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NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Clash 🏁

Welcome Back! The NASCAR season begins this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for Speedweek 2019. Speedweek consists of The Clash on Sunday, two Duals on Thursday and of course, the Daytona 500 next Sunday. This year, the clash will have 20 entrants all of whom have either 1) made the playoffs in 2018, 2) won a pole in 2018, 3) won a pole for the Daytona 500 in the past or 4) previous won the clash or the Daytona 500. The race will only be 75 laps long, and will have a caution at lap 25. This is an abbreviated race so we will have an abbreviated article but there is still big cash to be won, including the Octane that has a top price of $20,000 and pays out the top 21.3 % of the field.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 75 laps will be run and 18.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 65 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 32.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 20th place driver receives 24 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (19th=25, 18th=26…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Lets start with a quick refresher about Daytona, it is a 2.5 mile D-shaped oval that is one of the two restrictor plate tracks on the NASCAR circuit. A restrictor plate is a device that NASCAR mandates that every driver have on their engine that effectively caps the maximum speed of the cars. Racing on restrictor plate tracks is much different than anywhere else because the cars are essentially the same, so the drivers will run in a pack and if one driver slips up, he can take out half the field.

The Clash is unique for many reasons: it is a short race (only 75 laps), counts for only bragging rights, and the better funded drivers actually bring a Clash only car with them to Daytona, so if it gets wrecked they don't have to worry about their chances in the 500. Draftkings is not changing their scoring system for the race (as noted above) so the last place driver will receive 24 points. So, theoretically, Paul Menard can start on the pole and lead 74 laps but wreck and finish last and score 22.5 points, less than the driver starting last and finishing 19th. This is an extreme example but the point I am trying to prove is laps led is not as important as finishing position during the Clash. Two of the last three perfect lineups have had the drivers that led the most laps in them, but thats because they were also the race winners. While it may seem like we want to just pick the drivers starting 15th-20th but that has not always paid off. We are going to want to take on some risk and play two to three drivers further forward (7th-11th) that can stay clean. Last year's race was an anomaly, only having one driver crash, but expect about a third of the field to get into some sort of trouble. This is the perfect weekend to play light and instead of making one lineup, make multiple lineups and enter them in lower dollar contests because all you need is one clean lineup to shoot up the leaderboard.

Drivers to Target

Denny Hamlin ($8,300 DK)

Hamlin loves to lead laps in the Clash and was able to lead 39 laps when he won in 2016 while starting 15th. Yes, I know we just talked about how leading laps is not as important as finishing position but this year, Hamlin is starting 17th and has shown he knows how to get up front. He has a cushion built in this year due to his low starting position, so I see him as a high floor, high ceiling option.

Kurt Busch ($7,300 DK)

Salary is not too much of a concern this week, but it is nice to have some salary relief with Kurt this weekend. He has scored more than 50 points in two of the last 3 Clashes and a top 10 finish should get him in the winning lineup.

Joey Logano ($9200 DK)

Joey Logano is looking to make a statement in 2019 after winning the championship in 2018 and there's no better way to start the year off than winning the Clash. Logano is great in this race with finishes of 2nd ,1st, 2nd in his last three. I originally was looking at Austin Dillon starting 9th as my forward pick but am going with Logano because I believe he has much higher upside and is worth the extra risk. Dillon is a fine pivot and should be somewhat low owned.

Top Driver to Avoid

Paul Menard ($5,800 DK, $11,500)

For some reason, I feel like every week I wanted to write up Menard as a fade or a play last year and I am going to continue the trend. There is almost no way he will make it to the winning lineup while starting on the pole and if he does, then good for him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Advance Auto Parts Clash CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck