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NASCAR Ford EcoBoost 400 🏁

We made it! 9 months and 35 races have lead us to this weekend where NASCAR will crown their champion. The race will be held at Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL. It is a 1.5 mile oval with variable banking, so it races like many other tracks on the circuit but the intensity is ramped up to an unbelievable level and craziness can ensue.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Keselowski, Kenseth, McMurray, Almirola, Wallace, Kyle Busch 386.25 DK pts.

$25K Chrome Horn: Almirola, Kyle Busch, Byron, Kenseth, Keselowski, McMurray 378.25 DK pts Min cash: 259.25 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Almirola, Kyle Busch, Keselowski, McMurray, Newman, Wallace 385.75 DK pts. Min cash: 272.00 DK pts.

$100K Piston: Almirola, Kyle Busch, Byron, Kenseth, Keselowski, McMurray 378.25 DK pts Min cash: 272.25 DK pts.

On to Homestead!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 272 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 136 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

This race is for all the glory and there have been some interesting trends. Four of the previous five races at Homestead have had one driver lead between 125-150 laps and a second driver lead around 70 laps. The main dominator has been a non-playoff driver in four of those races, but none of those drivers went on to win. The winner of the last four races here have been playoff drivers however, and a second playoff driver usually finishes in the top 4 (with three second place finishes). Last year, two playoff drivers were in the perfect lineup but this year pricing has gotten tighter, three of the four playoff drivers are more expensive than the most expensive driver on the slate last year. Drivers can pass here and good drivers can make big moves. For place differential drivers, we are going to look for drivers that can pick up at least 8 spots and ideally finish in the top 20. A stars and scrubs approach may be warranted with at least 1 playoff driver, 1 driver we think can dominate and then drivers we think can make a move. I don't usually put picks in this section but I strongly recommend having exposure to all 4 playoff drivers this weekend, possibly playing lower dollar tournaments with more entries. There is a price disparity between Harvick ($12,500) and Logano ($10,600) but an idea for this weekend is running 4 lineups with the same core and mixing and matching the playoff driver with another piece that fits the lineup.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Phoenix Review:

• Kevin Harvick (64.25 DK pts): Harvick led the first 73 laps and then blew a tire. He had the best car but he had to battle through traffic the rest of the way and finished 5th.

• Daniel Suarez (-2.00 DK pts): Suarez was running well until he crashed into the back of Kenseth and ended his day. The reason he was a foundation play was because of his starting position, if the worst case scenario happened you would still be alive. Suarez ruined a lot of people hopes of winning a tournament but you could still cash with him in your lineup.

Homestead Picks:

Kyle Busch ($11,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Kyle Busch is starting second next to his teammate Denny Hamlin and is the playoff driver starting furthest forward. He hasn't been the dominant driver here since 2012 but is the only driver to lead laps in each of the last 3 races here. Truex is starting 3rd but there is a chance that Busch will take the lead early and Hamlin will block Truex for a while. I like Harvick's chances to get up front eventually and since he is starting 12th, if he finishes in the top 2, he will score 10 place differential points, equivalent to 40 laps led by Busch. I think Busch has the best chance to dominate and win but ranking them, I would put Busch>Harvick>Truex Jr> Logano. Don't sleep on Logano though. He has shown incredible speed in practice which may increase his ownership. I liked Logano as a low owned/high upside option but after the Saturday practices a lot of eyes will be on him, maybe taking some of the ownership off of Busch.

Clint Bowyer ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

I am choosing another high floor driver this week as my second foundational pick. Bowyer qualified 26th (just like Suarez last week) and has ten top 12 finishes in the last 12 races here. Bowyer is having a career year despite struggling at 1.5 mile tracks. He does have three top 10's however, and hasn't finished worse than 23rd in any clean race he has had at similar tracks.

Tournament Targets

Phoenix Review:

• Aric Almirola (59.00 DK pts): Almirola needed a win but finished 4th and picked up 10 fastest laps. He was in the perfect and every winning lineup.

