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NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 🏁

NASCAR will make its first trip to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. Texas is a 1.5 mile quad oval type track that is similar to Atlanta and Charlotte Motor Speedways and will feature the "full package" (low horsepower, aeroducts). Overnight rain washed the first Saturday practice out but weather should not be a problem on Sunday.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Elliott, Keselowski, Austin Dillon, Blaney, Ty Dillon, Hemric 512.25 DK pts.

$125K Slingshot: Blaney, Austin Dillon, Ty Dillon, Elliott, Keselowski, Menard 504.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 277.50 DK pts.

$30K Happy Hour: Blaney, Austin Dillon, Elliott, Hemric, Keselowski, Preece 494.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 273.25 DK pts.

$300K Piston: Bowyer, Austin Dillon, Ty DIllon, Elliott, Keselowski, Suarez 497.25 DK pts. Min cash: 286.75 DK pts.

On to Texas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 334 laps will be run and 83.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 297 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 148.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

We are back to a normal schedule this week at Texas but we also get the aeroducts. Traditionally, we see one driver lead 120-170 laps, one driver lead 60-80 laps and then the rest of the laps led are spread out. So far this year we have had two races at 1.5 mile tracks with the aeroducts (Atlanta and Las Vegas) and we had a one dominator and no dominator race. Overall, I think there will be at least two drivers that lead more than 80 laps, but I am not sure if there will be a true dominator on Sunday. We have seen so far this year that the low downforce cars have made it more difficult to pass and there have been times that drivers have run away from the field (not with a 10 second lead likes years past but more of a 3 second lead that cannot be overcome).

This is another week where qualifying was wonky and we have a lot of lower priced and lower tier drivers in the top 10 and a lot of high priced drivers starting 15-30. Previous perfect lineups have incorporated quality drivers that qualified poorly then raced themselves into a good finish, but they also sprinkled in some low priced drivers that qualified much better than they are used to and held on for the entire race by neither picking up any spots, nor losing them. Drivers starting in the front row haven't racked up too many wins in recent history at Texas, but one of the two usually leads a good chunk of laps. The major dominator usually starts in the top 10, but the race winner can start as far back as the mid-20s and may even lead some laps. Most of the field is in play this week, so we should see some unique lineups. Each of the last 6 perfect lineups have had one driver that cost $6000 or less. They do not usually have to race up the leaderboard but usually have to find a way to score around 30 points.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 85 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 164 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martinsville Review:

• Joey Logano (9.25 DK pts): Started on the pole but was only able to lead 5 laps. Was hovering in the top 10 until late and fell all the way to 19th, capping off a tough race.

• Austin Dillon (62.50 DK pts): Started 29th, finished 11th and picked up 23 fastest laps in the process. Dillon ended up in the perfect lineup and every winning lineup.

Texas Picks: 

Kurt Busch ($9,500 DK, $11,000 FD)

Kurt Busch is having a great year so far, including two top 5 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks. He starts 30th which makes him a cash game lock and had a phenomenal Saturday practice which makes me feel great about his car. He has a top 10 finish in six of his last seven races at Texas Motor Speedway with 40 laps led last April.

Clint Bowyer ($8,900 DK, $10,800 FD)

The second foundational target is a tough one for me this week, but I am going with Clint Bowyer. His history here is not the best but he is having a nice year at 1.5 mile tracks and he is cheap enough to pay off his salary by place differential alone. He starts 25th and has all race to make his way into the top 10, anything more than that will be gravy.

Tournament Targets

Martinsville Review:

• Kyle Busch (63.00 DK pts): Busch was never able to make it to the front, settling for a 3rd place finish and 24 fastest laps.

• David Ragan (17.00 DK pts): Thought he could pick up a few spots but went a lap down early and was lucky to only lose 1 spot in the race.

• Clint Bowyer (54.00 DK pts): Only picked up 3 places but had 28 fastest laps which was good enough to get him into one winning lineup

Texas Picks:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000 DK , $9,300 FD)

Johnson is having a tough year and that is the only thing that kept him out of the section above. His car is an absolute monster this weekend with the best practice and qualifying times on Friday, then the best 10, 15 and 20 lap averages on Saturday. After getting lapped twice last week at one of his best tracks, Johnson and his team are looking to bounce back and this may be a buy low situation. Drivers starting in the front row have been able to lead a good chunk of laps here in the past and Johnson definitely has the best car in the top 5.

Kevin Harvick ($10,700 DK , $14,000 FD)

Harvick is at risk of being in no-mans land starting 23rd, a little to far back to be a major dominator but not far enough back to reach value on place differential alone. This is, however, one track that has a history of drivers starting worse than 20th winning and leading laps. Johnson won here in Spring 2017 while starting 24th and several drivers in the last 6 races have led more than 40 laps while starting worse than 20th. A popular stat during the week is that Harvick has the fastest average running speed at 1.5 mile tracks this season, so I would not be terribly worried about his practice times.

Ryan Preece ($6,100 DK , $5,500 FD)

Preece is not as risky of a pick as I try to make in this section but this entire newsletter is a bit risky, so it counts. Preece is starting 27th and does not have a great Xfin history but I believe he has a good car this weekend and prefer to bet on talent. With the exception of Kurt Busch, no driver starting behind him has a better car and I think he has a top 20 car overall. If he avoids trouble he should be able to pay off.

Bargain Bin

Martinsville Review

• Cody Ware (5.00 DK pts): Lost 3 spots due to the cars moving to the back.

• Matt Tifft (17.00 DK pts): Made it as high as 26th but finished 29th, picking up two spots.

Texas Pick

Parker Kligerman ($5,100 DK, $3,500 FD)

Kligerman has one of the best cars of those starting 30+ and is one of the few cheap cars with a reasonable chance to reach 30 points. His 23rd best single lap time and 29th best 10 lap averages are better than everyone around.

Other Drivers To Consider

Martinsville Review

• Brad Keselowski (199.00 DK pts)

• Ty Dillon (45.50 DK)

• Daniel Hemric (36.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Texas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

David Ragan ($6,000 DK, $4,500 FD)

Erik Jones ($8,200 DK, $10,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martinsville Review

• William Byron (34.00 DK pts): After having his qualifying time disallowed, Byron became a cash game lock but a tournament fade was still on the table. In the chat we discussed the possibility that he gets trapped a lap down, hurting his ceiling. Byron did finish a lap down and only picked up 12 spots, not even reaching 5x.

Texas Pick

Austin Dillon ($7,800 DK, $9,000)

Dillon has never finished better than 10th at Texas and seems to have something off with his car this weekend. He qualified 5th but had single lap times of 12th and 28th with the 19th best 10 lap average. He qualified well at the other 1.5 mile tracks this year and turned that into a 20th and a 21st place finish.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 CheatSheet  and find me in the chat or twitter, I will be around all day.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!