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NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 🏁

Our rain dances worked last week in Pocono and it looks like we may need to do them again this Sunday when NASCAR makes their first trip of the year to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan is a wide open 2 mile D-shaped oval track similar to Auto Club except it has slightly more banking and significantly less tire wear. Traditionally, Michigan was known as a track that separates the strong cars from the weak, and any separation of speeds became quickly noticeable. Due to the new package (550 hp and aeroducts), the top speed has been drastically reduced and there was only a 3 mph difference between the 1st and 30th fastest cars during practice Friday.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Buescher, Suarez, Hemric, Elliott, Kyle Busch, Byron 304.00 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Buescher, Suarez, Hemric, Elliott, Kyle Busch, Byron 304.00 DK pts.  Min cash: 222.00

$75K Slingshot: Buescher, Suarez, Hemric, Elliott, Kyle Busch, Byron 304.00 DK pts. Min cash: 224.25 DK pts.

$333K Piston: Buescher, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Hemric, Jones, Suarez 302.75 DK pts. Min cash: 290.5 DK pts.Min cash: 227.00 DK pts.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 167 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 83.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

The theme of this entire season has been uncertainty, and I think Michigan will be one the tracks that this package will really have an effect on. Last June, for example, the speed of the fastest lap run in practice was 202.617 mph where this Friday, the fastest speed was 188.882 mph. There was also a vast difference in the fastest and 30th fastest cars (5.292 mph last June vs 4.09 mph, which translates to almost 0.1 seconds per lap). All of this translates to cars being closer than they usually are and restarts may be entertaining, but ultimately, whoever grabs the clean air up front early will be hard to pass in the long run like previous years. The past 6 races at Michigan have only produced four drivers that have led more than 96 laps, and only three of those have finished in the perfect lineup. There will most likely only be one (if any major dominator) and if we want to craft the perfect lineup, we will most likely need him in it. Every driver that has led more than 100 laps in the last 6 races has started in the top 3 (and three of them started on the pole) and most of the drivers that led any significant amount of laps started in the top 15. This week, we will aim to roster one dominator.

If we can't rely on a dominator to propel us up the scoreboard, where do we look? This is the first race of the season where finishing position is the key to scoring well. The difference between place differential and finishing position being important is if a driver picks up 10 spots but only finishes 20th, they will score 34 points. But a driver that starts 7th and finishes 7th scores 37 points. While the first driver scored more place differential points, the second driver still outscored them because of finishing position points. Michigan is a low incident race with tough passing conditions so don't be afraid to pick drivers that start up front that we think will stay there. Five of the last six perfect lineups have had at least four drivers finish in the top 10 and they all had at least three drivers start in the top 10. Most of the drivers that did not finish in the top 10 picked up at least 10 places and finished in the top 20.

In summary, we will want to roster: 1 driver starting in the top 3 we think can dominate, 2-3 drivers that start in the top 15 that we think can finish in the top 10 and 2-3 drivers that can pick up at least 10 spots and finish in the top 30.

On a side note, if anyone wants to see the definition of a perfect lineup, check out the 8/13/17 Michigan race in the perfect lineups tab in the cheatsheet.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Pocono Review:

• Kyle Busch (91.25 DK pts): Busch was not as dominant as I hoped, yet again, but he was in the perfect lineup, so I can't complain.

• Kurt Busch (43 DK pts): Kurt was also kind of disappointing, finishing 11th but that was still enough to land him in the Piston's winning lineup.

Michigan Picks:

Joey Logano ($9,700 DK, $13,500 FD)

We take a break from our weekly Kevin Harvick vs Kyle Busch debate to move on to Harvick/Almirola/Logano. We are going to want to build around a top 3 driver as a potential dominator and they all have their merits. Almirola showed the best long run car of the 3, leading the field in 15 and 20 lap average in the final practice but has a slightly slower car than Logano in single laps speeds. Harvick has the best history here, dominating both races last season including a win and posting four top 5 finishes in the last six races here. I, however, think Logano has the best chance to dominate and is only the 6th highest priced driver. The last time Logano started on the pole he led 138 laps on the way to a win and since then has four other top 10 finishes. His practice times didn't jump off the page on Friday but he did have the best car during qualifying, and since this is a impound race, he theoretically will have the fast car on Sunday. The game-changer for me is the clean air and I hope that will lead him to domination. Every driver in the top 3 deserves some ownership but I like Logano the most.

