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NASCAR Auto Club 400 🏁

NASCAR will make its yearly trip to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA for the Auto Club 400. The track is a 2 mile, low banked D-shaped oval and will be the second track that will feature the new aero ducts and lower horsepower (Las Vegas was the first).

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Tifft, Larson, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Bowyer, Blaney 407.75 DK pts.

$150K Slingshot: Tifft, Larson, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Bowyer, Blaney 407.75 DK pts.  Min cash: 281.75 DK pts.

$40K Happy Hour: Tifft, Larson, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Bowyer, Blaney 407.75 DK pts.  Min cash: 279.00 DK pts.

$400K Piston: Tifft, Larson, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Bowyer, Blaney 407.75 DK pts.  Min cash: 299.75 DK pts.

On to Auto Club!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 173 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 86.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Qualifying was a mess this weekend, proving to NASCAR that there are still some things that need to be worked out with these new packages. It has, however, provided us an opportunity for some interesting lineup constructions. As highlighted above, only 200 laps will be run this weekend, providing 50 laps led points and I anticipate about 86.5 fastest laps points. This means that dominator points for this race are limited to begin with and are most likely going to be spread out even more than previous years because the cars that will get fastest lap points will most likely be running in a draft and not the leader. The last three races here have seen one driver lead at least 110 laps with a second driver leading 62, 73, 25 laps and while I wouldn't necessarily call this a two dominator track, both of those drivers have been in the perfect lineup for each race. This year I expect there to be one driver that leads around 60-75 laps and then several that lead 20-45 laps, which will put a premium on finishing position points. For example: a driver that starts 5th, leads 40 laps but only finishes 10th will score 39 points but a driver that starts 21st and finishes 12th will score 41 points.

The perfect lineups for the last 3 races consisted of at least 1 driver starting on the front row that dominated, a second driver in that started in the top 5 that filled the second dominator roll and then the rest of the lineup was filled out with place differential/finishing position drivers. There was no specific trend in for the place differential drivers, it was usually slate specific due to high priced drivers that qualified poorly but were able to move forward or one race that had no obvious plays so lower priced drivers that were able to pick up a hand full of spots and finish well ended up in the perfect lineup. This year, for tournaments, we may want to take a crack at one dominator and then balance our lineups out with drivers we think can finish in the top 15. In cash games we may want to avoid a dominator all together and just focus on drivers that we think can move forward and finish in the top 12.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Phoenix Review:

• Kyle Larson (63.0 DK pts): Larson was a cash game lock and was very highly owned in tournaments. He ran as high as 4th but finished 6th on his way to the perfect lineup.

• Daniel Suarez (29.50 DK pts): Suarez was also very highly owned and didn't kill your lineups compared to DiBenedetto/McDowell who started near him. I like him for his safety but wish he knew how to flip the right switches. Overall, serviceable but not his best race.

Auto Club Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000 DK, $13,700 FD)

Truex Jr. completely dominated at Auto club last year starting on the pole, leading 125 laps and picking up the win. He was able to lead 73 laps the year before, starting in the fourth position. This year, I do not expect that kind of performance out of Truex Jr., but starting 27th, he doesn't need it. He is the 6th most expensive driver and arguably has one of the highest ceilings, especially if no true dominator emerges. He is a cash game lock and a top 10 will just about guarantee his place in the perfect lineup.

Alex Bowman ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Bowman is not a driver I write up often because he normally qualifies much better than I think he will run (and maybe a little personal bias) but this week I love him. He is starting 23rd and is more expensive than the one driver starting in front of him and every driver starting behind him except Truex Jr. but I expect him to go under owned. He has practiced incredibly well, especially on Saturday when he ran the 8th fastest single lap speeds in both practices and the 3rd and 4th best 10 lap averages. He picked up 15 spots last year, starting 28th and finishing 13th. I would be happy with anything in the top 15.

Tournament Targets

Phoenix Review:

• Kyle Busch (144.75 DK pts): The big debate going into this race was who would dominate, Harvick or Busch. Kyle Busch ran away with this race, leading 177 laps and adding 103 fastest laps. Harvick was the higher owned driver but didn't stand a chance last Sunday. Busch was a smash play and the race was pretty boring if you didn't roster him.

