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NASCAR Geico 500 🏁

Welcome back! I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend and thank your for joining us again as NASCAR makes its first trip to Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, AL for the Geico 500. Talladega is a 2.66 mile tri-oval that was traditionally one of the two restrictor plate tracks in the NASCAR circuit. This season, NASCAR is scrapping the restrictor plate for a combination package of: tapered spacer, rear spoiler, raised rear end and a new wicker. I am sorry for sounding like a broken record but uncertainty doesn't even begin to describe the feelings around the industry about this race.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Newman, Johnson, Bowyer, Truex Jr., Hamlin, Suarez 402.50 DK pts.

$60K Slingshot: Newman, Johnson, Bowyer, Truex Jr., Hamlin, Suarez 402.50 DK pts.Min cash: 308.00 DK pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Newman, Johnson, Bowyer, Truex Jr., Hamlin, Suarez 402.50 DK pts. Min cash: 306.25 DK pts.

$250K First Gear: Newman, Johnson, Bowyer, Truex Jr., Hamlin, Suarez 402.50 DK pts.Min cash: 308.75 DK pts.

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run and 47 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 355 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 177.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

The conventional wisdom at restrictor plate tracks is to roster drivers starting 25th or worse but that may not be the case this Sunday. The first reason to reconsider that approach is this isn't going to be a traditional restrictor plate race. I mentioned above the package NASCAR is running at Talladega in lieu of a restrictor plates and we will really have no idea how the race will play out. We have been promised more drafting this season due to the new aerodynamic packages and in some races we have seen it and in some races not so much. Judging by practice speeds, these cars will be going faster than previous years but there hasn't been as much of a speed differential between the fastest and 20th fastest drivers. I think we will see some drafting on Sunday but I am not positive we will see the 20 car drafts that we are used to. The reason this is a big deal is because if one thing goes wrong when the cars are four wide, a chain reaction crash can occur (known as "The Big One") that can effectively wipe out half the field. If that is taken off the table, back loaded lineups will be much less effective. Some of the driver chatter suggests that with the cars going so fast, any mishap will turn into a Big-ger One, but they could also play it safe- hence the uncertainty.

Now that I said my piece about the new package, the second reason a backloaded approach may not be the optimal build is because it hasn't been as successful at Talladega as it has at Daytona. Five of the last six perfect lineups had at least one driver starting in the top 10 with three of those lineups having drivers starting in the top 5. We are not looking for dominators, however, because only two of those perfect lineups had a driver that led more than 50 laps (Kurt Busch led over 100 laps recently but didn't finish well enough to make the perfect lineup). The sweet spot for drivers at Talladega between 19-30, we will want to roster at least 3, sometimes 4 drivers starting in this range.

Overall, we are going to have to decide how much risk we can stomach this weekend. In cash, we can avoid the top 10, take one driver from 10-20, one four drivers from 20-30 and one driver from 30-40 and play it safe. Tournaments will be won by lineups that will not make us feel comfortable because they will most likely have at least one driver that starts up front and if you choose the wrong one, the entire lineup will be dead in the water. This is the perfect weekend to multi-enter because all you will need is one safe lineup to have a chance to take down a tournament.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 55 laps, Stage 2: 55 laps, Stage 3: 78 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Richmond Review:

• Ryan Newman (51.50 DK pts): Started 24th finished, finished 9th and added three fastest laps. Newman exceeded all expectations on his way to the perfect/winning lineup.

• Kyle Busch (84.75 DK pts): Busch led 101 laps and had 55 fastest laps to go along with an 8th place finish. He wasn't in the winning/perfect lineup but he provided a great anchor for a cash game team.

Talladega Picks:

Chris Buescher ($6,900 DK, $6,200 FD)

Buescher is mentioned often in this newsletter, usually because he provides solid salary relief, but this weekend he is a driver I will be building around. He starts 31st and only has one finish worse than 24th in seven races at Talladega. He is not known for qualifying well here so he will be used to working the draft and avoiding trouble to turn in a top 20 finish.