• Ryan Newman (47.00 DK pts): Newman finished 11th and was in one winning lineup. He was slightly shown up by Jamie McMurray

• Denny Hamlin (32.50 DK pts): While Suarez was the villain of the week for DFS, Hamlin was the villain of the week for some NASCAR drivers. While racing for the lead, he made contact with Kurt Busch, ending Busch and Elliot's playoff runs.

Homestead Picks:

Jamie McMurray ($7,100 DK , $8,000 FD)

We are going to need drivers that pick up spots and finish in the top 20 and that's exactly what I think McMurray can do this weekend. Starting 21st, McMurray hasn't finished worse than 13th in his last 4 races here and has two 5th place finishes.

Kyle Larson ($10,000 DK , $12,500 FD)

Larson is in a tricky place this week. He has dominated the last 2 races at Homestead, leading 145 and 132 laps respectively and only has one finish worse than 9th all year at 1.5 mile tracks. Both of those stats make me think he will be very popular this weekend but his price and the fact that he is not in the final four may lower his ownership. He is the most likely non-playoff driver dominator candidate but he will need to make some sort of move to pay off his salary and fitting all of those high priced drivers is impossible. He is definitely a GPP driver because of his high ceiling but in cash, I prefer Bowyer.

Chris Buescher ($6,100 DK , $6,800 FD)

We need salary relief somewhere and this week I am looking towards Buescher to help with that. He has a positive place differential in each of his two races here and even has a high finish of 20th. He is starting one spot further forward than William Byron but offers an $800 discount. And while I don't think he has as high of a ceiling, he definitely has a higher floor.

Bargain Bin

Phoenix Review:

• Landon Cassill (24.00 DK pts): He wasn't in any winning lineups but almost reached value.

• Ross Chastain (30.50 DK pts): Chastain was the highest scoring driver in the sub $5,500 range but was not in any winning lineups.

Homestead Picks

Sub $5,500- Landon Cassill ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD)

I am rolling with Cassill one more time to end the season. This race is all about ceiling and in this range, there aren't too many drivers that can pick up 8 spots but Cassill is one of them. He has a high finish of 21st here and has 3 top-25 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks this season.

Sub $5,500- Ross Chastain ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

I am breaking some rules here but hey, it's the last week. Not only am I repeating the drivers from last week, I am double dipping in the $5,500-$5000 range. I really don't think any driver priced under $5,000 will be able to be in the winning lineup unless all hell breaks loose (which is always a possibility) but I love Chastain's chances to pick up at least 8 spots. He has finished 30th or better in eight of eleven 1.5 mile tracks this season and starts dead last. As long as he doesn't get caught up in Tanner Berryhill's random spin outs, he should pay off his salary.

Other Drivers To Consider

Phoenix Review

• Chase Elliott (21.00 DK pts) Led 16 laps and was making a move when he got caught up in the Hamlin/Busch incident.

• Brad Keselowski (79.50 DK)- I mentioned in the chat that I loved Kes's car but hated his history. He led 32 laps and finished second on his way to the perfect lineup and every winning lineup.

• Ty Dillon (34.00 DK pts) Picked up 9 spots.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Homestead that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Paul Menard ($7,000 DK, $7,300 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000 DK, $9,200 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Phoenix Review:

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-19.00 DK pts): Second lowest scoring driver on the weekend.

Homestead Pick

Denny Hamlin ($8,800 DK, $11,500)

Over the course of the season I have mentioned Hamlin's name in this article more than I have ever dreamed of. Every week I look for a reason to fade him and while it may seem crazy to fade the driver on the pole, he has actually started first in two of the last three races here and hasn't led a single lap. I don't think he is completely going to blow up like Stenhouse did last week but he carries way more risk than I am willing to deal with, especially with two big dogs starting right behind him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Ford EcoBoost 400 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!

***I want to thank everyone for their support over course of the season. I started this with my cheatsheets on my Twitter account and it turned into 23 articles for one of the best sites in the industry. I also want to thank LineStar for giving me this opportunity and I hope to see one of you guys at the top of the leaderboard to close out the season.***