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Hope everyone enjoyed their Father's Day weekend and thanks for joining us for another edition of the Pitstop. This week, the NASCAR Cup series goes out to Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, CA for the Toyota/ Save Mart 350. Sonoma Raceway is a 2.52 mile road course and will be the first time this year the drivers will have to make a right turn.  History at Sonoma, specifically, will be very important this week because, while there are some drivers that specialize in all road courses, there is not very much correlation between Sonoma and Watkins Glenn.

Last week’s winning lineups:

$275K Piston: Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Harvick, McMurray, Menard, Wallace. 322 pts. Min cash: 211.75 pts.

$75K Slingshot: Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Harvick, McMurray, Menard, Wallace. 322 pts. Min cash: 210.25 pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Bowyer. Kurt Busch, Dillon, Harvick, McMurray, Menard. 321 pts. Min cash: 211.25 pts.

On to Sonoma!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point we know how the DK scoring system works, so lets see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week 110 laps will be run and 27.5 points will be awarded (unless overtime).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (about 100 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 50 possible points). 

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points and for each position gained another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

In the last four races at Sonoma, no driver has led more than 45 laps in a single race.  I know I am starting to sound like a broken record, but this is another week where place differential points are much more important than domination points.  Most races have two, maybe three drivers that lead more than 20 laps and they tend to start in the top 15.  In the past 2 perfect lineups at Sonoma (12 drivers total): 4 drivers started 10th or better, 5 drivers started between 12-19 and then 3 drivers started between  23rd-32nd.  We want to build our lineups around drivers starting outside the top 10 that can finish in the top 5, and fill in our remaining slots with drivers who might not make it to the front of the pack but can pick up about 10 places.

Sonoma has seen about 5 cars per race finish more than 5 laps down usually due to some type of car issue.  The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 25 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Michigan Review:

• Kyle Larson (15.25 DK pts): Larson made his way up up front pretty quickly but then spun out while running 8th on the 35th lap.  He fought his way back to the led lap but then the race was called due to rain.  

• Kevin Harvick (68.75 DK pts): Highest scoring driver again this week, was in every winning lineup and had a good chance to win at the end.

Clint Bowyer ($9,300 DK, $11,7000 FD)

Bowyer is having himself a hell of a season and hopes to continue the good times at a track that has been generous to him in the past.  Bowyer has placed in the top 10 in 6 of his last 7 races here, was the fastest car in the first practice and was in the perfect lineup in the last race here.  You can't beat his price, offering a $2400 discount to Harvick while providing a similar ceiling.

Ryan Newman ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

A driver who I have not seen mentioned too often this week is Ryan Newman.  He is not known as a road course specialist but in his last 5 races here, he has 5 top 15's and a high of 8th and finished with positive place differential in 4/5.  He may not have hit it out of the park in practice but hopefully that will depress his ownership.

Top Tournament Targets

Michigan Review:

• Alex Bowman (33 DK pts): Didn't quite reach the value I had hoped but ran well and finished 16th.

• Kasey Kahne (29.75 DK pts): Tried to play the pit strategy game and picked up 11 laps led and 6 place differential.  Overal solid day and got the best he could out of his car.

• Paul Menard (50.25 DK pts): Bowyer won the race due to pit strategy but that shouldn't overshadow Menard too much because he was able to pull off a top 5 and found himself in the winning lineups this week.

Denny Hamlin  ($9,100 DK , $11,000 FD)

If you guys have been following my cheatsheets throughout the year, you will know this recommendation hurts a little.  I make it a habit to fade Hamlin any week I can, but I think he may be worth a tournament flyer.  He has had negative place differential in 3 of the last 5 races here but was in the perfect lineup for the last 2.  He is the definition of a boom or bust play for tournaments. 

Kurt Busch ($8,600 DK , $10,600 FD)

I wanted very badly to write up Jimmie Johnson this week but he qualified too well, so he put right back onto the chalky Kurt Busch.  I was not as high on him going into qualifying as most people were, but you can't argue with a top 12 in each of his last 7 races at Sonoma.

Kasey Kahne ($6,600 DK , $7,700 FD)

Kasey Kahne keeps finding himself in this article but we are at the part of the schedule where he is best.  Kahne has 4 top 9's in his last 5 races here and even though he may be chalky, he provides a nice amount of safety with a high ceiling.

Bargain Bin

Michigan review:

• Landon Cassill  (16 DK points): Not the highest scoring driver in this range but no driver under $6100 found their way into the winning lineup

• No driver under $5000 scored higher than 16 points (Gray Gaulding), no one in this range would have killed a lineup but they also severely lowered its ceiling.

Cole Whitt ($5,300 DK, $5,000 FD)

We have not seen a ton of Whitt this year but he has a respectable history at this track.  He was in the perfect lineup last year when he finished a career best 21st and has finished with positive place differential in every race he has run here.

Parker Kligerman ($4,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

This is another week I will be avoiding this range, especially since I am not thrilled with any of the high priced drivers. If you find yourself in a salary crunch, you could do much worse than Kligerman.  He starts far enough back to provide a safe floor, but has enough speed in his car to gain some places.

Other Drivers To Consider

Michigan Recap

• Chase Elliot (40 DK pts): Top 10 finish, tied for 3rd highest scoring driver $9000+

• AJ Allmendinger (35 DK pts)

• Martin Truex Jr (26 DK pts): In the chat, we discussed a qualifier lineup with Truex/Kes lineup as high risk high reward.  I gave it about a 10% chance at success and he kind of landed in no man's land, he scored better than Larson but not by enough to be proud of.

Here are 3 more drivers I like this week that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick  ($11,700 DK, $12,600FD)

Kyle Busch  ($11,200 DK, $12,200 FD)

Ty Dillon  ($5,700 DK, $6,900 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michigan Recap:

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-7 DK points): Only 3 drivers scored negative points last week and Stenhouse went the lowest.

Jaime McMurray ($7,600 DK, $9,600 FD)

In 8 of McMurray's 10 previous races at Sonoma, he has finished between 10-19 with the two outliers being a 4 and 25.  Since he is starting 4th on Sunday, he has to hold on to a top 10 just to score 28 points, that won't cut it this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!  Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

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