Written by @joejets19

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NASCAR Camping World 400 🏁

After a relatively uneventful road course race, NASCAR returns to their bread and butter when they make their yearly trip to Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, IL for the Camping World 400. Chicagoland is a 1.5 mile asphalt tri-oval with banking the whole way around. Almost every driver has mentioned the bumps all over the track but they don't seem to cause too much trouble because there have been an average of 4 cautions over the last 3 races here. There are some spot showers in the forecast for Sunday afternoon but the race shouldn't have a problem being completed. They will be running the standard package, low horse power and aeroducts, but this is the sixth race this year at 1.5 mile tracks with this package, so we have a decent idea how the cars will run. The starting lineup will not be official until after inspection on Sunday morning, so it is very important to follow along on Twitter or chat to see how everything shakes out.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Jones, Newman, Truex Jr, DiBenedetto, Blaney, Almirola 336.25 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Almirola, DiBenedetto, Hamlin, Jones, Newman, Truex Jr. 329.75 DK pts.  Min cash: 233.00 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Almirola, Bowyer, DiBenedetto, Jones, Newman, Truex Jr. 326.75 DK pts. Min cash: 236.50 DK pts.

$250K Piston: Jones, Newman, Truex Jr, DiBenedetto, Blaney, Almirola 336.25 DK pts. Min cash: 241.50 DK pts.

On to Chicagoland

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 265 laps will be run and 22.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 243 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 121.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

***The starting lineup is not going to be official until each car passes inspection starting 9am Sunday morning. If any car fails inspections once, their qualifying time is disallowed and they will be moved to the rear of the field for both NASCAR and DFS scoring. If any car fails three times, they will have to move to the rear and do a pass through (start the race one lap down essentially). I will be basing the rest of the newsletter on the unofficial starting lineup but many things can change between now and the start of the race. It is very important to be active in chat and follow along on Twitter for any breaking news and update.***

Chicagoland is one of the only 1.5 mile race tracks that doesn't have a guaranteed dominator. Only two of the last six races here have had a driver lead more than 100 laps and the driver who led the most laps has been in the perfect lineup only once in the last three races. The new package will only add to the chaos and I wouldn't be surprised if we see another race where several drivers lead more than 50 laps but no one leads more than 100. The difference between leading laps and scoring well and leading laps and scoring poorly is finishing positions, most drivers that have been able to make their way up front have come from the top 15, so we are going to want two or three drivers that start well and finish well.

Due to the Sunday inspection, there will be a driver or two that qualified and practiced well but get moved to the rear for violation. Depending on how everything plays out, we are going to want to roster some of those drivers in GPPs and most of those drivers in cash. That is a very big distinction because at this track it is much more likely that a driver posts a huge score via place differential than a true dominator emerges. Any driver that is moved to the rear will automatically become very chalky so that is where GPP leveraging becomes important. You will want to play some lineups that have a few chalky drivers mixed in with drivers starting up front that can finish well.

Bargain drivers may become exceptionally risky if they pass inspection because instead of being scored from their usual 30+ starting position, they may start in the top 25 and one mishap can torpedo a lineup.

In summary, for cash we are going to want to load up on any decent driver that gets their qualifying time disallowed. In GPPs we will want to be selective of which drivers we choose from the back and sprinkle in a few drivers starting in the top 15 that we think can lead some laps and possibly win.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Sonoma Review:

• Clint Bowyer (39.00 DK pts): Disappointing only finishing 11th but was actually in a winning lineup, so I'll take that.

• Erik Jones (60.50 DK pts): Chalky and he didn't blow up! Jones moved all the way up to 8th and was in every winning and perfect lineup.

Chicagoland Picks: 

Kevin Harvick ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

After spending all that time talking about the de-emphasis of dominators this week...I love Harvick. There is a common saying that if Harvick loves his car, you should love it too and this is one of those weeks. Starting 2nd, Harvick shouldn't have too much trouble taking the lead early from Austin Dillon and judging by his top single lap and 10 lap average times on Saturday, he should be able to hold the lead for most of the first stage and beyond. This is the same car that Harvick drove at Kansas that he led 102 laps in until he drove over someone's tear away and I think he is primed to put up a similar performance.

