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NASCAR Can-Am 500 🏁

Ladies and (mostly) gentlemen we are down to the second to last race of the season, the Can-AM 500 at ISM (formerly Phoenix) Raceway located in Avondale, AZ. Phoenix is a 1 mile D shape oval type track that is known for its odd configuration that some drivers use to cut off part of the track. This will be the final race in the stage of 8 and with only one driver locked into the final four, there should be a ton of action.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup:Stenhouse Jr., Jones, Blaney, Ty Dillon, Harvick, Austin Dillon 372.25 DK pts.

$25K Chrome Horn: Blaney, Bowman, Austin Dillon, Ty Dillon, Harvick, Jones 370.50 DK pts Min cash: 297.25 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Blaney, Austin Dillon, Harvick, Jones, Ragan, Stenhouse Jr. 368.25 DK pts. Min cash: 304.75 DK pts.

$100K Piston: Blaney, Bowman, Austin Dillon, Harvick, Jones, Wallace 481.50 DK pts. Min cash: 304.25 DK pts.

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run and 83.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 272 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 136 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Four of the last five races at Phoenix have seen only one driver lead more than 100 laps, with one race where two drivers led more than 100. The major dominator does not necessarily start on the pole and oddly enough, also isn't usually the winner. Track history will play a major factor this weekend and a balanced lineup may be the best approach. Low priced drivers are viable this week if you want to go stars and scrubs but we should focus on place differential plays as opposed to trying to nail every driver that will lead laps.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 75 laps, Stage 3: 162 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Texas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (133.75 DK pts): Harvick completely dominated, leading 177 laps, scoring 83 fast laps and winning the race.

• Chase Elliott (49.50 DK pts): I liked paying up for Elliott as a pivot off of Jones and even though he ran a nice race, Jones edged him out.

Phoenix Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($12,300 DK, $14,500 FD)

I love Harvick as the main dominator this week. Phoenix is one of his best tracks (6 wins in his last 10 races here) and he has the best car. Due to a post-race inspection failure, he did not secure a spot in the final four with his victory and will have something to prove. I don't want to get too long winded, play Harvick.

Daniel Suarez ($7,800 DK, $8,300 FD)

Suarez qualified terribly (26th) but has had single lap practice times in the mid teens and has also had 10 lap averages much better than his qualifying position. He has two top 10 finishes in the races here and also two races with positive place differential. I like Suarez as a decent floor/high ceiling play this weekend.

Tournament Targets

Texas Review:

• Martin Truex Jr. (49.50 DK pts): Truex finished in the top 10 but did not pay off his salary.

• Jamie McMurray (27.50 DK pts): McMurray only picked up one spot.

• Ryan Blaney (65.00 DK pts): I liked Blaney's chance to lead the early portion of the race and be overtaken by Harvick and that is exactly what happened.

Phoenix Picks:

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK , $10,600 FD)

We are getting Almirola at a decent price this weekend and he is starting 18th, which gives him a nice ceiling on place differential by itself. Almirola has positive place differential in each of his last 6 races here with 3 top 10's. I like him for a top 8 and that would be more than enough to pay off his salary. He just about needs a win to move on in the playoffs, so he will be willing to do anything to get up front.

Ryan Newman ($7,100 DK , $9,000 FD)

Newman is another reasonably priced driver that provides a nice ceiling. Starting 22nd, Newman has only one finish worse than 20th when he has stayed clean (2 crashes). His single lap times are not where I want them to be but his 10 lap times are good. A top 15 is all he needs to pay off his salary and that's what I like as his floor.

Denny Hamlin ($8,600 DK , $11,400 FD)

Hamlin is my dark horse pick to possibly be a dominator. He is not racing for the playoffs but he is starting 10th and has five top 10's in his last 6 races here while leading 226 laps combined over the last 2.

Bargain Bin

Texas Review:

• Matt DiBenedetto (-1.00 DK pts): Started 31st, finished 38th... yuck

• Ross Chastain (13.00 DK pts): Picked up one spot, not great.

Phoenix Picks

Sub $5,500- Landon Cassill ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

Cassill has a great history here, with positive place differential in each of his last four races here and a top finish of 20. He is starting 32nd, so he can go negative if he runs into trouble. I would feel much better about him if he hasn't struggled this season.

Sub $5,000- Ross Chastain ($4,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

I am going back to the well with Chastain. He gained 11 spots last race and was actually in the perfect lineup. The other option in the tier is DJ Kennington, who I think is also a decent option.

Other Drivers To Consider

Texas Review

• Joey Logano (68.00 DK pts)

• Jimmie Johnson (39.75 DK)

• Ty Dillon (27.00 DK pts)

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($9,900 DK, $13,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK, $11,200 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Texas Review:

• William Byron (21.50 DK pts): Lost 7 spots but didn't go negative.

Phoenix Pick

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,600 DK, $8,100)

Stenhouse Jr. is starting 3rd but hasn't practiced better than 18th. He doesn't have the worst history but it's either winning or losing spots. If he holds on to a top 10, good for him. But he is not worth the risk.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Can-Am 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!