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NASCAR Food City 500 🏁

NASCAR will make its first trip to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN for the Food City 500. Bristol is a 0.533 mile concrete oval known for its steep banking and two pitroads. NASCAR will be running their high horsepower package this week (showcased by Ryan Blaney setting the track record on Friday).

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Johnson, Hamlin, Suarez, Byron, Bowyer, Jones. 368.00 DK pts.

$125K Slingshot: Almirola, Bowyer, Byron, Hamlin, Johnson, Suarez 364.75 DK pts.  Min cash: 279.75 DK pts.

$30K Happy Hour: Almirola, Bowyer, Byron, Hamlin, Johnson, Suarez 364.75 DK pts.  Min cash: 276.25 DK pts.

$300K Piston: Almirola, Bowyer, Byron, Hamlin, Johnson, Suarez 364.75 DK pts Min cash: 283.5 DK pts.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 420 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 210 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Dominators are essential at Bristol. Each of the last 6 races had at least two drivers lead more than 100 laps and the last two races had 3 drivers that led at least 100 laps. Drivers starting in the front row have led at least 100 laps in five of the last 6 races but the other major lap leaders have come from as far back as 24th in recent races. We will want to target at least 2 dominators but that will not be easy this week, because DraftKings' prices are outrageous.

We will want to focus on place differential drivers we think can finish in the top 10. Each of the last 6 perfect lineups had five drivers that finished in the top 10 and most of those non-dominator drivers picked up at least 10 place differential points.

The lineups were rounded out with one driver that cost less than $6000 that did not move too far forward but were able to pick up spots. There are a lot of incidents at Bristol. So by just surviving, some of the lesser drivers should be able to be useful.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 125 laps, Stage 2: 125 laps, Stage 3: 250 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Texas Review:

• Kurt Busch (70.00 DK pts): Very chalky, started 30th, finished 9th and added 28 fastest laps. Not in the perfect lineup but you didn't go wrong if you rostered him.

• Clint Bowyer (77.25 DK pts): Started 25th, finished 2nd and picked up 23 fastest laps in the process. Bowyer was much lowered owned than I expected and outperformed even his best projections.

Bristol Picks:

Kurt Busch ($10,700 DK, $11,500 FD)

Busch did not make it into any winning lineup last week but that will not scare me off of him on Sunday. Kurt is having a rough time qualifying this year but that opens up a ton of DFS opportunity for us to capitalize on. He does not have a perfect Bristol record, but starting 27th, all he needs is a top 10 to put up a nice score. And with few lucky breaks, he may be able to pick up a few laps led.

Kyle Larson ($9,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

Larson is criminally underpriced considering he has the best driver rating and second best average finishing position in the last 4 races at Bristol Motor Speedway. He completely dominated the last two Spring races, leading 200 and 202 laps respectively, even though he did not win either race. On Sunday Larson starts 16th, which may limit his chances of leading any laps in the first stage but the rest of the race is there for the taking.

Tournament Targets

Texas Review:

• Jimmie Johnson (57.00 DK pts): Led 60 laps and finished 5th. He didn't score as well as the place differential drivers but was able to fit into the perfect/winning lineups.

• Kevin Harvick (57.00 DK pts): Harvick did what we wanted him to do and the race worked out in his favor with no true dominator. Kyle Busch was able to lead enough laps, however, to blow his score out of the water.

• Ryan Preece (27.50 DK pts): Preese was able to pick up 5 spots but wasn't able to make enough noise to put up a major score.

Bristol Picks:

Ryan Blaney ($10,300 DK , $11,400 FD)

We want to target the front row for early dominators at Bristol and Chase Elliott has proven he knows how to lead laps here, but I give the edge to the driver starting 3rd, Ryan Blaney. In the last two races Blaney led 121 and 100 laps after starting 10th and 5th. His history before last year was not the best but has improved dramatically since joining team Penske.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,600 DK , $9,000 FD)

The $7,000 range is where a lot of important decisions are going to be made this weekend and I could make a case for Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez or Alex Bowman, but I think Stenhouse Jr. will be able to outscore them all. I never feel great rostering Stenhouse Jr. because of his propensity to blow up at any moment but somehow he seems to keep it together at Bristol. Stenhouse Jr. is starting 19th and has three top 9 finishes in his last 5 races here and six top 9 finishes in 12 career races here.

Chris Buescher ($6,400 DK , $6,200 FD)

I am back to picking risky drivers in this slot and it won't get any more boom or bust than Chris Buescher. To avoid rostering two bargain bin drivers this week, we will have to salvage a driver in the mid $6000 range and Buescher has shown he has a high ceiling and a poor floor. In his 7 races here, Buescher has a 5th place and 19th place finish to go along with two accidents which landed him 36th and 39th. I would be happy with any top 20 but he has top 15 upside.

Bargain Bin

Texas Review

• Parker Kligerman (23.00 DK pts): Very popular on the weekend and put up a respectable score, just not enough to make it in the perfect/winning lineups.

Bristol Pick

David Ragan ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

If you have the stomach for it, Ragan has the best upside of any driver under $6000. He has disappointed me several times this season but Bristol is actually one of his best tracks. Ragan has not finished worse than 17th in his last three races here and has picked up spots in four of his last 5 here.

Corey Lajoie ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD)

Lajoie is my pure punt of the week. He is not starting dead last but he has a faster car than anyone starting behind him, which is very important. He has shown that he runs well here, with a best career finish of 24th. If he can pick up a few spots before he is lapped and then avoid any incidents, he may be able to pick up a top 25 this weekend.

Other Drivers To Consider

Texas Review

• Kyle Larson (-11.50 DK pts) (going to haunt me for weeks)

• David Ragan (22.00 DK)

• Erik Jones (58.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Daniel Suarez ($7,300 DK, $8,100 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000 DK, $9,700 FD)

Joey Logano ($11,100 DK, $14,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Texas Review

• Austin Dillon (26.25 DK pts): Started 5th, finished 14th and led 5 laps. I was kind of upset that my fades haven't blown up but then I realized you could roster Parker Kligerman for $2,700 less and only score 3.25 fewer points.

Bristol Pick

Ryan Newman ($7,000 DK, $7,500)

This season my fade pick has revolved around drivers that qualified in the top 5 that I didn't think would lead laps. I felt bad recommending William Byron again (but please don't play him) and I am going to move a little further down the field to Ryan Newman. If Newman started 20th, I would love him as a play because I think he has a top 15 car but he is struggling this season and think the only place he can go is down.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Food City 500 CheatSheet and find me in the chat or twitter.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!