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NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 🏁

After a boring turned eventful restrictor plate race, NACAR returns to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas for the Hollywood Casino 400. This will be a cookie cutter 1.5 mile D-shaped oval, so we should be able to get a good idea of how the cars will perform using practice times (single and 10 lap) while also taking driver history and playoff scenarios into consideration. This will be another elimination race for the NACAR playoffs, with a field of 12 being cut down to 8. Only two drivers are safe for now and 4 drivers are in must-win scenarios, so this should be an exciting finish.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Larson (34), Allmendinger (23), Almirola (4), Smith (25), Menard (30), Logano (20) 336 DK pts.

$30K Chrome Horn: Almirola (4), Gase (35), Hamlin (10), Larson (34), Logano (20), Menard (30) 320.75 DK pts Min cash: 221.00 DK pts.

$18K Mini-MAX: Allmendinger (23), Bayne (24), Larson (34), Logano (20), Menard (30), Smith (25) 328.25 DK pts. Min cash: 219.50 DK pts.

$100K Track Record: Allmendinger (23), Gaughan (28), Larson (24), Logano (20), Menard (30), Stenhouse Jr. (12) 331.00 DK pts.  Min cash: 226.50 DK pts.

On to Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 227 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 113.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

The more research I did for this weekend, the more I realized this has the potential to be a great race. Cookie cutter tracks tend to produce boring races but the last three at Kansas have had more than 13 lead changes in each. They have also had 13 or more drivers finishing more than 5 laps down, mostly due to accidents and car troubles. We usually see one major dominator (leading between 100-115 laps) and one minor dominator (leading 70-90 laps), either of which comes from the driver starting on the pole. Passing isn't impossible at Kansas, with at least 1 driver starting in the mid 30's finding themselves in the perfect lineup in each of the last four races here. Drivers starting in the 20's can also pull off top 10 finishes, so we can look throughout the field for our place differential plays. Inferior race cars do not fair well at Kansas, despite the high accident rate recently, with no drivers priced under $5,000 in any of the previous four perfect lineups. While Alex Bowman is technically the only driver that needs a win to advance in the playoffs, Keselowski, Larson and Blaney are all below the cut line and will be gunning for first. In summary, we are going to want lineups with 2 dominators (one of which will probably start on the front row), and 4 place differential/finishing position drivers (one to two starting between 10-20 and two to three starting 20+).

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Talladega Review:

• Paul Menard (57.00 DK pts): Menard started 30th, finished 9th and was in every winning lineup as well as the perfect lineup. He had some car trouble early but was able to power through and have a great day.

• Jimmie Johnson (28.00 DK pts): Survived the entire race and finished 21st but wasn't able to move too far forward.

Kansas Picks: 

Kevin Harvick ($12,300 DK, $14,200 FD)

The Big 3 have completely dominated at Kansas, winning each of the last 5 races (Harvick x2, Truex x2, Busch x1) and I expect that to continue this weekend. Harvick has the best driver rating here over the last 5 races and the second best driver rating at 1.5 mile tracks over the last 33 (behind Truex Jr.) Harvick's single lap times have been terrible but his 10 lap averages have been towards the top, and historically, he has been able to win races here even when practicing poorly. The Fords have been incredibly fast this weekend, he just has to figure out a way to pass the one starting in front of him.

Kurt Busch ($8,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

Kurt Busch is having a great season, with six top 10 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks. He also has five top 8's in the last 7 races at Kansas Speedway. He is starting 11th but has top 8 single lap and 10 lap average times in two of the three practices. I like him as a high floor, high ceiling option, possibly not a dominator but a finishing position play with dominator potential.

Tournament Targets

Talladega Review:

• Joey Logano (56.00 DK pts): Logano started 20th, finished 5th and had 4 fastest laps. He was in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

• Kyle Busch (4.25 DK pts): Kyle got caught in a late wreck and finished 26th, losing 17 spots.

• David Ragan (-18.00 DK pts): My high risk play blew up in our faces. He was low owned but he hit his floor, not his ceiling.

Kansas Picks:

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK , $12,000 FD)

Larson qualified and will be scored from 27th but will have to start at the rear of the field on Sunday due to a car change. He has shown in the past that he can make a run from back here, leading 101 laps when starting 22nd in May. Larson is incredibly expensive, so this will be a risky play but if he can lead some laps, he could easily be the highest scoring driver.

Ryan Blaney ($8,700 DK , $11,500 FD)

Blaney is starting 4th and needs to make something happen to keep his season alive. He is no stranger to the front of the field at Kansas, leading 54 laps when starting second in May 2018 and leading 83 laps when starting first in May 2017. He is a boom or bust play of sorts because if he can't get around the three Fords in front of him, he will most likely not end up in the winning lineup.

Michael McDowell  ($5,600 DK , $5,000 FD)

McDowell is my risky pick of the week. He is starting 24th but has three top 20's in the last three races at Kansas and was in the perfect lineup in two of those three contests. He is starting further forward than he usually does, so his floor is lower than we would like but a top 15 would pay off his salary easily.

Bargain Bin

Dover Review:

• Brendan Gaughan (49.25 DK pts): Gaughan started 28th, finished 12th and even led a lap. He was not in the perfect lineup but was able to help someone win the Big One.

• Corey Lajoie (20.000 DK pts): He picked up 8 spots, wasn't in any winning lineup but almost hit value.

Talladega Picks

Sub $5,500- Matt DiBenedetto ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD)

I recommend DiBenedetto a lot because he has better equipment than a lot of the drivers in his price range, and when he is in a good starting position, he's the type of driver you can feel comfortable rostering. He is coming off of consecutive 22nd place finishes. A top 20 would pay off his salary and that is just about his ceiling.

Sub $5,000- Fade

We are going to be looking for salary relief this week but we should probably avoid this range. All of the drivers qualified right around where they practiced and BJ McLeod is the closest thing to a playable driver but I still wouldn't feel great about it.

Other Drivers To Consider

Talladega Review

• Kyle Larson (60.00 DK pts): Chalky and paid off. He was in every winning and the perfect lineup

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (51.50 DK pts): Another driver that was talked up a ton and he paid off two weeks in a row, not in the perfect lineup but in winning lineups.

• Brad Keselowski (17.25 DK pts): Was winning the race late until he got into some trouble he couldn't recover from.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Paul Menard ($7,200 DK, $7,600 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,800 DK, $13,400 FD)

Clint Bowyer ($9,600 DK, $10,700 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Talladega Review:

• Clint Bowyer (45.00 DK pts): Another week where the fade of the week didn't blow up but also wasn't in any winning lineups.

Kansas Pick

Daniel Suarez  ($7,900 DK, $8,500)

Suarez qualified 8th but only has one finish better than 28th in his three races here. His practice times were terrible this weekend also, giving me no confidence in him holding onto a top 10.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Hollywood Casino 400 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!