Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Quaker State 400 🏁

NASCAR can't seem to get away from the rain this season and last week's race was another victim. After being delayed a day, the race ended in dramatic fashion during a caution.....if there is such a thing.... and proved that literally anything can happen at Daytona. This week, we luck out because there is only a 2% chance that weather will affect NASCAR's yearly trip to Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, KY for the Quaker State 400. Kentucky is a 1.5 mile D-shaped oval that is best known for its variable banking (turns 3 and 4 are much flatter than turns 1 and 2). Looking at the specs, there is only a couple of degree difference between the turns but it makes a world of difference in how the drivers have to approach the corners. We will also see big black patches on the track Saturday Night because NASCAR decided to put track compound in the middle and top grooves in the hopes of making this a three lane race to increase passing and drafting. One last note, this is another impound race, so the starting lineup will not be official until after inspection Saturday afternoon (starting 1:30 pm). If any car fails inspection, their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will start and be scored from the rear.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Yeley, Tifft, Dillon. Haley. Lajoie. Cassill 375.25 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Dillon, Haley, Johnson, Lajoie, Newman, Wallace 359.75 DK pts. Min cash: 175.25 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Dillon, Haley, Johnson, Lajoie, Newman, Wallace 359.75 DK pts. Min cash: 181.50 DK pts.

$250K Firecracker: DiBendetto, Dillon, Haley, Lajoie, Newman, Tifft 370.75 DK pts. Min cash: 206.25 DK pts.

On to Kentucky!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 115 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

***This is an impound race so the lineup will not be official until inspection is complete Saturday afternoon. Inspection starts at 1:30 pm and I will try to update everyone via chat and Twitter about how things are progressing. Make sure to follow along and help each other out. If a driver fails inspection, their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will be moved to the rear of the field for real life and DFS purposes (they will be scored from the rear of the field). This newsletter is based off of the unofficial starting lineup and the driver recommendations are subject to change as inspection progresses. As always, I will be in chat to answer any questions and provide any updates.

Dominators will once again be important on Saturday night. Each of the last six races had at least one driver that led more than 100 laps. There were two other races where a "mini-dominator" emerged that led 62 and 75 laps respectively. In the last six races, seven of the nine drivers that led 62 or more laps started either first or second, and the other two drivers started 3rd and 9th. Clean air is very important at Kentucky, and with the new package, I believe it will be the key to domination.

In recent years, passing has also been very difficult at Kentucky. This will make us want to front load our lineups more than most tracks. Each of the last three perfect lineups had at least three drivers that started in the top 14 (including dominators) and they all had at least two drivers that started 20th or worse. The drivers starting 20th or worse will not have to move too far forward, often times picking up a spot or two is enough to get them in the perfect lineup (price and finishing position dependent).

We will also be looking for one bargain basement driver that we think can pick up at least 10 places or finish in the top 25.

Overall, we are going to want to roster three drivers that start in the top 15 (two that we think can dominate and one that we think will pick up some spots and maybe lead a few laps) and three drivers that start 20th or worse (two that can pick up a few spots and pay off their salary and one cheap driver that can finish in the top 25),

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Daytona Review:

• Brendan Gaughan (45.50 DK pts): Surprisingly highly owned and paid off his salary easily with a 19th place finish but did not score well enough to make the perfect/winning lineups.

• Ross Chastain (22.00 DK pts): Mechanical issues put him a couple laps down early and he was never able to recover.

Kentucky Picks:

Denny Hamlin ($9,100 DK, $10,700 FD)

There is no clear cut dominator to choose from, so I am going to build my lineups around solid place differential drivers and sprinkle in my dominators. I know I didn't mention much about place differential in the lineup construction section, but previous races did not have drivers that were relatively underpriced starting this far back. Hamlin is starting 18th but has top 5 potential. He is not a likely dominator, but if he finishes in the top 5, the 13 place differential points he would pick up is as good as 52 laps led. He is cheaper than Larson who starts one spot further back, so I am hoping he goes overlooked, even though I think Hamlin has the higher floor and ceiling.

