Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed their 4th of July and you're ready for an action packed race as NASCAR makes their second trip of the season to Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Daytona is a 2.5 mile tri-oval and was one of the two tracks on the NASCAR circuit that required a restrictor plate. Notice that I said WAS, because this will be the first race here since 1988 without a restrictor plate in place. This race will also take place on Saturday night, so adjust your routine accordingly.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Byron, Stenhouse Jr., Larson, Johnson, Bowman, Blaney 356.75 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Byron, Stenhouse Jr., Larson, Johnson, Bowman, Blaney 356.75 DK pts. Min cash: 251.25 DK pts.

$250K First Gear: Bowman, Harvick, Johnson, Larson, Stenhouse Jr., Tifft 342.75 DK pts. Min cash: 254.75 DK pts.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run and 40 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 120 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 60 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Qualifying was canceled Friday night so the field was set by driver points. Therefore, all of the big name drivers are starting in the front and all of the lesser known drivers are starting in the rear. As mentioned above, this will be the first race at Daytona without a restrictor plate in over 20 years but this is not the first time we have seen this package at a plate track. NASCAR ran this package at Talladega this year and even though there may not have been a true "Big One," there were three wrecks throughout the race that involved five or more cars. Drafting played a big part in practice on Thursday, so I think there will be big packs like usual here but I do worry about the potential for a massive wreck due the higher downforce (shown by Byron's ability to hold on when getting rear ended by Kes).

This week we are going to want to employ cash and GPP strategies. In cash, roster 6 drivers starting worse than 30th and call it a day, even if there aren't any major wrecks, there should be some serious attrition and as long as you minimize the risk in your lineup, you will have a decent chance to cash. Do not be afraid of leaving $5,000-$10,000 worth of salary on the table this week, that is just the nature of the race.

In GPPs we will be looking at a more nuanced approach. We will want to target four to five drivers starting worse than 25th and one to two drivers starting from 10-24. If you are making 50+ lineups (this is a great weekend to do it) I would suggest not playing more than 1-2% on drivers starting in the top 10, 10-15% in drivers starting 10th-20th, 15=20% on drivers starting 21st-26th and 30%+ on drivers starting 27th or worse. A driver starting in the top 10 has been in the perfect lineup in four of the last seven races at Daytona but you have to hit that driver perfectly because any driver starting that far forward that wrecks will put up a massive negative score. We will want to structure our GPP lineups to have a solid floor but have access to a ceiling that will differentiate us from the crowd.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 50 laps, Stage 2: 50 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chicagoland Review:

• Kevin Harvick (66.50 DK pts): Harvick completely dominated the race, leading132 laps and posting 31 fastest laps....and then he decided to drive into the wall. He was in a winning lineup but was another week of what could have been.

• Daniel Suarez (27.25 DK pts): The highest owned driver of the slate but he put up a complete dud, only picking up one spot.

Daytona Picks:

Brendan Gaughan ($7,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Any other week I would laugh at Gaughan's price but it's Daytona baby! Gaughan is an awesome plate driver but doesn't run a full schedule, so he is starting 39th. He has a positive place differential in four the last five races at Daytona including a 7th, 11th and 12th place finish. He was highly owned during the 500 and slightly disappointed too. I can't wait to go back to the well at hopefully lower ownership.

Ross Chastain ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

Chastain is running an exhausting schedule competing in Trucks, Xfinity and Cup series races but he has shown that he is a more than capable driver when he is given the proper equipment. His Cup car is not the best but starting 37th, it doesn't have to be. Chastain is one of the best drivers starting worse than 30th and I feel more comfortable rostering him than most other drivers in the field.

Tournament Targets

Chicagoland Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (48.00 DK pts): Birthday narrative didn't do much for Truex, finished 9th but didn't put up a good enough score to be a factor.

• Chris Buescher (35.50 DK pts): Pulled off another top 20 and ran in the top 10 for a while but faded toward the end.

• Ryan Newman (26.75 DK pts): Lost one spot and led one lap.

Daytona Picks:

Michael McDowell ($5,700 DK , $5,500 FD)

McDowell is one of those unassuming drivers that you stumble upon while doing research that makes you scratch your head. He has three top 10 finishes in the last four races at Daytona and five top 15's in the last six. Due to qualifying being cancelled, he is starting further back than usual. But I think that adds to his ceiling. I secretly wish he will go overlooked but am expecting him to be relatively heavily owned.

Corey Lajoie ($5,200 DK , $4,500 FD)

Lajoie is starting 30th Saturday night and is a driver that has not been afraid to put up a huge score this season. He has a positive place differential in four of five races here and has a high finish of 11th. He has a fast enough car to stay with the pack and should add another top 20 to his resume if he stays clean.

Erik Jones ($8,800 DK , $8,200 FD)

We are going to need a driver starting further forward if we want to takedown a tournament and Jones has the type of ceiling we are looking for. He is boom or bust on a good day and when you add Daytona to the mix, things just get more stressful. Starting 17th, he is a little past our comfort zone but in five Cup races at Daytona he has a win, 3rd, 9th and two accidents. He will need to be on top of his game on Saturday night, but if he is, he can pay off handsomely.

Bargain Bin

Chicagoland Review

• Bubba Wallace (20.00 DK Pts): Wallace ran a solid race but since Tifft was the only driver to fail inspection he pretty much became a lock.

Daytona Picks

Kyle Larson ($9,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

This is a topsy turvy newsletter so why not write up a high priced driver in the bargain basement section? Larson is another driver that is starting further forward than we would like for cash that can provide GPP winning upside. He has three top 7 finishes in his last seven races here and posted acceptable practice times on Thursday. He has been incredibly accident prone all season, so I am hoping that keeps people way and gives us a bit of an edge.

Other Drivers To Consider

Chicagoland Review

• Rickie Stenhouse Jr. (45.50 DK pts)

• Paul Menard (28.00 DK)

• Erik Jones (51.75 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,400 DK, $5,000 FD)

Parker Kligerman ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($7,900 DK, $8,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chicagoland Review

• Daniel Hemric (12.50 DK pts): Hemric pulled off a top 20 finish but when you start 3rd, that's not something you aim for.

Daytona Pick

Brad Keselowski ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Keselowski loves to wreck here, with four accidents in the last five races. He did manage to dominate in July of 2016 with 115 laps led and the win. But overall, I will be avoiding him and the rest of the top 5 and just wait for the fireworks to happen.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coke Zero Sugar 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!