Denny Hamlin ($9,200 DK, $12,800 FD)

Hamlin is having an amazing 2019 so far with two wins (including the Daytona 500) 9 consecutive top 11s. He is starting 23rd this weekend and hasn't finished worse than 14th in his last five races at Talladega. We don't usually go looking for drivers to lead laps here but it is worth noting that he has led at least 1 lap in 9 of the last 10 races here.

Tournament Targets

Richmond Review:

• Aric Almirola (30.50 DK pts): I loved Almirola before he failed inspection and then he became a lock. He ran very well until a late pit road penalty derailed him.

• Denny Hamlin. (68.00 DK pts): Hamlin was another driver I wrote up before he had his qualifying times disallowed and then became a lock. He started 30th and raced his way to a 5th place finish, landing himself in the perfect/winning lineup.

• Ty Dillon (25.00 DK pts): Dillon was only able to pick up two spots. Performed decently for the price but didn't reach value.

Talladega Picks:

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,000 DK , $7,000 FD)

DiBenedetto is usually my darling pick at Daytona but I think he can go under owned and surprise people this weekend. His history at Talladega isn't spectacular but he actually runs pretty well in the Spring race with three top 20 finishes in four Spring races.

Kurt Busch ($9,000 DK , $11,200 FD)

Kurt is starting 14th, which is further forward than we should feel comfortable with, but his had proven to be fairly safe. He only has one finish worse than 14th in the last nine races here and has six top 10's during that time. Last race here, he led 108 laps but didn't end up in the perfect lineup because he finished 14th after starting first. Overall, I think he provides top 5 upside and could be a safe-ish option depending on which strategy you choose.

Joey Logano ($11,200 DK , $13,500 FD)

Nothing says risky like rostering a driver starting 8th at a track like Talladega. If we are aiming for 1st, we most likely will need at least one driver in the top 10 and this is the first place I am looking. Logano has the best driver rating at Talladega since 2017 and has three wins in the last 7 races here. He is a boom or bust play for the most part, however, because he seems to either finish top 5 or 30+.

Bargain Bin

Richmond Review

• Michael McDowell (-10.00 DK pts): Second lowest scoring driver of the slate.

• Landon Cassill (4.50 DK pts): Lost 10 spots and continues to disappoint.

Talladega Pick

David Ragan ($5,400 DK, $5,000 FD)

I like David Ragan so much I considered writing him up in the Tournament Target section but then I saw his price. Ragan has three top 10's in the last four races here and will most likely go overlooked because he is starting 15th. If he can stay safe and move into the top 10, that should be enough to get him into the perfect lineup.

Stanton Barrett ($4,500 DK, $2,500 FD)

Who? Barrett is making his first start of the season and will be starting second to last. His recommendation is coming purely due to the fact that he is min salary and has no name recognition. I don't think salary is going to be an issue at all this weekend but he actually has a better car than some of the lower tier drivers and he can't go negative so he is the perfect punt.

Other Drivers To Consider

Richmond Review

• Martin Truex Jr. (113.50 DK pts)

• Matt DiBenedetto (16.50 DK)

• William Byron (33.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski ($10,700 DK, $13,200 FD)

Brendan Gaughan ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Richmond Review

• Kevin Harvick (69.5 DK pts): Harvick didn't dominate by any means but also didn't blow up. He only led 30 laps and finished 4th but was bailed out by his 50 laps led.

Talladega Pick

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK, $12,500)

Almirola is on a hot streak at Talladega, making each of the last 5 perfect lineups here. Unfortunately, he starts 2nd on Sunday and has nowhere to go but down. If you are tracking my fades this year, this is pretty much an indication to lock in a top 3 bet for Almirola but I am going to trust my gut and fade the top 3.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Geico 500 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!