races and even leading 21 laps in Dover.

Ryan Newman ($7,600 DK , $8,000 FD)

Newman wrecked on Friday and was able to qualify 26th but will have to move to the rear at the beginning of the race. He will almost certainly be low owned because he will be scored from 26th, and that makes him a great candidate for my risky play of the week. Newman has three top 13 finishes in the last five races at New Hampshire and two top 18 finishes this year at 1 mile tracks. I don't expect him to replicate his top 10 finish from last week but any top 20 will be very much appreciated.

Bargain Bin

Kentucky Review

• Matt Tifft (20.00 DK Pts): Picked up 3 spots. Almost paid off his salary.

New Hampshire Picks

Ross Chastain ($5,400 DK, $3,000 FD)

Chastain's cup equipment is pitiful which always worries me, but starting 32nd, he actually might not have to do too much. Two of the last five perfect lineups had cheap drivers starting worse than 30th that picked up only a handful of spots and that is well within his range of outcomes.

Other Drivers To Consider

Kentucky Review

• William Byron (26.50 DK pts)

• Ryan Blaney (33.00 DK)

• Erik Jones (69.75 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at New Hampshire that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Clint Bowyer ($8,400 DK, $9,400 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kentucky Review

• Daniel Hemric (3.50 DK pts): Fell all the way to 24th, only needed two more spots to go negative.

New Hampshire Pick

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

DiBenedetto is usually one of my favorite drivers to roster but I wouldn't go near him with with a 10 foot pole on Sunday. Starting 7th, he has nowhere to go but down and I don't need that in my life.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 CheatSheet and find me on twitter. Good Luck!