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NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 🏁

NASCAR will make its first trip to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA for the Toyota Owners 400. Richmond is a 0.75 mile D-shaped oval and will be the first night race of the season. NASCAR will be running their high horsepower package this weekend and this is also an impound race (there will be an inspection at 1:30 Saturday afternoon that can greatly impact starting positions).

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Logano, Blaney, Bowyer, Suarez, Menard, Ty DIllon 405.50 DK pts.

$125K Slingshot: Logano, Blaney, Bowyer, Suarez, Menard, Ty DIllon 405.50 DK pts.Min cash: 282.25 DK pts.

$30K Happy Hour: Logano, Blaney, Bowyer, Suarez, Menard, Ty DIllon 405.50 DK pts. Min cash: 278.50 DK pts.

$300K Piston: Logano, Blaney, Bowyer, Suarez, Menard, Ty DIllon 405.50 DK pts. Min cash: 286.0 DK pts.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 355 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 177.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

*******The starting lineup is not official until inspection is complete on Saturday afternoon. ANY DRIVER THAT FAILS INSPECTION WILL START IN THE REAR AND BE SCORED FROM THE REAR. I will try my best to update everyone via chat and also Twitter. Last year, these inspections were a mess and jumbled up the starting lineup, the first one this year was tame. We are using the unofficial starting lineup for the newsletter but recommendations are subject to change.****

Now that we got that out of the way, 400 laps will be run on Saturday night and we will want to target two, at most 3 dominators. In the last 5 races, two drivers lead at least 89 laps four times and one race had three drivers that lead more than 89 laps. The dominators generally start in the top 15 and the pole sitter has been known to have some success leading laps but they have not always finished well.

For our place differential drivers, we are going to want to focus on 2-3 drivers that will be able to pick up at least 10 positions or finish in the top 10. Each of the last 5 perfect lineups had four drivers that finished inside the top 10 and two drivers that finished outside. All of the drivers that finished outside the top 10 except for one either picked up more than 10 spots or lead more than 90 laps.

Finally, low priced drivers are going to be important this weekend. Each of the last 5 perfect lineups had at least 1 driver that cost $6200 or less, with one lineup having two such drivers. These drivers usually accounted for 1 of the two drivers that finished outside the top 10 but picked up at least 10 spots. We want to target one cheap driver that may not necessarily finish too far forward but will be able to make a significant move from their starting position.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 200 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bristol Review:

• Kurt Busch (74.50 DK pts): Another chalky week, another nice score. Finished second with 15 fastest laps. Not in the perfect lineup but a nice piece to build around in cash games.

• Kyle Larson (28.50 DK pts): Had a ton of problems late, not his best showing.

Richmond Picks: 

Ryan Newman ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

Ryan Newman is not a sexy pick my any means but he has an absurdly good record at Richmond. In his last 21 races here, he has 19 (thats right, I said 19) top 20 finishes. He starts 31st Saturday night and has a decent car overall, so he shouldn't have to worry about being lapped quickly. At this price and starting position, he only needs a top 20 to hit value. But as we discussed earlier, we are aiming for drivers that can finish in the top 10. He will be a cash game lock because of his floor but I love his ceiling.

Kyle Busch ($13,000 DK, $15,300 FD)

It kills me to recommend Kyle Busch this week because of the price but until he shows that he is human, we are going to have to play him. He was not in the perfect lineup either of the last two weeks but starting 5th, he has a reasonable chance to dominate. Even if he doesn't get up front in the beginning of the race, I think his pit crew will get him out front at the first caution/pitstop and it's up to him to stay up there. Until further notice, I am going to treat Busch like I treated Harvick in 2017 and should have treated Joey Logano during the playoffs, play him until he burns you.

Tournament Targets

Bristol Review:

• Ryan Blaney (96.00 DK pts): Dominated early, led 158 laps and added 35 fastest laps. Blaney finished second and was in the perfect/winning lineups.

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-0.5 DK pts): Had a wreck early and went down a good chunk of laps.

• Christ Buescher (26.50 DK pts): Heartbreaking, Buescher was in the top 10 all race but had a mishap with 40 laps to go. Finished 22nd but all I could think about on Monday was what could have been.

Richmond Picks:

Aric Almirola ($7,700 DK , $10,200 FD)

Almirola is a price enforcement play. He is easily a $9,000+ driver that we are getting at a steep discount on a weekend that we need the help. He is starting 15th and doesn't really offer too much dominator potential but has had positive place differential in each of his last 9 races here. Due to his price, he only needs a top 10 to reach value, anything more than that will help him reach the perfect lineup.

Denny Hamlin ($8,900 DK , $12,500 FD)

Hamlin is in an interesting spot this weekend because he is starting 18th, which kills his chance for leading 100+ laps, but he is also a great value. I wouldn't call him a potential dominator. I see him as more of a top 10 lock, which will serve useful if the race plays out in two different ways: 1) there is only one major dominator and the rest of the laps led are spread out or 2) there are no major dominators. He is a great piece to fit into lineups and I think a perfect race for him would be a top 5 with 25-40 laps led.

Ty Dillon ($6,100 DK , $6,000 FD)

We are in need of some low priced drivers this week and Ty Dillon is the first place I am looking. His best finish here is only 20th, which is slightly concerning (landing him in the risky pick of the week slot) especially considering his potential ownership since he is starting 30th. He has a decent floor and showed both single lap and 10 lap practice speed on Friday.

Bargain Bin

Texas Review

• David Ragan (24.00 DK pts): Picked up one spot, kind of disappointing but not a terrible score considering the price.

• Corey Lajoie (8.00 DK pts): Running very well until about mid-way through the race when he crushed our dreams.

Bristol Pick

Michael McDowell ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Budget drivers will serve a purpose this weekend and if you have the stomach for it, McDowell has tournament winning upside. He is a boom or bust driver at best, with a 16th and a 12th place finish to go along with 31, 31 and 42nd place finished in the last 7.

Landon Cassill ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD)

I have decided that we are going to have to ride Cassill until he pays off (the opposite of Kyle Busch). His practice times were actually better that Clint Bowyer and right behind Jimmie Johnson. With a little luck (and attrition) he may be able to pull off a top 25.

Other Drivers To Consider

Bristol Review

• Daniel Suarez (51.00 DK pts)

• Jimmie Johnson (35.00 DK)

• Joey Logano (117.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 DK, $12,700 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

William Byron ($6,700 DK, $7,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bristol Review

• Ryan Newman (38.5 DK pts): Another tough week for the fade. When it was all said and done, Newman was able to pick up two spots and finish 9th. He crushed value but wasn't in the perfect lineup.

Richmond Pick

Kevin Harvick ($12,300 DK, $14,000)

My safe fades have been off this season, so we are going with a polarizing one this weekend. Harvick is starting on the pole and loves his car, which traditionally is a great combination. But last Fall, he was in the same position and was in much better form but was only able to lead 40 laps. I am not predicting a Harvick blow up and will even own a share or two as a hedge, but overall, I don't see him as a major dominator or in any perfect/winning lineups.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Toyota Owners 400 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!