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NASCAR Pennzoil 400 🏁

NASCAR is making their first trip of the season to Sin City this week for the Pennzoil 400. Las Vegas Motor Speedway, located in the Clark County, Nevada, is a 1.5 mile tri-oval and will be the first race of the year to feature every aspect of the new rules package. Last week we saw that faster cars could gain separation even under the new package, but the addition of air ducts this week will emphasize drafting and could promote an entirely different type of racing than we are used to.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Buescher, Larson, Truex Jr., Jones, Ragan, Keselowski 382.25 DK pts.

$125K Slingshot: Buescher, Larson, Truex Jr., Jones, Ragan, Keselowski 382.25 DK pts. Min cash: 271.75 DK pts.

$50K Happy Hour: Buescher, Larson, Truex Jr., Jones, Ragan, Keselowski 382.25 DK pts. Min cash: 268.00 DK pts.

$400K Piston: Buescher, Larson, Truex Jr., Jones, Ragan, Keselowski 382.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 281.00 DK pts.

On to Las Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 227 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 113.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

This race will be another one defined by uncertainty. While last weekend's race showed the effect of some body changes that were implemented this year, this will be the first race with the full package (everything from last week plus aero ducts). Everyone around the industry is expecting this to mean more drafting, more pack racing and less separation between the faster and slower cars. Last week showed that a fast car could pull away without the aero ducts and the race had a major dominator. This week we will have to make a decision on how dominator-heavy we want to build our lineups. Traditionally, at Las Vegas, if there isn't one driver leading all the laps, many drivers will lead 50-90 laps, making a 1 or no dominator lineup feasible. As scary as this sounds, the optimal cash build may be 0 dominator lineup because there are enough drivers starting further back in the field that can provide a high floor/high ceiling lineup. Each of the last four perfect lineups had two drivers priced $10,000+ but only one had a driver priced under $5,700. So a more balanced approached may be preferred. Drivers starting in the front row will generally lead some laps and at least one of the two have been in each of the last four perfect lineups. Starting outside the top 10 does not preclude drivers from leading laps but they should start within the top 15. Until we see how everything shakes out, I would refrain from thinking about these races like restrictor plate races (where we want to start drivers in the rear and hope they survive the carnage) but there is the potential of a "Big One" and that could alter the landscape of the entire race.

I want to caution everyone again this week about bankroll management, there are so many unknowns going into the next few races that I suggest playing light for the time being. There are 33 more races after this one so we will have plenty of opportunities to play our normal amount when we feel more comfortable.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Atlanta Review:

• Joey Logano (42.5 DK pts): Running second with about 20 laps left when his wheel got loose, was still able to salvage his race but was a smash until then.

• Denny Hamlin (28.00 DK pts): He could never get past the Fords and lost 7 spots.

Las Vegas Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100 DK, $13,500 FD)

Truex Jr. is expected to be one of the chalkiest drivers of the weekend but in NASCAR, eating chalk is not a bad thing. He has the highest combined driver rating over the last 4 races here and is starting 23rd providing a higher floor than most high priced drivers as well as a nice ceiling without needing to lead laps. His practice times are poor but I think that may be more draft related than anything. Last season Truex Jr. was a master at 1.5 mile tracks and he has 267 laps on Sunday to make a move up front.

Ryan Newman ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD)

Ryan Newman does not appear this high up in the article this week but I love him as another high floor, high ceiling driver that provides salary relief to boot. Newman starts 29th on Sunday, has picked up spots in each of the last 6 races here and has a high finish of 3 and a low finish of 17. He will most likely be another very highly owned driver but I am going to make it a priority to build around him.

Tournament Targets

Atlanta Review:

• Chase Elliott (28.5 DK pts): Could never really get anything going, picked up three spots but was essentially a non-factor.

• Chris Buescher (56.50 DK pts): I liked Buescher for his safe floor but he was able to run a ceiling race. Finished 9th and even recorded a fastest lap, he was in every winning lineup.

• Aric Almirola (45.00 DK pts): I liked Almirola to lead every lap until the first caution, unlucky for me it was the competition caution at lap 35. A pitting penalty added insult to injury later in the race.

Las Vegas Picks:

Aric Almirola ($8,600 DK , $10,000 FD)

Staying on brand, Almirola is starting 25th but has a top 10 car easily, judging by his single lap times as well as his 10 lap average. Since his equipment upgrade last season, he has been a new driver, including two top 10 finishes here last year. If he can avoid any unforced errors he should be able to pull off another top 10 here and easily pay off his salary.

Matt DiBenedetto ($6,700 DK , $6,300 FD)

The darling of Daytona came back to earth at Atlanta with a 26th place finish. This week I think we can get him in a buy low position. With many big names starting around him in the 20's, he has the ability to stay in their draft and move up the field. His price is adjusting much quicker than other drivers but a top 15 is what I am aiming for, anything higher than that will surely put him in the perfect lineup.

Brad Keselowski ($11,400 DK , $14,000 FD)

Coming full circle on my 0 dominator prediction, Keselowski is my risky tournament pick of the week. Kes has three wins in the last 6 races here and has seven consecutive top 7's. He is starting 19th but had the third best 10 lap average during the second practice and knows how to race at Las Vegas. I would love for him to get up front and lead some laps like he did last week but a top 5 would get him to 5x.

Bargain Bin

Atlanta Review:

• Ty Dillon (12.00 DK pts): Fell back pretty quickly and was disappointing

• Ross Chastain (15.00 DK pts): Gained one spot.

Las Vegas Picks

Landon Cassill ($5,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

Even though there is less difference between the fast and slow cars this year, the bad cars are still pretty bad. Cassill is right on the cusp and should be able to hang on with the main pack and should not be in danger of losing the draft. While the cheaper drivers may look appealing, I think $5,500 is as low as we can go this week.

Ross Chastain ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

Chastain makes another appearance here because he is starting last and doesn't have the worst car in the field. He is much more expensive than what I would like to pay for a punt but in reality, if he survives the race, he should be able to pay off his salary

Other Drivers To Consider

Atlanta Review

• Daniel Hemric (37.00 DK pts)

• Kurt Busch (48.75 DK)

• Ryan Blaney (44.75 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($11,900 DK, $13,200 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,200 DK, $9,600 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Atlanta Review:

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (13.75 DK pts): Not the lowest scoring driver and even led a few laps but he did not help anyone win money.

Las Vegas Pick

Denny Hamlin ($8,800 DK, $11,500)

Hamlin is starting on the front row but with Harvick starting next to him and Kyle Busch starting behind him, I like his chances to dominate the least of the 3. Hamlin has only finished better than 17th twice in the last 5 races here and has never lead more than 10 laps. His price is nice but he is a full fade as far as I'm concerned.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Pennzoil 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!