Written by @joejets19 

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NASCAR Toyota/ Save Mart 350 🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed the Father's Day break and you're ready to see some right turns as NASCAR heads to Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma California, for the Toyota/Save Mart 350. Sonoma is the first road course of the season, featuring 12 turns and 160 feet of elevation change. NASCAR has chosen to go back to the original 2.52 mile layout which will include "the Carousel" which is a very tight hairpin turn that added more than 0.5 miles to the traditional course that the series ran. They will be running the high horsepower package with no aeroducts, so the cars should be running similar to how they ran last year. But with the track modification, there is an extra added level of mystery.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Newman, Suarez, Logano, Buescher, Bowman, Kurt Busch 333.50 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Newman, Suarez, Logano, Buescher, Bowman, Kurt Busch 333.50 DK pts.  Min cash: 240.75 DK pts.

$100K Chrome Horn: Newman, Suarez, Logano, Buescher, Bowman, Kurt Busch 333.50 DK pts. Min cash: 242.25 DK pts.

$250K Piston: Bowman, Buescher, DiBenedetto, Logano, Suarez, Truex Jr. 326.00 DK pts. Min cash: 290.5 DK pts.Min cash: 240.50 DK pts.

On to Sonoma!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 90 laps will be run and 22.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 80 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 40 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

If you thought finishing position was important last week, this week it is almost the only thing that matters. Road races are not kind to dominators. Historically, 110 laps were run at Sonoma and only once in the last 3 races has a driver led more than 33 laps. This year, only 90 laps will be run, further lowering the total number of dominator points available and placing more of an emphasis on finishing position. Each of the last 3 perfect lineups had the race winner in it as well as at least 3 other drivers that finished in the top 10 (two lineups contained 5 drivers that finished in the top 10). The final driver in the lineup picked up at least 8 spots and should have a 20 upside.

This is another race where we will want to front load our lineups, 15/18 drivers in the last 3 perfect lineups started in the top 25 and each of those lineups had at least four drivers starting in the top 20. Low priced drivers will have a roll this week, not to help us fit in studs but to enable us to build a balanced yet top heavy lineup.

Overall, we are looking to have a lineup with at least four drivers starting in the top 20 that we think will gain spots and finish in the top 10, one driver starting 20-25 that we think can make a big move, ideally into the top 10-12 and one driver starting worse than 25th that can pick up at least 8 spots and finish in the top 20.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 20 laps, Stage 2: 20 laps, Stage 3: 50 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Michigan Review:

• Joey Logano (90.25 DK pts): Logano completely dominated the race, leading 163 laps and winning the race. He only picked up 7 fastest laps though, so he left some points on the table.

• Erik Jones (-2.50 DK pts): Car trouble killed him, he was making a recovery but then had a tire blow in the last 5 laps.

Sonoma Picks:

Clint Bowyer ($9,300 DK, $12,000 FD)

Bowyer is a monster at Sonoma and qualified poorly enough to give him a very nice ceiling. He has finished in the top 10 in seven of the last eight races here and finished in the top 3 in three of the last four. He is starting 14th but ran the 7th and 4th fastest laps in the first two practices and ran the fastest 10 lap average in the second practice (as well as the second fastest 15 lap average).

Erik Jones ($8,100 DK, $9,700 FD)

Friday Night: "I will not let Erik Jones ruin my Sunday again! I will not let Erik Jones ruin my Sunday again! I will not let Erik Jones ruin my Sunday again! "

Saturday Afternoon: "Even if he blows up, at least he won't go negative."

Jones had a tire issue in qualifying and is starting 32nd on Sunday. I mentioned earlier that we are going to need a driver to gain 10 spots and finish in the top 20 and I think he Jones is the best candidate. He gained spots in both races here, including a 7th place finish last year. His practice times didn't blow us out of the water but he will have a much better car than a number of drivers in front of him, so he should be able to pick up spots by patience alone. A word of caution, he is an interesting fade candidate because he needs a top 17 finish to reach value. He will be very highly owned but does need to run a good race to score well, so he isn't an absolute home run and any slip up will ruin a bunch of lineups.

Tournament Targets

Michigan Review:

• Chase Elliott (27.25 DK pts): Ran a good race, in the top 10 for most of the race but a late pit stop pushed him down to 22nd.

• Chris Buescher (46.00 DK pts): Highest owned driver of the race and he paid off in a big way, finishing 16th and adding 6 fastest laps.

• Daniel Suarez (49.75 DK pts): Practice and an equipment upgrade paid off for Suarez, he pulled off a 4th place finish on his way to the perfect lineup.

Sonoma Picks:

Aric Almirola ($8,000 DK , $9,600 FD)

Almirola has very quietly strung together a decent Sonoma history. He only has one top 10 finish here but has gained spots in each of his seven races here and will be starting 15th, sandwiched between Bowyer and Kurt Busch. Almirola posted the third best single lap time in the second practice and the eleventh best 10 lap average. I believe he will be the lowest owned out of Bowyer/Almirola/Kurt Busch but has a similar ceiling to Kurt, so give me the salary and the leverage.

Paul Menard ($7,200 DK , $7,600 FD)

Menard is a driver I try to find a reason to play but have been avoiding him all season for good reason. He has only topped 40 fantasy points once all season and hasn't ruined anyone's lineups but isn't winning anyone money either. Sunday can change that. Starting 24th, Menard practiced much better than he qualified and has a solid Sonoma history, posting a top 20 finish in seven of the last eight races here.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,500 DK , $7,000 FD)

The risky pick of the week goes to Matt DiBenedetto, who qualified 19th. He showed some promise in the second practice running with the fifth best single lap time and has shown an ability to gain spots at Sonoma, recording positive place differential in each of four races here. He only has one top 20 to his name, however, and does carry a lot of risk starting in the top 20. If he can pick up a few spots, he has a chance to be in the perfect lineup due to his relatively low price tag.

Bargain Bin

Michigan Review

• The fade worked out very well, the cheapest driver in a winning lineup was $6500 and only three drivers under $7000 reached 5x.

Sonoma Picks

Parker Kligerman ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

This is a gut call more than anything, Kligerman ran a decent race last year and has some speed in the car. It will be a tall task for him to hit the top 20 but I think he has the best chance in the price range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Michigan Review

• Alex Bowman (50.00 DK pts)

• Kyle Larson (43.00 DK)

• Austin Dillon (7.25 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Sonoma that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($11,200 DK, $14,500 FD)

Kyle Busch ($10,400 DK, $15,000 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,900 DK, $6,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michigan Review

• Denny Hamlin (30.25 DK pts): Hamlin didn't blow up but fell to 11th. He led 5 laps and added some fastest laps on his way to scoring just about exactly how many points I was expecting.

Sonoma Pick

Kyle Larson ($8,500 DK, $10,700 FD)

Read/Listen to this stat, Kyle Larson has started in the top 5 in each of his five races here and hasn't finished better than 12th. Let me remind you that this is before he turned into the one man wrecking crew that he has been this season. Naturally, that means he will lead wire to wire and completely dominate, but I am going to #trusttheprocess and fade Larson until he proves he can be trusted.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Toyota/SaveMart 250 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!