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NASCAR Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 🏁

After the pomp and circumstance of last week's Daytona 500, the grind begins with the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. Atlanta is a 1.54 mile quad oval track and will be the first track to run a variation of the new NASCAR rules package. There will be a lot of uncertainty about this race and what to expect from the cars themselves so this may be a week to play light and see how everything shakes out.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Jones, McDowell, Larson, Chastain, Hamlin, Kyle Busch 409.75 DK pts.

$250K Slingshot: Jones, McDowell, Keselowski, Chastain, Hamlin, Kyle Busch 406.75 DK pts. Min cash: 245.00 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Jones, McDowell, Keselowski, Chastain, Hamlin, Kyle Busch 406.75 DK pts. Min cash: 274.25DK pts.

$750K America's Race: Jones, McDowell, Larson, Chastain, Hamlin, Kyle Busch 409.75 DK pts Min cash: 273.00 DK pts.

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 325 laps will be run and 81.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 290 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 145 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

This weekend's race is going to be hard to predict for entirely different reasons than last week's. This race will be the first to feature some aspects of NASCAR's new rules package which include lower horsepower and body changes that promote drafting. There will be several different variations of the rules package implemented at different tracks, so it will take some time figure out exactly how racing will be affected. NASCAR is aiming to make the fast cars go slower and the slower cars go...not as slow (?) in the hopes that fewer cars will get lapped and there will not be as many run away winners. The DFS implications of these changes project to be: 1) fewer major dominators per race and more minor dominators, 2) greater importance to place differential 3) higher risk of drivers being caught in a wreck. This is all theoretical for now, so I suggest practicing caution the next few weeks.

If that wasn't enough to take into consideration, Atlanta's racing surface is so bad that it chews up tires, slowing cars down by seconds after only a few laps. That, by itself, is a nuisance but coupling that with everything mentioned above may make practice times less reliable than we would like. Traditionally, there is one major dominator at Atlanta that starts in the top 6 and leads at least 115 laps but that driver has not always ended up in the perfect lineup due to poor finishes. There is also a possibility of minor dominators leading between 50-90 laps. Good drivers qualifying terribly is also a theme at Atlanta, providing some safety from a place differential standpoint, but this year everyone starting 30+ is a back marker. There has been a driver priced under $5000 in the perfect lineup in two of the last three races. The most notable thing that stood out in the last three perfect lineups is that they each had at least 5 drivers finish in the top 15. That may seem like a no brainer but its important to point out that any driver you choose that starts outside the top 20 needs to have an expectation of at least a 15th place finish unless it is a super cheap driver that we are jamming in (but only pick one of those). Any driver selected within the top 10 must be able to lead laps and hold onto a top 10.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 85 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 155 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Daytona Review:

• Michael McDowell (70.5 DK pts): Matt DiBenedetto may have won the hearts and minds of fans during the race but McDowell won the money for DFS players, finishing 5th and tying for the second most points scored on the slate.

• Tyler Reddick (30.5 DK pts): He was not as sneaky as I would have liked but provided the safety we were looking for by scoring 30.5 points even though he didn't finish the race.

Atlanta Picks:

Joey Logano ($11,700 DK, $13,200 FD)

Joey Logano qualified 27th, making him the big name driver starting the furthest in the back and I want that safety in a week filled with uncertainty. Logano has finished in the top 14 in each of the last six races and has four top 6's in that time. He also has experience starting this far back at Atlanta when he started 26th and finished 12th. I don't think he will be able to lead any laps but I see a floor of 10 and a ceiling of a top 5.

Denny Hamlin ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

This is a riskier pick than I would prefer in this section but my choice to dominate the race is Denny Hamlin. Like many drivers not named Kevin Harvick, Hamlin's recent history is nothing to write home about. His long term history is promising, with a win in 2012 and laps led in 5 of the last 7 races here. I feel like $10,000 is too cheap for Hamlin, so I am going to try to play him when I can afford to.

Tournament Targets

Daytona Review:

• Kyle Busch (82.75 DK pts): Highest scoring driver on the slate and, to my surprise, slightly more popular than Kes. A Busch/Kes lineup did take down two of the featured tournaments in the beginning of the article but it was a Busch-only lineup that took home the big prize.

• Brendan Gaughan (29.00 DK pts): Gaughan battled the whole way and limped to the finish, put up a respectable score but wasn't enough to make any winning lineups.

• Martin Truex Jr. (-12.50 DK pts): My risky pick of the week was a catastrophe, he was the third lowest scoring driver of the race.

Atlanta Picks:

Chase Elliott ($9,700 DK , $12,200 FD)

I try to avoid writing up this many high priced drivers, but qualifying was all over the map so we should be able to fit in a number of these drivers to create a lineup that has a solid floor and access to a ceiling. Elliott is another driver who has a history of qualifying poorly (average starting position of 20.67) but then finishing well (average finishing position of 7.67). He is starting 22nd on Sunday, so we are going to need at least his average finish and anything higher is just profit.

Chris Buescher ($6,200 DK , $6,000 FD)

There is very little to feel comfortable about this weekend and this pick is no different. We need to save salary but still have drivers that can finish in the top 15 and Buescher has a mix of both of those qualities. Buescher only has a top finish here of 24th but starting 30th I am confident that none of the cars starting behind him are better than his, so all he has to do is stay safe and he should be able to pick up enough spots for at least a top 20 with a ceiling of around 15.

Aric Almirola ($8,700 DK , $10,000 FD)

My risky tournament pick of the week is also a pivot off of one of my foundational targets (Hamlin). I believe Almirola will lead laps early on, especially with teammate Clint Bowyer right behind him to help block. And if he can rack up enough laps led and hold on to a decent finish, he could make the perfect lineup. It is nerve-wracking rostering the pole sitter if you don't think he is absolutely going to dominate, because the only place differential is negative. But if drivers are gun shy about the new rules package, he has the ability to at least lead the entire first stage.

Bargain Bin

Daytona Review:

• Landon Cassill (28.00 DK pts): Picked up three spots but still not much to write home about.

• Casey Mears (4.50 DK pts): Mears was also surprisingly popular but his race was ended before everyone else's when he ran into the back of another driver at lap 104.

Atlanta Picks

Ty Dillon ($5,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

The prices for the low tier drivers is compressed for this race and I believe Ty Dillon has the best ceiling of the bunch. Dillon is starting 21st so he carries significant risk but he has a top 15 to his name and has gained spots every time he has raced at Atlanta.

Ross Chastain ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

There is really not much to choose from down here and after last week's performance, I think Chastain may actually be popular, but I am not going to ask him to do too much. Judging by previous perfect lineups, as long as he doesn't crash he should pick up enough spots to be serviceable.

Other Drivers To Consider

Daytona Review

• Erik Jones (70.5 DK pts)

• Jimmie Johnson (46.00 DK)

• Kyle Larson (60.50 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Daniel Hemric ($6,800 DK, $5,000 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,500 DK, $9,600 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($8,900 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daytona Review:

• William Byron (16.50 DK pts): He didn't completely blow up but 16.5 points is not something you could afford in your lineups this weekend.

Atlanta Pick

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,500 DK, $7,600)

Stenhouse is the odd man out up front with teammates Almirola and Bowyer sandwiching him. I highly doubt he gets close to the lead and this is one of those tracks where Stenhouse qualifies very well but then falls off. If he runs into any problems at all he can ruin a lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!