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NASCAR First Data 500 🏁

NASCAR starts the round of 8 in Martinsville Speedway located in Ridgeway, VA for the First Data 500. Martinsville is the shortest track on the NASCAR circuit, measuring 0.526 miles and is also known as a flat track because there is very little banking on the turns.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Ragan, Logano, Bowman, Larson, Elliott, Austin Dillon 344 DK pts.

$30K Chrome Horn: Blaney, DiBenedetto, Austin Dillon, Elliott, Keselowski, Logano 334.25 DK pts Min cash: 249.50 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Bowman, Austin Dillon, Elliott, Larson, Logano, Wallace 328.25 DK pts. Min cash: 254.75 DK pts.

$100K Track Record: Blaney, DiBenedetto, Elliott, Larson, Logano, Ragan 331.00 DK pts. Min cash: 251.50 DK pts.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 227 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 113.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Martinsville is one of the few tracks where three dominators are in play. Three of the last five races here have had three drivers lead between 92-215 laps. The only two races that had fewer than three dominators were both absolutely crushed by Kyle Busch (he lead 274 and 352 by himself, not leaving too many laps for other drivers). Every driver except one that led 92 laps or more have been in the perfect lineup in the last 4 races, regardless of finishing position. Starting position will not help us find the major dominator. The last four major dominators started 9,14,10 and 17. Most of the dominators have started in the top 10 however, as well as the race winner, so this is one of the few weeks we are going to want to front load our lineups. We will be looking to roster three to four drivers starting in the top 20, focusing specifically on drivers we think can lead laps. Since we are going so top heavy, we are going to need at least two drivers priced $6,500 or below. They don't have to make major moves forward, they just need to turn in a solid race, preferably a top 25.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps.

The following recommendations are based on the unofficial starting lineup, they are subject to change if anything major happens during final inspection on Sunday morning. For any breaking news, check out the chat.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kansas Review:

• Kevin Harvick (58.00 DK pts): Not a terrible showing from Harvick, leading 76 laps with 34 fastest laps. He was not the major dominator (Logano) and didn't win (Elliott) so he wasn't in any of the winning lineups

• Kurt Busch (19.00 DK pts): Lost 7 spots, couldn't really get going.

Martinsville Picks:

Kyle Busch ($11,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

There is no reason to overthink this one this week, Kyle Busch is an absolute animal at Martinsville with two wins, five top 5's and an insane 837 laps led in the last 5 races. Busch must lead at least 100 laps and finish in the top 10 to pay off his salary but be is starting on the pole and has a great car on long runs, so he should be able to provide a nice floor for us. The one thing that may cause concern for us is that Busch's most dominant races have come when he has started further back. He doesn't have a great history when he has started in the top 5.

Brad Keselowski ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Keselowski has four top 5's (including a win) in the last five races here and has led more than 100 laps in two of those races. Keselowski had top 6 single lap speeds as well as 10 lap averages in both practices and I like his chance to make it up front and lead a good portion of the race on Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Kansas Review:

• Kyle Larson (73.00 DK pts): Started in the rear, picked up 24 places and finished 3rd with 16 fastest laps. He surprisingly was not in the perfect lineup but was in every winning lineup.

• Ryan Blaney (47.75 DK pts): Blaney was my surprise dominator pick that panned out due to his 23 fastest laps, not his 9 laps led. He was in several winning lineups.

• Michael McDowell (18.50 DK pts): McDowell was another high risk driver that did not pan out, losing 3 spots and finishing 27th

Martinsville Picks:

Erik Jones ($8,700 DK , $9,700 FD)

Jones does not have the best history here but has a fast car this weekend. Jones has never finished worse than 26th in his three races here but has also never started worse than 15th. I like his chances at a top 15 with a top 10 being his ceiling. I think Chase Elliott will be a popular play this weekend and Jones may be a nice pivot.

Paul Menard ($7,700 DK , $7,100 FD)

Martinsville is not one of Menard's best tracks but he is almost a must play in cash since he is starting 39th. He has top 24 10-lap average times in both practices, which is not incredible but he should easily be the best car starting anywhere near him. A case can be made for fading him in GPPs because he does not have top 10 upside and will be heavily owned, but in cash, he is pretty much a lock and load play because he will hit value as long as he doesn't make any unforced errors.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,200 DK , $7,700 FD)

I won't say this truly qualifies as a risky pick but he does carry significant risk starting 17th. Martinsville is easily one of Allmendinger's best tracks, logging four top 10's in the last 5 and eight top 11's in his last 11. He has great single lap speeds but I wish his 10 lap averages were better. Overall, I think he is a solid play.

Bargain Bin

Kansas Review:

• Matt DiBenedetto (31.00 DK pts): DiBenedetto didn't pull off a top 20 but was able to finish 23rd and that was enough to land him in two winning lineups but not the perfect lineup.

• No driver under $5,000 paid off their salary, let alone made a winning lineup.

Martinsville Picks

Sub $5,500- Landon Cassill ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD)

This is pretty much a "hey at least he can't lose you points" pick. This range isn't the best and I will try to avoid it. We may need to pick a driver in this range and this is pretty much a floor play.

Sub $5,000- Cole Whitt ($5,000 DK, $4,000 FD)

I have a soft spot for Cole Whitt and try to play him any chance I get. He has not finished worse than 30th in his last 8 races here but has a high finish of 18th, so he provides a solid floor and an above average ceiling for this price range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Kansas Review

• Paul Menard (-0.50 DK pts): Ran as high as 3rd but finished 32nd and completely disappointed.

• Martin Truex Jr. (47.50 DK pts): Picked up 7 spots and finished in the top 10 but didn't lead any laps.

• Clint Bowyer (32.00 DK pts): Only picked up 1 spot and that wasn't enough.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Newman ($7,100 DK, $9,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($8,500 DK, $12,200 FD)

Clint Bowyer ($9,600 DK, $10,700 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kansas Review:

• Daniel Suarez (6.50 DK pts): Didn't go negative but was essentially a lineup killer. Suarez started 8th, finished 24th and only had 8 fastest laps.

Martinsville Pick

Kevin Harvick ($12,500 DK, $13,000)

Harvick is the most expensive driver this weekend but has not led more than 100 laps in his last 7 races at Martinsville and hasn't finished better than 5th in his last 14. He will need to post a massive score to be in the perfect lineup and I can't see it happening.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the First Data 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!