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NASCAR Pocono 400 🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend and the marathon of a race on Sunday. NASCAR is making their first trip of the season to Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA. Known as "The Tricky Triangle," Pocono is a 2.5 mile triangular shaped flat track that earns its name due to the three unique corners and three straight-aways of different length. The cars will be equipped with the full package this week (low HP and aeroducts) and they have tweaked the gear ratio so we may see some blown engines if the drivers are not careful. We are going to have to stay on top of the weather reports for Sunday because there is rain in the forecast and since the track does not have lights and is difficult to dry, a Monday race is not out of the picture.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Logano, Ragan, Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, Buescher, Lajoie 422.50 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Buescher, Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Lajoie, Tifft, Truex Jr 415.75 DK pts. Min cash: 269.50

$100K Slingshot: Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Lajoie, Menard, Ragan, Truex Jr 387 DK pts. Min cash: 275.50 DK pts.

$333K Piston: Logano, Ragan, Truex Jr, Kyle Busch, Buescher, Lajoie 422.50 DK pts. Min cash: 290.5 DK pts.Min cash: 279.50 DK pts.

On to Pocono!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run and 40 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 135 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 67.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Pocono is the shortest race of the season so far and the strategy is a little different than previous ones. The race is scheduled for 160 laps, so dominator points will be limited (40 laps led points and approximately 67.5 fastest laps points). In the last 6 races here, the most dominant drivers have led : 52, 89, 74, 100, 38 and 51 laps. Five of the last six perfect lineups have had the lap leader in them but we really want to focus on drivers who can make big moves and finish in the top 15 as opposed to loading up on potential dominators. Four of the last five perfect lineups have had at least 3 drivers starting 20th or worse and all of them have included the race winner. Low priced drivers are also going to be in play this weekend, there are usually a decent amount of drivers that run into problems at the Tricky Triangle and a cheap driver can sneak into the top 20 and find themselves in the winning lineup.

Overall, we are going to want to pick one to two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can either win or lead 50 laps and finish in the top 10, three drivers that start 20th or worse that can make a big move forward and then one driver that may not start too far back but can pick up a few spots and finish in the top 15.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 50 laps, Stage 2: 50 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Charlotte Review:

• Kyle Busch (86.75 DK pts): Not as dominant as expected but 79 laps led and 52 fastest laps were good enough to get him into the perfect lineup.

• Brad Keselowski (64 DK pts): A late blown tire killed a great race for Kes but he boosted his floor with 76 laps led and 36 fastest laps. He was not in the perfect lineup but made it into one winning lineup.

Pocono Picks:

Kyle Busch ($11,400 DK, $15,500 FD)

I know I am sounding like a broken record but I think Kyle Busch has the best chance to be the major dominator on Sunday. Busch is starting 2nd and has an exceptional record here in the last four races, including two wins and 239 total laps led (37.1%). He has not been his usual dominant self when given the opportunity but his top 5 single lap times and top 10 lap average gives me confidence.

Kurt Busch ($8,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

This weekend I am going with a Busch double-dip to build my lineups around. Kyle is my dominator and I like Kurt as a big mover. Starting 21st, Busch only needs to finish in the top 10 to reach value and I see that as his floor. He has four top 10 finishes in the last six races here including a win and he practiced well on Friday.

Tournament Targets

Charlotte Review:

• Jimmie Johnson (43.50 DK pts): Johnson pulled off the top 10 I was looking for but it wasn't enough to land him in the perfect lineup.

• Ryan Newman (30.5 DK pts): Newman only picked up two spots which was serviceable but not spectacular.

• Matt Tifft (30.50 DK pts): Starting in the rear killed his ownership but made Tifft a solid Q play. He surprisingly paid off but was only in one perfect lineup.

Pocono Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,900 DK , $14,000 FD)

Truex is starting one spot further forward than Kurt Busch and is $2100 more expensive, making him an interesting pivot or companion. Truex is one of the few high priced movers in the field this weekend and has a nice recent history with three top 6 finishes and a win in the last four races at Pocono. He posted the 10th best single lap times in both practices on Friday and did not have a 10 lap run but he should have one of the faster cars on Sunday. Drivers are saying passing will be hard and he is not used to starting this far back in the field here but I like his chances to get up front and stay there.

David Ragan ($6,100 DK , $5,500 FD)

The way qualifying played out on Saturday, the high priced drivers will start in the front of the field and the lower priced drivers are starting further back. We will need low priced drivers that have a decent floor and access to a ceiling and I believe Ragan provides just that. Pocono is one of Ragan's best tracks, logging 7 straight races with positive place differential and three top 20 finishes in that time frame. A top 20 finish is what we are aiming for on Sunday and even though his practice times aren't perfect I believe he will be able to pick up a few spots on attrition alone.

Alex Bowman ($8,500 DK , $10,000 FD)

My risky pick of the week is an odd one this weekend because I believe Bowman is not so much a boom or bust pick as much as a boom or eh pick. Bowman is currently one of the hotter mid-tier drivers and is not starting far enough back to be a home run pick but has top 5 potential. He finished 3rd here in July but his history besides that is not impressive. I am hoping Bowman goes overlooked this weekend due to his increased price and starting position, making him a nice buy-low option.

Bargain Bin

Charlotte Review

• Ross Chastain (7.50 DK pts): Lost 1 spot and didn't come close to finishing the race.

• Parker Kligerman (28.5 DK pts):Picked up 8 spots but didn't come anywhere close to Lajoie.

Pocono Picks

Corey Lajoie ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

Lajoie was the darling of Charlotte and, at the risk of being a day late, I like his chances at Pocono. Lajoie is starting 33rd but has a car better than at least 4 drivers starting further forward than him. Pocono is a big track, so there is less of a chance of him getting lapped quickly, which will help him actually make a pass or two. Another thing in Lajoie's favor is a decent track history, he has a 26th and 28th place finish in his back pocket.

JJ Yeley ($4,900 DK)

One of the few drivers priced under$5000 this week, Yeley does not have a good car but he is starting last and, if he can avoid any trouble, he may reach value on attrition alone. I know that isn't a ringing endorsement but he does have a 25th place finish to his name.

Other Drivers To Consider

Charlotte Review

• Martin Truex Jr (129.50 DK pts)

• Bubba Wallace (23.50 DK)

• Chris Buescher (55.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Pocono that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($7,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,700 DK, $6,200 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Charlotte Review

• Joey Logano (54.00 DK pts): Naturally, all things broke for Logano to end up in the perfect lineup (Hamlin and Kes blown tires) and Logano had a real chance of winning it in the end.

Pocono Pick

Clint Bowyer ($9,100 DK, $10,700)

Only one of my possible fades panned out last weekend and the #fadethefade movement should actually be picking up steam at this point. This week, I set my sights on Bowyer, who is starting 3rd but only has one top 10 finish in his last six races here. I don't think he has a shot to lead any laps and with virtually no place differential points possible, he may not blow up. But I don't expect Bowyer to score more than 32 points.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Pocono 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!