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NASCAR TicketGuardian 500 🏁

Another week, another rules package...there seems to be a theme for 2019. NASCAR is heading to ISM (Phoenix) Raceway in Avondale, Arizona for the TicketGuardian 500. ISM is a 1 mile tri-oval racetrack and will feature cars most closely related to last year's rule package. In theory, this should be the most predictable race of the season so far. But in DFS, anything can happen.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Stenhouse Jr, Kurt Busch, William Byron, Truex Jr, Buescher, Logano 348.25 DK pts.

$150K Slingshot:Stenhouse Jr, Kurt Busch, William Byron, Truex Jr, Buescher, Logano 348.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 277.25 DK pts.

$40K Happy Hour: Stenhouse Jr, Kurt Busch, William Byron, Truex Jr, Buescher, Logano 348.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 274.25 DK pts.

$400K Piston: Almirola, Kurt Busch, Byron, Chastain, Logano, Truex Jr. 343.50 DK pts.  Min cash: 287.00 DK pts.

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run and 78 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 267 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 133.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

This weekend's race will feature the "standard package" for 2019 which contains the new 8 inch spoiler but no other modifications . This means the cars should be able to run close to as fast as last season and there will be a separation of speeds. Most races here see at least one driver leading 100+ laps, and possibly another driver leading around 75 laps with the remaining laps being split by other drivers in small amounts. The dominator doesn't normally start on the front row but usually starts in the top 10, with the exception of Harvick starting 18th. A "stars and scrubs" lineup construction is not usually the best at ISM. While we should try to squeeze two high priced drivers that we think can lead laps into our lineups, we will need the rest of our lineup to be able to finish in the top 20 (ideally the top 15). The way qualifying worked out this weekend, there will be obvious high priced chalk in the back that can provide a nice floor/ceiling combination that we may only want to take one stab at a dominator.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 162 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (62.5 DK pts): Surprisingly under-owned, battled all race and didn't lead any laps but finished 8th with 23 fastest laps. He was in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

• Ryan Newman (25.50 DK pts): One of the highest owned drivers of the slate, he couldn't get going. Picked up a couple of spots but not enough to put up a good score.

Phoenix Picks:

Kyle Larson ($9,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

Larson mistimed his qualifying run so he will be starting 31st on Sunday. He will be incredibly chalky, especially in cash games, but I love his floor/ceiling combination. He is $2900 less than Kevin Harvick and should easily have a top 10 car this weekend. Larson has finished in the top 3 in three of his last five races here and is a great driver to build your lineups around.

Daniel Suarez ($7,600 DK, $7,400 FD)

Suarez had his own troubles in qualifying (that he tried to "discuss" with Michael McDowell on pit road) and will be starting 28th. He has some serious spring/fall race splits with two top 8 finishes in the spring and two sub-par races in the fall. His car is running much faster than the other cars starting around him and he has the highest ceiling in his price range.

Tournament Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Aric Almirola (59 DK pts): Finished 7th and could have made it higher, overall ran a great race and was in the perfect/winning lineups.

• Matt DiBenedetto (29 DK pts): Finished 21st, outscored Newman but was unable to pay off his elevated price.

• Brad Keselowski (73.75 DK pts): Almost pulled off a win but settled for second, led 17 laps and added 21 fastest laps. He did not score well enough to be in any winning lineup but put up a big enough number that he was very useful.

Phoenix Picks:

Kyle Busch ($12,200 DK , $14,200 FD)

Kyle Busch is starting 4th and has been one of the more dominant drivers at this track in recent memory. He has a win, 2nd, 7th and 3rd in the last 4 races here and has led 117, 128, 0, 114 laps during those races. He has the best track history out of the front four cars and would have won all three races last weekend if it weren't for a speeding penalty. I believe the two most likely dominators are Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick, but I give the nod to Busch this weekend because he is starting a little further forward and offers a slight discount.

Ryan Newman ($7,100 DK , $8,200 FD)

Newman is in a prime bounce-back spot after letting the masses down last weekend. Starting 18th, he may be overlooked but we are going to need lower priced drivers that can finish well and Newman fits the bill. He has five consecutive top 20's with four top 12's in the time. A finish of 11th would score him 40 points on place differential alone which, should be more than enough to get him into the perfect lineup.

Daniel Hemric ($6,900 DK , $7,300 FD)

My risky pick of the week in Daniel Hemric starting 11th. He is a high risk, high reward play that only needs to pick up a few spots to pay off salary but can lose you a ton of points if he runs into trouble. He has never finished worse than 7th in his four races here with the Xfinity series and has shown some speed this year (in the other packages).

Bargain Bin

Las Vegas Review:

• Landon Cassill (11.50 DK pts): Lost one spot

• Ross Chastain (16.00 DK pts): Gained five spots, was hurt because there was no attrition. He was actually in the $100,000 lineup but he was outscored by Lajoie.

Phoenix Picks

David Ragan ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

I am trying not to go this high in price with the bargain basement picks but he is actually only $700 more than min salary this weekend. Ragan is one of those drivers that generally qualifies better than he races and this weekend we get him starting 29th. His car is easily one of the two fastest cars in his price range. We are going to try to avoid these drivers if we can due to their limited ceiling but you could do much worse than Ragan.

Matt Tifft ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

The other driver with a serviceable car in this price range is Matt Tifft. Tifft is another driver with a good Xfin history here with four top 12's but he is in significantly worse equipment than Hemric. Overall, I believe you can play either Ragan or Tifft if you need serious salary relief but I think we need to roster drivers that have a chance at a top 15.

Other Drivers To Consider

Las Vegas Review

• Kyle Busch (58.25 DK pts)

• Kurt Busch (73.75 DK)

• Daniel Suarez (37 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($9,300 DK, $11,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,500 DK, $8,700 FD)

Michel McDowell ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Las Vegas Review:

• Denny Hamlin (30 DK pts): Hamlin didn't blow up and even finished in the top 10 but overall was not very useful.

Phoenix Pick

Ryan Blaney ($8,200 DK, $9,500)

This feels like a risky fade this week due to his price. But consider this, Blaney would have to lead the entire first stage and finish in the top 6 to score 50 points. While 50 points from an $8,200 driver is usually more than enough to get them in the perfect lineup, I don't think Blaney has any chance of leading that many laps and he hasn't finished better than 16th here in the last 4 races.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the TicketGuardian 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!