Brad Keselowski ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Clean air is very important and starting third, Keselowski is going to have to do a little work to get it. Kes is familiar with leading laps and winning at Kentucky, leading at least 38 laps in six of eight races here with three wins. He has never been the major dominator here but I expect him to get the lead early and hold on to it for a good chunk of laps until the major dominator emerges.

Tournament Targets

Daytona Review:

• Michael McDowell (46.50 DK pts): McDowell did it again, finishing 13th but he was not able to fit into the perfect lineup.

• Corey Lajoie (62.00 DK pts):The shining star of the newsletter, Lajoie started 30th and finished 6th on his way to the perfect lineup and his best score of the season.

• Erik Jones (17.00 DK pts): Didn't boom, didn't bust, just lost a few spots

Kentucky Picks:

Martin Truex Jr ($11,000 DK , $13,000 FD)

The three most likely major dominators are Truex Jr, Harvick and Kyle Busch (I like Kes more than some of these three but we already talked about him). Harvick has been surprisingly good at 1.5 mile tracks this season but hasn't been able to seal the deal and sometimes struggles with night races. Kyle Busch is the only driver since 2015 with more night race wins than Truex Jr but was not happy with his car after second practice and is the most expensive driver on the slate. I would never count Busch out, but I think Truex is the best option of the bunch. Starting 8th is not ideal for him, but if he is patient, he should be able to move up front by the start of the second stage. Truex completely dominated the last two races here, leading 176 and 152 laps respectively on his way to two wins. I originally expected him to be the highest owned driver on the slate but with his elevated price, poor practice times and less than perfect starting position, his ownership may be depressed. While we are on the subject of practice times, he did not look great in practice on Friday but we have to remember this is a impound race, so the teams will not be able to work on the cars before the race starts. I think he has his car set up for night racing and that is why the results weren't there for the daytime practices (it's just a theory but he had terrible practice times last year too and we saw what he did then).

Alex Bowman ($8,500 DK , $11,200 FD)

Bowman is one of those drivers that I always want to play but then qualifies much better than I want him to. Starting 22nd, Bowman finally starts somewhere that I am comfortable with, so I am going way overweight. His track history is terrible but his recent form is excellent, with five top 15 finishes including a win in the six races at 1.5 mile tracks this year. Bowman posted the 14th and 17th best single lap times on Friday and had the 8th best 10 lap average in the first practice, which makes me think he has enough speed in his car to make the race interesting.

David Ragan ($5,700 DK , $4,500 FD)

Ragan is the low floor, low ceiling driver I try to avoid but we are going to need salary relief somewhere and this is actually a good track for him. He has gained spots in each of the last three races here including an 18th place finish and has a season high finish of 15th at 1.5 mile tracks. Any minor slip up will torpedo any lineup he is in, but that is why he is my tricky pick of the week. There's just enough upside to make him intriguing.

Bargain Bin

Daytona Review

• Kyle Larson (17.50 DK Pts): The real bargain bin won the race but Larson finished 20th, at least he didn't wreck.

Kentucky Picks

Matt Tifft ($5,400 DK, $3,500 FD)

I liked Tifft at Chicago for the same reason I like him on Saturday, he has gained spots in every race at a 1.5 mile track this year. His single lap time in first practice and 10 lap average in second practice were both impressive and that gives me hope that he can be the highest scoring driver in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Daytona Review

• Matt DiBenedetto. (56.00 DK pts)

• Parker Kligerman (19.50 DK)

• Jimmie Johnson (53.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kentucky that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

William Byron ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($8,300 DK, $10,400 FD)

Erik Jones ($8,900 DK, $8,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daytona Review

• Brad Keselowski (-30.50 DK pts): Nailed my first blow up in a while, Kes only lasted 85 laps and finished 39th.

Kentucky Pick

Daniel Hemric ($6,300 DK, $6,000 FD)

Not to go after low hanging fruit, but there is no way Hemric finds his way into any of my lineups. Hemric is starting 6th but hasn't finished better than 19th at any 1.5 mile track this season. His practice times were not great, 19th and 18th best single lap times and 5th and 18th best 10 lap average. If someone wins $50,000 with Hemric in their lineup, good for them. But it won't be me.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Quaker State 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!