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This week, we go out to the Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI for the NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400. Michigan Speedway is a 2-mile D shaped oval which is similar to Autoclub Speedway in California. The track races like most other 1.5 mile tracks but since it is 0.5 miles longer, we should avoid drivers with low end equipment because they just can't keep up. Due to rain on Saturday, the second practice was shortened and the final practice was canceled but the race should go off without a hitch on Sunday.

Before we get into Sunday's race, let's address the elephant in the room. My fade of the week ended up being the highest scoring driver and in all of the winning lineups, and I apologize for that. Harvick led for 89 laps and finished 4th while Martin Truex Jr. captured the lead due to a caution on the 140th lap and never looked back.

Last week's winning lineups:

$250K Piston: Almirola, Harvick, Kenseth, Menard, Ragan, Truex Jr. 334.5 pts. Min cash: 260.25 pts.

$75K Slingshot: Almirola Harvick, Menard, Ragan, Stenhouse Jr, Truex Jr. 329.5 pts. Min cash: 253.25 pts.

$25K Happy Hour: Almirola, Harvick, Kenseth, Menard, Ragan, Truex Jr. 334.5 pts. Min cash: 250.5 pts.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

1. Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (unless overtime)

2. Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost

3. Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (about 140 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 70 possible points). DO NOT EVER TRY TO PREDICT THESE, they are incredibly hard to predict, so just know they are scored but are subject to many in-race variables.

4. Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points and for each position gained another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6...) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction

It is important to note that not every race runs the same amount of laps, thus not every race should be attacked the same way. Four of the last 5 races at Michigan have been dominated by one driver and each time it happened to be the driver starting in first. In two of those races a second driver was able to lead at least 50 laps and would qualify as a second dominator. For this race we are looking to play two studs, preferably starting in the top 10, who we think will dominate and then fill the rest of the lineup out with place differential drivers.

There is also an incredibly low chance of finishing more than 10 laps behind the leader this week (due to car trouble/accidents/just being bad). In the 5 of the last 6 races, about 3 cars finished more than 10 laps back per race and in one race there were 9. Even though the true DNF race is low, there were many drivers who finished several laps down and they tended to be the low end drivers of the field. Therefore we need to try to avoid the super-cheap drivers who simply can't hang with the big dogs.

In the last 4 races here, only 2 drivers priced under $6000 (Buescher $5900 and Ragan $5700) made it into the winning lineup but salaries were much flatter. I still think we need to avoid dipping too far under the $6000 range.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Pocono Review:

• Kyle Busch (54.7 DK pts): ran top 5 most of the race and finally got the lead at lap 129 but a debris caution at lap 139 dropped him to 4th and he wasn't able to catch Truex.

• Brad Keselowski (63 DK pts): started 17th finished 5th with 10 laps led, all around solid performance but did not appear in any winning lineups

Kevin Harvick ($12,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Harvick is the most expensive driver again this week, and for good reason. He only has one win here (2010) but has 5 second place finishes in the last 10 races at Michigan. He led the first two rounds of qualifying then played it safe during the final round and it cost him the pole. I think he should get to the front pretty quickly and will be able to dominate this weekend. He has the car to beat, posting the fastest single lap and 10 lap average times during the second practice.

Top Tournament Targets

Pocono Review:

• Erik Jones (11 DK pts): In this section last week, we discussed playing the chalk and pivoting. In Pocono, the chalk hit big time and Aric Almirola was in all the winning lineups and Jones had himself a hell of a race until he was hit from behind during the restart at lap 150. Jones was on his way to a 40+ point day until the accident.

• Matt Kenseth (44 DK pts): Kenseth ended up being in the winning lineup of both the Piston and Happy Hour. By no means was he the safest play, but a combination of low ownership in DK and good strategy on the track paid off.

• Daniel Suarez (15.5 DK pts): As the weekend went on, I fell in love with this play and tried to fit him into any lineup I could. He ended up fighting for a top 20 most of the race but took damage during a restart at lap 129 and couldn't recover.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK , $7,500 FD)

Bowman doesn't have the best history here but has been outperforming his track history all season. He finished 13th at Auto Club earlier this season and has a faster car than the majority of cars that qualified around him. A finish of 13th would get him 39 points and that could be enough to get him him the winning lineup.

Kasey Kahne ($6,600 DK , $7,700 FD)

In a week that we need to avoid the low end drivers, we need to find value somewhere. Kahne has not blown anyone's socks off this year but has been fairly reliable this season. His poor results here last season combined with a tough weekend at Pocono should keep his owner low even though he has 7 top 16's in his last 9 races at Michigan.

Paul Menard ($6,800 DK , $7,900 FD)

If Menard qualified in the low 20's he would be a lock, but starting 15th brings along some extra risk, shifting him to a tournament play. He has gained place differential in 8 of his last 9 races at Michigan but hasn't finished better than 12th in his last 5 races. A finish of 10th would give him 39 DK points so he has his work cut out for him.

Bargain Bin

• Ty Dillon (27 DK points): Finished 23rd and scored just about well enough to pay off his salary

• Gray Gaulding (18 DK points): Highest scoring driver in the salary range

Ask anyone on the street what stores constitute a bargain bin and you will get a range of answers from TJ Maxx to the Salvation Army. In honor of those fine establishments, I will try to find a driver under $5,500 (TJ Maxx) and under $5,000 (Salvation Army) that will free up some salary so you can go after the big guns.

Landon Cassill ($5,200 DK, $5,000 FD)

Matt DiBenedetto has the fastest car in this range but I prefer Cassill due to starting position. He is actually starting behind slower cars and at worst he wrecks early and scores 0 points and at best his ceiling should be about a 25th finish which whould give him 30 DK points.

Salvation Army Pick.....

Please don't pick anyone in this range this week. The fastest car in this range still ran about 2 seconds slower than the best car in practice. In a race with so few DNFs playing a driver that costs less than $5000 kills your ceiling.

Other Drivers To Consider

Pocono Recap

• Paul Menard (42 DK pts): In all 3 winning lineups

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr (39 DK pts): In the Slingshot winning lineup

• Clint Bowyer (15 DK pts): Running 7th until he missed a shift and fell to 20th with 10 laps to go

Top Driver to Avoid 🚫

Pocono Recap:

• Kevin Harvick (77.75 DK pts): I mentioned it to begin the article but this didn't work out. You didn't need him to cash in GPPs but you definitely needed him to take one down. He was the chalk play along with Aric Almirola and they both came through big time/

Not every driver does well at every track, and not every track is kind to every driver. Each week I will try to find a fairly bold yet reasonable driver to fade.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000 DK, $8,700 FD)

After last weeks's debacle I am playing it a little safer. Ricky is having a nice year but I don't think he has a top 10 car. He needs to not lose one place to retain value but he has never finished higher than 8th. He turned in 20th and 18th fastest times in practice and I am going to roll out a full fade.

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Good luck this week guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @joejets19 if you want a second opinion on any specific driver or just want to chat about NASCAR in general! Follow me on Twitter @joejets19.

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Thanks for reading!