Props to @joejets19 on another great NASCAR newsletter!

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the Gander RV 400 CheatSheet

NASCAR Gander RV 400 🏁

After a relatively underwhelming race at Talladega, NASCAR moves on to Dover International Speedway in Dover, DE for the Gander RV 400. Dover is a 1 mile concrete oval track known as the "Monster Mile." The 750 horsepower package will be run this weekend (no aeroducts) so recent results will be helpful. There may be some weather on Sunday but they should be able to squeeze in the full race.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Elliott, Lajoie, Gaughan, Preece, Newman, Logano 377.75 DK pts.

$100K Slingshot: Kyle Busch, Gaughan, Lajoie, Logano, Newman, Preece 359.50 DK pts.Min cash: 203.75 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Kyle Busch, Elliott, Gaughan, Lajoie, Logano, Preece 368.75 DK pts. Min cash: 199.00 DK pts.

$300K Big One: Elliott, Jones, Lajoie, Logano, Newman, Preece 352.50 DK pts.Min cash:210.00 DK pts.

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 365 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 182.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Dominators are a necessity at Dover. Four of the last six races at Dover have had two drivers lead more than 100 laps (with three of those races having one driver that lead 180+ laps) and each one of those drivers ended up in the perfect lineup for their respective races. The two races that didn't have two dominators had one driver that led more than 100 laps but there was no clear second dominator. Eight of the ten drivers that led more than 100 laps in the last six races have started in the top 5, so we are going to want to target at least two drivers starting in the top 5 and maybe a third driver starting in the top 15 in the hopes to capture all of the dominator potential.

Normally when we need to front load lineups we have to compensate by starting low priced drivers starting 30th or worse, but at Dover, it is not always the best strategy. Since it is only a 1 mile track, slow cars will get lapped fairly quickly and depend on attrition to pick up spot. Unfortunately, there were not any qualifying mishaps that could help us with place differential drivers, so we are going to want to focus on drivers starting in the top 30 that can pick up 7+ spots to balance out our lineups.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 120 laps, Stage 2: 120 laps, Stage 3: 160 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Talladega Review:

• Chris Buescher (16.00 DK pts): Got caught up in the late race mess and plummeted to 30th place, killing his nice race.

• Denny Hamlin (-3.50 DK pts): Hamlin was involved in the first incident of the day and crushed our dreams early.

Dover Picks:

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

Chase Elliott is starting on the pole on Sunday and that is a major advantage at Dover. I don't have any doubt that he can blow by Byron who starts second, but he will have his work cut out for him to hold Larson off. Elliott is in line to lead a good chunk of the early laps and he has shown he is up to the challenge because he won the most recent race at Dover and was able to lead 138 laps in October 2017.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,500 DK, $8,300 FD)

I try to avoid Stenhouse Jr. because he is very volatile and he has crushed my soul more than once over the years but I think he makes for a solid place differential play on Sunday. His recent history may not jump off the page but I am focussing on his nice run of top 20 finishes. He usually qualifies much better than he did for this race but I think he has the ability to sneak in to the top 10. He may turn out to be a decent pivot off of Newman who is slightly more expensive but starts one spot further back.

Tournament Targets

Talladega Review:

• Matt DiBenedetto (13.25 DK pts): Just like Buescher, he was having a nice race that ended poorly when he got caught up in a late mess.

• Kurt Busch (50.50 DK pts): Picked up 8 spots and finished 6th, didn't end up in any winning lineups but still turned in a solid performance.

• Joey Logano (55.25 DK pts): Logano led 37 laps and finished 4th on his way to the perfect lineup.

Dover Picks:

Kyle Larson ($8,000 DK , $10,600 FD)

Larson is having a forgettable season but, historically, Dover has been very kind to him. Larson is starting 3rd and will be able to challenge Elliott for the lead early and often. I do think eventually he will be able to get to the front and can stay up there for a while. At $8,000 he will be a source of a ton of value and anything more than 50 laps led and a top 5 finish should land him in the perfect lineup.

Daniel Suarez ($7,700 DK , $9,600 FD)

Daniel Suarez only has one finish worse than 10th in his career (Xfin and Cup) at Dover. In my estimation, this is by far his best track and he is on my radar for Sunday. Suarez is starting 14th so he does carry risk, but due to his low price, all he needs is a top 10 finish to be useful.

Kurt Busch ($8,900 DK , $11,800 FD)

Kurt Busch is my risky play for Sunday because his history is not as good as it seems. There is a narrative going around the industry that the new package is racing like the package previous to Gen 6, a time period when Busch was not great at Dover. While that may be true, Busch is having a career year and I can't fade him at this price when he is starting 19th.

Bargain Bin

Talladega Review

• David Ragan (16.50 DK pts): Lost 8 places and was never really a factor.

• Stanton Barrett (4.50 DK pts): Picked up 4 spots but wasn't able to finish the race.

Dover Pick

Michael McDowell ($5,300 DK, $4,500 FD)

McDowell is starting a little further forward than I would like, which slightly hurts his ceiling, but I think it may actually protect his floor. Starting 26th, he will most likely not pick up more than 5-6 spots but there will be extra cars between him and the leader, so hopefully he can avoid being lapped very early.

Matt Tifft ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

There is not much to like about the Bargain Basement this weekend. Tifft has a solid Xfin history with a top 9 finish in 4 of 5 races here. So we know he has the skill, it just depends on his equipment to be up to the challenge.

Other Drivers To Consider

Talladega Review

• Brad Keselowski (26.00 DK pts)

• Brendan Gaughan (61.75 DK)

• Jimmie Johnson (1.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

Ryan Preece ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD)

Clint Bowyer ($8,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Talladega Review

• Aric Almirola (35.75 DK pts): Almirola lost 7 spots but led 27 laps so it was just about a wash. Overall, he didn't kill any lineups.

Dover Pick

Kyle Busch ($12,400 DK, $15,000)

Kyle Busch is in an odd spot on Sunday because starting 22nd kills his dominator potential but if he wins the race, he will still put up a nice score. I have made a habit of fading Kyle in the Spring Dover race because he actually failed to finish 4 of the last 5 Spring races here. I don't know exactly where his ownership will end up because dominators are so important at Dover but I know I will be way under the field.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Gander RV 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter. Good Luck!