Erik Jones ($8,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Jones is not a frequent flyer on the pitstop and it's mostly due to him qualifying well, limiting his place differential potential. This week, however, that is exactly what I am looking for. Jones starts 14th on Sunday but had top 7 single lap speeds and top 3 10 laps averages on Friday. His history might not look great despite his 11th place average finish, but that is mostly due to him qualifying very well.

Tournament Targets

Pocono Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (-5.50 DK pts): Who blows an engine these days?

• David Ragan (12.00 DK pts): Lost three spots, not great.

• Alex Bowman (29.00 DK pts): Bowman was my risky play because he could either crush it or turn in an "eh" performance.... Starting 15th and finishing 15th is what I call "eh."

Michigan Picks:

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK , $12,500 FD)

Elliott is another non-frequent flyer that provides the type of upside we are looking for this weekend. Starting 17th, Elliott is not a potential dominator but that's OK. All we need is a top 8 or so and that's his specialty. In six races here, Elliott has six top 10 finishes and three second place finishes. He struggled in the first practice but was able to turn in the 13th best single lap and 9th best 10 lap average in second practice. And since we don't need him to dominate, he has all race to make his way up front patiently.

Chris Buescher ($7,200 DK , $7,300 FD)

Buescher has been a favorite of mine for a while and for good reason. He has been in the perfect lineup each of the last two races and we are going to try to ride him one more week. I will offer this caveat, he is going to be very highly owned because he is one of the only drivers starting worse than 30th that has a quality car, but sometimes in NASCAR DFS it's ok to eat chalk. Buescher is starting 31st but posted the 10th and 22nd best 10 lap averages and has three top 20 finishes to his name.

Daniel Suarez ($7,700 DK , $9,300 FD)

Suarez is my risky pick of the week due to his terrible track history. Suarez is starting 9th and practiced very well, so we do have some hope. But in four races here, he only has one finish better than 24th. We have seen him perform well this season at tracks he historically struggles at, so he will be a boom or bust option. He fits our theme of drivers starting forward that we think can hang on and if he can finish anywhere better than 9th, he has a shot at being in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Bin

Pocono Review

• Corey Lajoie (5.00 DK pts):Lajoie felt kind of chase-y and he ended up blowing up in our face...at least he only lost 3 spots.

• JJ Yeley (13.00 DK pts):Yelley wasn't much better, picking up 3 spots.

Michigan Picks

I am fading almost all of the drivers priced under $6,000 this week. In the last six races there have only been three drivers priced under $6,000 to make it in the perfect lineup. But this year those cars either qualified better than they practiced or were just terribly slow. If there is one car from this range in the perfect lineup I will take the L and move on.

Other Drivers To Consider

Pocono Review

• Ty Dillon (15.50 DK pts)

• Brad Keselowski (48.00 DK)

• Chris Buescher (40.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Michigan that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($8,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Kyle Larson ($9,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Austin Dillon ($6,800 DK, $8,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Pocono Review

• Clint Bowyer (39.00 DK pts): Bowyer didn't blow up and even finished 5th but he was outscored by most of the drivers in his price range, even Chris Buescher. So I'll chalk that up to a successful fade.

Michigan Pick

Denny Hamlin ($8,900 DK, $11,500)

Hamlin is another #fadethefade candidate but I think this will play out kind of like last week's driver. Hamlin was terrible in practice and posted negative place differential in five of the last six races here even though he owns three top 10 finishes in that time. Hamlin has about as equal of a chance to blow up as he does to dominate, which I put at about 10%. But he will most likely just hang out in the top 10, not lead any laps and finish up with 30-something points.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the FireKeepers Casino 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!