Props to @joejets19 on another great NASCAR newsletter!

Get down on the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the STP 500 CheatSheet

NASCAR STP 500 🏁

NASCAR will make its first trip to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA for the Auto Club 400. Known as "The Paperclip", Martinsville is a 0.526 mile oval racetrack with very limited banking in the corners. NASCAR is running their standard package this week (750 hp and no aeroducts) and this will be the first impound race of the season. As a refresher, an impound race is one where the cars are locked away from the teams after qualifying so they can not be worked on between qualifying and the race. There will also be an inspection Sunday before the race, if any cars fail, their qualifying scores will be disallowed and the car will be moved to the rear of the field for NASCAR and DFS purposes.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Kyle Busch, Keselowski, Ware, Blaney, Byron, McDowell 321.75 DK pts.

$140K Slingshot: Blaney, Kyle Busch, Byron, DiBenedetto, Tifft, Truex Jr. 319.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 250 DK pts.

$35K Happy Hour: Blaney, Kyle Busch, Byron, DiBenedetto, Tifft, Truex Jr. 319.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 250.75 DK pts.

$400K Piston: Blaney, Kyle Busch, Byron, DiBenedetto, Tifft, Truex Jr. 319.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 256.25 DK pts.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 435 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 217.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

***As of the writing of this article, the starting lineup has not been made official. There will be an inspection at 8 am Sunday morning. If any car fails, their qualifying time will be disallowed and they will be moved to the back of the field. Once inspections are complete Sunday morning, the field will be finalized and that is where the drivers will be scored from. Make sure to follow me on Twitter as well as follow along in the chat for any breaking news.****

Now that we got that disclaimer out of the way, we can break down how we want to build lineups this weekend. In the last 6 races at Martinsville, we had one driver leading 100+ once, two drivers leading 100+ laps three times and three drivers leading 100+ laps twice. Only one of those drivers has started outside the top 11 and three of those drivers led 274+ laps. With the exception of one driver, every driver that has led more than 100 laps has been in each of the last 6 perfect lineups. We are going to want to focus on 3 dominator lineups composed of drivers starting in the top 10 and then we will want to fill out the lineup with any drivers that fail inspection and have a chance to move forward or drivers who we think can pick up about 10 spots. This is going to be a high risk high reward weekend because if we pick the right dominators, we will soar up the scoreboard. But if we pick wrong, we are toast.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Auto Club Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (57.0 DK pts): Started 27th and finished 8th, didn't lead any laps but did enough to be in the winning lineups but not the perfect lineup.

• Alex Bowman (25.00 DK pts): Picked up 2 spots but that wasn't enough to pay off his salary.

Martinsville Picks:

Joey Logano ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

High end drivers are very expensive this weekend, so we are going to have to be creative, but Logano is starting on the pole and worth the salary. He led 309 laps here in October and has led more than 100 laps in 2 of the four races he started on the pole (leading 21 and 59 laps in the other two). Logano has finished top 9 in eight of the last ten races at Martinsville and ten of the last thirteen short track races.

Austin Dillon ($7,300 DK, $7,700 FD)

Dillon had a 2018 to forget at Martinsville with two 30th place finishes but before then he had four consecutive top 17 finishes including a 4th and 5th in the Spring races of '17 and '18. During practice Dillon posted the 16th and 4th fastest single lap times as well as the 17th and 13th best 10 lap averages. He will not be a dominator but is a great option as a place differential driver.

Tournament Targets

Auto Club Review:

• Kevin Harvick (39.5 DK pts): Harvick started on the front row but set up his car too loose and fell through the field within the first lap. He was able to fight back to third but without leading any laps he completely busted.

• Daniel Hemric (-4.5 DK pts): Hemric ran as high as 7th until a tire went down on him and then his problems just compounded. He finished 8 laps down and was a lead sinker to any good lineup.

• Brad Keselowski (75.5 DK pts): Kes's starting position worried me but he was able to get to the front and lead 42 laps while finishing third. He was not in any winning lineup but was in the perfect lineup.

Martinsville Picks:

Kyle Busch ($13,000 DK , $14,900 FD)

Kyle Busch is obnoxiously expensive but is on fire to start the season. He has led more than 100 laps in 3 of the last 4 races here, including the October 2017 race where he started 14th (where he starts Sunday), led 184 laps and won. Busch carries some significant risk due to his price alone and will only allow us to build two dominator lineups but he has the potential to break the slate on any given weekend. His single laps times were not great but he had top 3 10-lap averages in both practices.

David Ragan ($5,600 DK , $5,000 FD)

We are dying for salary relief this weekend and you could do worse than David Ragan (a ringing endorsement, I know). Ragan starts 26th and only has two finishes worse than 26th his last seven races here. His single lap practice times were not great but he had top 15 10-lap averages in both practices and if he can avoid being lapped early, he should be able to pick up some spots.

Clint Bowyer ($8,400 DK , $11,700 FD)

Bowyer is the cheapest driver who I think has a chance to dominate. He led 215 laps last year while starting 9th and will look to replicate that on Sunday. He is starting a little further back than I would like (11th) but is driving a great car. His teammates Almirola and Harvick are starting 2nd and 4th and I am expecting him to have equipment just as good as them but I think he actually has a better history. Bowyer had the fastest single lap time in the first practice and the second fastest 10 lap average in second practice. He will need a top 5 finish to score 45 points, but in reality, will need to lead some laps to make it into the perfect lineup.

Bargain Bin

Phoenix Review:

• Corey Lajoie (12.00 DK pts): Wasn't able to do much, lost 1 spot.

• Bubba Wallace (12.00 DK pts): Dropped 2 spots.

Auto Club Picks

Cody Ware ($5,100 DK, $2,500 FD)

Ware is the type of low ceiling crutch I have been trying to avoid, but starting dead last and only $200 more than min salary....he can't lose us any points. As drivers fail inspection on Sunday, he will become much less appealing because the only way he will pick up spots is attrition rather than being able to pass people. But for the price, he will provide a small floor.

Matt Tifft ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)

For $200 more, Tifft provides a higher ceiling but also a lower floor than Ware. Starting 32nd, Tifft is locked in to at least 4 points if he finishes dead last, but his 10 lap average time suggests he can be at least competitive. He should be able to pull off a top 30 finish with a ceiling of 20-25.

Other Drivers To Consider

Auto Club Review

• William Byron (39.25 DK pts)

• Kurt Busch (54.00 DK)

• Chris Buescher (26.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski ($12,400 DK, $13,700 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD)

Daniel Hemric ($6,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Auto Club Review

• Austin Dillon (26.00 DK pts): It looked like Dillon blew his engine during the race and was about to put up a huge negative number but it was only a downed tire. He held on to a top 10 but that wasn't even close to enough to get him to value.

Martinsville Pick

William Byron ($6,900 DK, $7,000)

I feel like this is almost a cop-out pick but I think Byron has the potential to put up a huge negative number this weekend. I am not too sure how highly owned he will be, but starting 6th he has almost no chance of moving forward. His single lap speeds were 23rd and 36th fastest and his 10 lap average in the second practice was not much better. Byron needs to hold on to a top 8 to score 5x and I think he would be lucky to finish in the top 15.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the STP 500 CheatSheet , there are no individual driver notes this week feel free to find me in the chat or twitter, I will be around all day.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!