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NASCAR Daytona 500 🏁

NASCAR welcomes the LineStar faithful back for another exciting season of racing. We kick things off with the biggest race of the year, the Daytona 500. Growing up, I also thought it was a backwards way of operating, having your biggest race of the year being the first one but there is a different kind of buzz around this race and it is noticeable. Daytona is a 2.5 mile tri-oval track and is one of the two restrictor plate tracks on the NASCAR circuit. Restrictor plates are devices that NASCAR mandates every team attaches to the engine of their car that limits how fast the car can go, essentially giving every car the same top speed. The exciting part about restrictor plate racing is that is forces drivers to race in packs so one slip up can be catastrophic and slate altering.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 160 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 80 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

The strategy for restrictor plate tracks is much different than the standard cookie cutter tracks (1.5 mile D-shaped ovals). Using LineStar, I was able to compile a list of the perfect lineups for each of the last 6 races at Daytona and created a new tab in my cheatsheet. The first thing you may notice is the perfect lineups for the last 6 races at Daytona didn't come anywhere close to using the entire salary cap. For most daily fantasy sports, leaving $8,000-$10,000 of salary on the board is unthinkable, but this week it may be a solid option. As mentioned above, restrictor plates force the drivers to race in packs and if one driver slips up he can take out 10-15 drivers, causing "The Big One." Major crashes like that will drastically alter the field, causing the drivers involved to put up negative scores while providing an inflated scores for the drivers that survive.

The traditional thinking at plate tracks is avoid anyone starting in the top 10 and dominators don't matter. But the perfect lineup in two of the last three Daytona 500's had a driver that led more than 95 laps, which leaves us with a decision to make. In cash games I would avoid the top 10 entirely and maybe even the top 20 because we are only concerned about securing our floor and minimizing the risk in our lineups. For tournaments, this is the perfect week to multi-enter as opposed to playing a single bullet because if one of your lineups has 6 drivers that finish the race, it has a real chance to win big money. We will want 4-5 drivers that start 23rd or worse (with 2-3 starting 30+) and depending on your risk tolerance, at least 1 driver that starts 5th-23rd. Last year was a bit of an anomaly, with three drivers in the top 16 making the perfect lineup. I truly don't expect that to happen again, but if you are going for first place you are going to want to play at least one driver that starts further forward.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Daytona Picks:

Michael McDowell ($5,900 DK, $6,200 FD)

McDowell is not a driver that I ever recommend, let alone build around. But he is starting 34th this weekend and has a great record at Daytona. He has a positive place differential in five of his last six races here with five top 15s and two top 10s. He usually qualifies much better here (in the low 20s) so he would carry much more risk but Sunday he is starting in the perfect spot and a top 15 will almost guarantee him being in the perfect lineup.

Tyler Reddick ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

Who? Reddick is last year's Xfinity champion and will be making his MENCS debut driving an unchartered 31 car and starting 39th. This is not the same 31 car that Ryan Newman drove last season. But judging by his practice times, there is enough speed for the car to keep up with the pack. Reddick has four career Xfinity races at Daytona with a win at last year's 500 but three other races with negative place differential. He provides safety because of his starting position and hopefully will go under-owned because casual players will not recognize the name.

Tournament Targets

Daytona Picks:

Kyle Busch ($9,600 DK , $10,300 FD)

There are two big names starting 30+ with Kyle Busch starting 31st and Brad Keselowski starting 35th and they are going to be major chalk. Salary will not be an issue this week so in cash, don't overthink this and play both. In tournaments, I am going to have more Busch than Kes. Don't take that to mean that you can't play both in tournaments too but they will be so highly owned that if either has a any trouble, close to 70% of the field will be affected. Keselowski has had an accident in each of the last 4 races, he did win in July of 2016 but he didn't finish better than 18th in the four races previous to that one either. Busch has fared slightly better, no wins but has had six top 20's in his last 10 races at Daytona. Since Keselowski is starting four places further back, I believe he will be the highest owned driver of the slate, making him a great fade in satellites/qualifiers, and the pivot to a chalky but still less owned Kyle Busch may be the play.

Brendan Gaughan ($6,000 DK , $5,300 FD)

Gaughan may be another driver that goes overlooked due to lack of name recognition but he is a restrictor plate specialist of sorts, only running four races in each of the last 2 seasons. He has three top 12 finishes in his last four races at Daytona and generally doesn't qualify well, so he will be used to driving in back of the field and avoiding the chaos.

Martin Truex Jr. ($8,800 DK , $9,300 FD)

My riskier tournament choice of the week will be Martin Truex Jr. starting 11th. While picking a driver starting this far forward in the Daytona 500, you are only looking for drivers that can win or lead laps and I think Truex has a chance to do both. He was able to land in the perfect lineup in July when he finished 2nd and led 20 laps after starting 13th. If he can put up a similar performance on Sunday he should be in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Bin

This year I am going to do this section a little different, with two drivers under $5,5000 that I think can help win a tournament. Last year, pricing was tough with only 3-4 drivers in the sub-$5000 range to choose from and no good option.

Daytona Picks

Landon Cassill ($5,200 DK, $4,600 FD)

Cassill is starting starting 27th and has gained spots in each of the last six races at Daytona with a top finish of 13 in that time frame. He has a finish of 19 and 16 when starting 26th and 27th, which didn't put him in the perfect lineup but still helped record a nice score.

Casey Mears ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

Mears is another Xfinity driver in the field with little to no name recognition. He is starting dead last and can't go negative, so he should be in consideration for some ownership.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Erik Jones ($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,500 DK, $8,200 FD)

Kyle Larson ($7,800 DK, $8,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daytona Pick

William Byron ($6,800 DK, $7,500)

Starting on the pole is not where you want to be in Daytona for DFS purposes. He will not be in the winning lineup unless he completely dominates or last year's race was part of a trend and not an anomaly. Either way, I am rolling out a full fade of the top 5 and no one stands to lose more points than Byron.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Daytona 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!