Daniel Suarez ($7,400 DK, $9,700 FD)

Suarez is getting a significant price discount this weekend and is starting 29th. He has a decent history here with a 11th and 12th place finish in his two races but what makes me feel very confident in him is his current form. Suarez has not finished worse than 18th this year at a 1.5 mile track and has two top 10 finishes. If he passes inspection, he may become overlooked pretty quickly, especially if he starts in the top 20. And that's when I would really want to load up because a top 10 is well within reach at that point.

Tournament Targets

Sonoma Review:

• Aric Almirola (42.00 DK pts): Outscored both Kurt Busch and Clint Bowyer on his way to the perfect lineup thanks to a 9th place finish.

• Paul Menard (25.50 DK pts): Only picked up two spots.

• Matt DiBenedetto (56.00 DK pts): The risk paid off in a big way, DiBenedetto finished 4th and was one of the highest scoring drivers of the slate.

Chicagoland Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900 DK , $14,500 FD)

Truex Jr. is receiving a ton of praise for being great at Chicagoland and deservedly so, he has won two of the last three races here and added a 4th place finish for good measure. This entire season he has practiced and qualified below his normal standards at 1.5 mile tracks. But on race day, he has proven to be a force, registering one win and two other top 8 finishes. I will be interested to see where he ends up actually starting on Sunday. He qualified 18th and if he moves forward, he will gain dominator potential and if he fails, he would be one of my favorite candidates for a place differential. As of right now it may be difficult to fit both Harvick and Truex into a lineup but it is doable and if any more value opens up, they may both be in the perfect lineup.

Chris Buescher ($6,800 DK , $7,600 FD)

If you told me back in February that Chris Buescher would be underpriced at $6,800 I would have laughed, but here we are. Despite having a poor qualifying performance, Buescher posted the 15th fastest single laps speed and 20th fastest 10 lap average in second practice, so there is speed in the car. He does not have the best track history but does have three top 10 finishes this year at 1.5 mile tracks and, starting 28th, I believe he has sneaky upside.

Ryan Newman ($7,600 DK , $8,500 FD)

Newman is a driver I usually like but I have not gotten right this year very often. He makes an appearance as the "risky driver of the week" because he is starting further forward than some more popular options (named above) and he is also fairly expensive. He has not finished in the top 10 at a 1.5 mile track this year but has shown the ability to move forward and that is what I am looking for on Sunday.

Bargain Bin

Sonoma Review

• Parker Kligerman (13.00 DK Pts): Not great and not terrible, didn't help anyone win money.

Chicagoland Picks

Bubba Wallace ($5,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

This is another ugly week for this range and I am whole heartedly rooting for an inspection failure for Wallace. He is one of the few drivers under $6000 that actually has speed in his car, but starting 27th his ceiling is capped. I don't think he has a chance to finish in the top 20 because he loves hitting things. But if he moved back in the field, he has a ton of upside for the price.

Other Drivers To Consider

Sonoma Review

• Kevin Harvick (56.00 DK pts)

• Kyle Busch (52.25 DK)

• Ty Dillon (21.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Chicagoland that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Rickie Stenhouse Jr. ($7,100 DK, $8,700 FD)

Paul Menard ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($8,900 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Sonoma Review

• Kyle Larson (25.00 DK pts): Larson finally got his first top 10 at Sonoma but didn't lead any laps or add any fastest laps, brutal.

Chicagoland Pick

Daniel Hemric ($6,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Hemric has not been overly impressive this season from a DFS perspective and I don't think he's going to have his coming out party on Sunday. Starting third, he has nowhere to go but down and I don't want anything to do with that lead balloon.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Camping World 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!