• Ryan Newman (39 DK pts): Newman wasn't starting as far back as some better drivers, making him a tournament play. He ran as high as 3rd before a "safety violation" forced him to the back of the field. He finished in the top 12 and paid off his salary but it was a race of what could have been.

• Daniel Hemric (20.5 DK pts): Hemric's practice times were scary but I was hoping that his track history and the fact that it would be hard to pass would prop up his floor. Unfortunately, he ended up losing 7 laps and not providing too much help for our lineups.

Auto Club Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($12,100 DK , $14,500 FD)

The perpetual Harvick/Kyle Busch debate continues. It is all but guaranteed that one of the drivers starting on the front row will lead some laps at Auto Club and I will take Harvick over Austin Dillon any day. Harvick has mostly disappointed this year but if he can lead the majority of the first stage and finish in the top 5, he will be able to put up a nice score.

Daniel Hemric ($6,300 DK , $6,800 FD)

Hemric moved from my risky pick last week to someone I want to build around this week. Starting 17th, he had top 5 single lap and 10 lap speeds on Saturday to go along with two top-11 finishes here in Xfinity. Hemric got a nice price decrease this week and I love his potential ceiling.

Brad Keselowski ($11,500 DK , $13,200 FD)

This is not a risky pick in the traditional sense. Keselowski posted great 10 lap averages on Saturday and has posted four consecutive top 9's. What makes him risky? Well, starting 13th he will pretty much need a top 2 to come close to value at his elevated price. He is starting in a quasi no-mans land, too far back to make value on place differential alone but not far enough forward to feel comfortable about picking up dominator points. If my theory that there will be no true dominator is correct, Kes will be a great pivot off of Harvick/Busch by offering a discount/safer floor with more place differential potential.

Bargain Bin

Phoenix Review:

• David Ragan (23.00 DK pts): Picked up 4 spots, not very eventful.

• Matt Tifft (34.00 DK pts): Tifft had the best car out of the drivers starting 30th or worse but needed more help to get in the top 15. Lucky for us Busch put up such a huge score that a 20th place finish was enough to get Tifft in the perfect lineup.

Auto Club Picks

Corey Lajoie ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD)

DraftKings' pricing has been brutal to start the year and there is almost nothing to feel comfortable about in this price range. Lajoie has one race here and finished 30th but the only way we can navigate these drivers is to bet on which car is faster than the ones behind him, not necessarily the ones in front of him. Lajoie has the best car out of the 30-38 range, so as long as he finishes the race, he should be able to pick up a few spots.

Bubba Wallace ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)

Wallace is another driver that we can get at a discount this Sunday. His car hasn't shown much this weekend but a finish of 20th last year is promising (even though it came with losing one spot). You are probably better saving this money and playing Lajoie but Wallace is an acceptable alternate.

Other Drivers To Consider

Phoenix Review

• Chase Elliott (24.00 DK pts)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (37.00 DK)

• Michael McDowell (-1 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Auto Club that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

William Byron ($6,900 DK, $7,100 FD)

Kurt Busch ($9,100 DK, $10,800 FD)

Chris Buescher ($9,100 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Phoenix Review:

• Ryan Blaney (76 DK pts): This was a huge miss. Blaney led 94 laps and finished 3rd on his way to a perfect lineup performance. He had speed all weekend in practice but he is one of those drivers that will practice well but can't figure it out on race day. Picked the wrong race to bet against him.

Auto Club Pick

Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $7,400)

Keeping with my theme of fade the pole sitter, my fade of the week is Austin Dillon. This is not the first time Dillon has started on the pole at Auto Club. In 2016, he started first and finished 24th. Dillon did post decent single lap times (9 and 9) but his 10 lap averages were not great (17 and 13). Overall, he may be able to hold on to a top 10 but that won't be enough to pay off.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Auto Club 400 CheatSheet , there are no individual driver notes this week feel free to find me in the chat or twitter, I will be around all day.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!