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NASCAR AAA Texas 500 🏁

NASCAR moves on to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas for the AAA Texas 500. Texas is a 1.5 mile quad oval(ish) track that has variable banking throughout the entire track. While the description sounds funky, it functions mostly like a cookie cutter 1.5 tri-oval track and drivers that run well on those tracks also have a good Texas history. The season is winding down and DraftKings has shrunk some contests again this week, so please keep on entering and let DK know we are still going strong.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Hamlin, Newman, Truex Jr*., Johnson*, Logano, Ragan 506.50 DK pts.

$25K Chrome Horn: Buescher, Hamlin, Johnson, Logano, Newman, Truex Jr.* 492.50 DK pts Min cash: 317.50 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Hamlin, Johnson*, Logano, Newman, Ragan, Truex Jr*. 506.50 DK pts. Min cash: 331.25 DK pts.

$100K Piston: Allmendinger, Kurt Busch, Hamlin, Logano, Ragan, Truex Jr.* 481.50 DK pts. Min cash: 325.00 DK pts.

(*)= Drivers discussed heavily in the chat due to inspection failure

On to Texas

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 334 laps will be run and 83.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 294 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 147 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Races at Texas normally have one major dominator (100+ laps led), a minor dominator (70-90 laps led) and then a few other drivers that will lead 10 to 40 laps. Besides two dominators, we are also going to want to focus on drivers we think can finish in the top 10. Passing is not incredibly difficult at Texas and when fast cars start in the rear, they don't generally have a problem making their way up front. Unfortunately, we do not have any free squares this week. Therefore, we will want to find drivers that will finish well even if they may not pick up too many spots. Historically, the perfect lineup usually has one low priced driver that may not crack the top 25 but gains 3-5 spots and provides enough salary relief to fit in some higher priced drivers. In summary, we are looking for 2 dominators (at least one of which will come from the top 3), 3 drivers that will finish in the top 10 and one punt that will pick up a few spots but doesn't have to get too far forward.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 85 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 164 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martinsville Review:

• Kyle Busch (86.00 DK pts): Started on the pole, led 100 laps and finished 4th. Unfortunately, that was not enough to land him in any winning lineup.

• Brad Keselowski (66.75 DK pts): Started 7th, led 41 laps and added 31 fastest laps but also was not able to land himself in any winning lineup.

Texas Picks:

Kevin Harvick ($11,700 DK, $13,500 FD)

This is another weekend where you can make a case for any of the Big 3 but I am going to build around Harvick and try to fit in the other 2 if I can. I believe Harvick has the best chance to be the major dominator and has led at least 38 laps in each of the last 3 races at Texas. He also has eight consecutive top 10 finishes here with six top 4's and has been in the perfect lineup in each of the last 2 races here. The Fords are fast this weekend and his entire team is starting in the top 7, so they should be able to work together to stay up front. His pit crew puts him in perpetual danger but if they have at least an average race, he should be in good shape this weekend.

Chase Elliott ($9,700 DK, $12,200 FD)

I don't know what it is about Texas, but Elliott is terrible at qualifying here. He is starting 16th on Sunday (which is the third highest he has ever qualified in six tries) but has never finished worse than 11th. He has six top-12 finishes this season at 1.5 mile tracks and I think he finishes in the top 10 pretty easily, with a ceiling of top 5.

Tournament Targets

Martinsville Review:

• Erik Jones (13.50 DK pts): Jones couldn't get out of his own way, having trouble on several occasions and should be happy he only lost 5 spots.

• Paul Menard (35.00 DK pts): Started 35th but only picked up 13 spots, which wasn't enough to pay off his salary or justify his ownership.

• AJ Allmendinger (32.50 DK pts): Allmendinger only picked up one spot putting a dent in his Martinsville history.

Texas Picks:

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,100 DK , $12,500 FD)

The second member of the Big 3 makes for an excellent tournament pick. He costs $1,100 less than Kyle Busch and starts three spots further back. I would give him about an equal chance to Busch to be a dominator but this is a week where we could use the extra salary and place differential points. Did I mention that Truex has been an absolute animal at 1.5 mile tracks this year? He has nine top 11 finishes in 12 races at similar tracks this year (the lone poor finish came when he got into an accident at Texas in April). And he has led at least 49 laps in four of the last five races at Texas, including 2 races where he led 100+. In cash, you may want to consider rostering a combination of 2 of the Big 3...you know my choices.

Jamie McMurray ($7,100 DK , $8,700 FD)

McMurray has been sneaky good at Texas with a top 20 finish in each of his last eight races here with five top 10's. He also has had positive place differential in five of those eight races including both races that he started in the 20's. I think McMurray is a lock for a top 15 with top 10 upside.

Ryan Blaney ($8,700 DK , $10,800 FD)

Blaney is starting on the pole and he is fast. He is no stranger to qualifying well, but finishing races can be his issue, so he does carry a significant amount of risk. He got to the front once in his 7 races at Texas and was able to lead 148 laps. While I am not expecting a repeat performance, 70 laps led and a top 10 finish should be enough to land him in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Bin

Martinsville Review:

• Landon Cassill (12.00 DK pts): Started 32nd, finished 32nd with no fast laps...blah.

• Cole Whitt (24.00 DK pts): Whitt was only able to pick up 4 spots but he did help MRF973 take 3rd in the Rainbow Warrior so that's a win in my book.

Texas Picks

Sub $5,500- Matt DiBenedetto ($5,300 DK, $4,500 FD)

Surprise, Surprise, Matt DiBenedetto appears in this section of the newsletter. This range is always difficult to sort through and DiBenedetto actually starts the second furthest forward of the group but I think he has the highest ceiling. He has five top-25 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks including a finish of 16th this April at Texas.

Sub $5,000- Ross Chastain ($4,800 DK, $4,000 FD)

There were two options in this range I considered: Chastain and Sorenson. It took me about 6 seconds to realize that Sorenson is a terrible play (he hasn't finished better than 31st in 9 years) and Chastain is at least interesting. His Xfinity history here is respectable but his Cup car is terrible. He was able to finish 18th here in April but take that result with a grain of salt because there were an insane amount of cars that got themselves into trouble that race.

Other Drivers To Consider

Martinsville Review

• Ryan Newman (53.00 DK pts): Qualified 16, finished 8th with 18 fastest laps. He was in the perfect and several winning lineups.

• Denny Hamlin. (88.75 DK pts): He was my off the board dominator pick that didn't lead too many laps but 76 fastest laps helped him land in the perfect and every winning lineup.

• Clint Bowyer (10.25 DK pts): Bowyer was having a serviceable race until her spun late.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Texas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Joey Logano ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Jimmie Johnson ($8,500 DK, $9,600 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martinsville Review:

• Kevin Harvick (40.50 DK pts): Harvick finished in the top 10 but didn't come anywhere close to paying off his salary

Texas Pick

William Byron ($5,800 DK, $7,100)

We are starving for value this weekend and I was looking for any reason to believe Byron can hold on to a top 10 finish but there is no way. He does have a 10th place finish at Texas in April but that was his only finish better than 18th this entire year at a 1.5 mile track. There is a very good chance he goes negative.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the AAA Texas 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!