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NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 🏁

After a weekend of All-Star festivities NASCAR keeps the season rolling with the Coca-Cola 600. The race will take place at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, North Carolina. This will be NASCAR's third-straight night race (counting the All-Star Race) and will take place on Sunday Night rather than Saturday night, so we get a little extra time to enjoy the holiday weekend and tinker with our lineups. Charlotte is a 1.5 mile quad-oval track with banked corners and a long straight away. NASCAR will be running its full package this weekend, aeroducts and all, which means the racing may play out different than the All-Star Race but drafting should still occur.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Elliott, Larson, Bowman, Almirola, Reddick, Suarez 389.50 DK pts.

$75K Slingshot: Almirola, Bowman, Elliott, Jones, Larson, Reddick 387 DK pts. .Min cash: 290.5 DK pts.

$250K Piston: Almirola, Bowman, Elliott, Jones, Larson, Reddick 387 DK pts. Min cash: 290.5 DK pts.Min cash: 291.25 DK pts.

On to Charlotte!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 175 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Charlotte has been home to some dominating performances over the years. The last three Coca-Cola 500s have had a driver lead more than 233 laps (377, 233, 392 to be precise) and the two fall races in the last three years have had at least one driver lead 100 laps (with two drivers in one race). The dominators have started from all over the field but most have come from the drivers starting in the top 3. To be safe, we are going to want to target two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can dominate or win.

While we want to focus on dominators, the rest of our lineup must consist of drivers that can optimize place differential/finishing position. This will include taking a few chances on drivers that are cheap and starting further forward than we are comfortable with in the hope they can pick up a few spots and some drivers that are starting in the 20's that can pick up at least 10 places. We will be digging in the bargain basement this weekend but that driver is going to have to finish in the top 30.

Overall, we are looking for two drivers starting in the top 10, three drivers starting 10-30 and one driver starting 30-40.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps Stage 4: 100 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kansas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (74.00 DK pts): Not in any perfect/winning lineups but he had his best race of the year with 104 laps led and 58 fast laps.

• Austin Dillon (25 DK pts): Started much further forward than anticipated and lost two spots.

Charlotte Picks:

Kyle Busch ($11,200 DK, $15,000 FD)

Kyle Busch is having a fantastic year and is my pick to dominate the race. He is starting 3rd and should have no problem getting past Byron/Almirola within the first few laps. One of my favorite stats that they show every weekend is how much faster his pitstops are than every other team, which he really utilizes to his advantage at stage breaks. Busch led 377 laps last year in this race on his way to the win and has led more than 100 laps three other times in his career at Charlotte. I don't foresee a repeat of last May on Sunday but I love his chances for at least 100 laps led and a top 10.

Brad Keselowski ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

Keselowski might not have as much dominator potential as some of the other drivers in his price range, but starting 21st, I love his floor and his chances to win. I haven't mentioned it yet, but this is the only 600 mile race on the NASCAR schedule and Keselowski can use that to his advantage by being patient and picking his way up to the front. Kes has five top 9 finishes in his last seven races here and has two wins so far this year at 1.5 mile tracks. A win or a top 5 with some laps led will almost guarantee him a spot in the perfect lineup

Tournament Targets

Kansas Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (37.50 DK pts): Started 31st after failing inspection but could only manage a 19th place finish.

• Tyler Reddick (47.5 DK pts): Carried much more risk starting further forward than anticipated but he delivered with a top 10.

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(40.75 DK pts): Like Harvick he was not in the perfect lineup but did turn in a solid performance, picking up three spots and even leading 11 laps.

Charlotte Picks:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,300 DK , $10,500 FD)

Jimmie Johnson is quietly rounding into form with top 10 finishes in three of the last six races including two top 6 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks. Charlotte is also one of Johnson's best tracks. He has four top 7 finishes in his last five races here. I highly doubt he can dominate the race but I love his chances of a top 10 with top 5 finish ceiling.

Ryan Newman ($7,600 DK , $8,300 FD)

Newman was part of the All-Star weekend fireworks with this altercation with Clint Bowyer and I hope it doesn't spill over to Sunday. Newman is one of those drivers that I don't expect a ton out of but has managed to be in three of the last five perfect lineups by picking up a few spots and running a clean race. While he hasn't been his usual self at 1.5 mile tracks this season, he does have five top 10 finishes in his last eight races at Charlotte.

Matt Tifft ($5,300 DK , $3,500 FD)

I hate using Bargain Bin drivers in any other section of the newsletter because there have been some slim pickings down there this season but I believe Tifft is a risky pick with serious upside. Starting 26th, Tifft only needs to pick up four spots to hit 5x and a top 20 finish would be a 30+ point day. Tifft has gained spots at every 1.5 mile track this season and has been finishing better every race.

Bargain Bin

Kansas Review

• Reed Sorensen (3.00 DK pts): Lost 6 spots pretty quickly.

• Matt Tifft (28.25 DK pts): Started 26th, finished 21st and even led a lap.

Charlotte Picks

Ross Chastain ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Chastain has one Cup race here and actually finished 24th. He only has one top 30 finish this season at 1.5 mile tracks but he has arguably the highest ceiling of any driver starting 30th or worse.

Parker Kligerman ($5,100 DK, $3,500 FD)

The only other driver I have any faith in whatsoever in this price range is Parker Kligerman. He owns a 27th place finish this year at Texas, and even though that is one of his better tracks, at least that gives us some hope.

Other Drivers To Consider

Kansas Review

• Denny Hamlin (24.00 DK pts)

• Ryan Blaney (-6.50 DK)

• Matt DIBenedetto (-8.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,100 DK, $6,400 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kansas Review

• Daniel Suarez (52.50 DK pts): Suarez was an auto-fade starting 4th but when he failed inspection he ended up starting 34th. In chat I explained I liked him less than Larson and Almirola and considering all three were in the perfect lineup, I'm not too sure what that counts for.

Charlotte Pick

Joey Logano ($9,900 DK, $14,000)

There are a ton of good fade candidates this weekend (Byron, Austin Dillon, Stenhouse, Menard, Blaney) and naturally since I singled Logano out, he is probably going to win the race. Logano has not finished better than 21st in the last four races at Charlotte and only has one top 15 finish this year at 1.5 mile tracks. He is starting 7th and has almost no chance to dominate.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coca-Cola 600 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!