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NASCAR 1000Bulbs.com 500 🏁

NASCAR returns to Talladega Superspeedway this week for the 1000Bulbs.com 500. This will be the last restrictor plate race of the season and, as we have touched on in previous issues, races at Daytona and Talladega are an entirely different animal.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Harvick, Byron, Stenhouse Jr., Elliot, Austin Dillon, Almirola 415.00 DK pts.

$30K Chrome Horn: Almirola, Austin Dillon, Harvick, Jones, Stenhouse Jr., Suarez 413.75 DK pts Min cash: 301.50 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Harvick, Byron, Stenhouse Jr., Elliot, Austin Dillon, Almirola 415.00 DK pts. Min cash: 305.00 DK pts.

$100K Track Record: Harvick, Byron, Stenhouse Jr., Elliot, Austin Dillon, Almirola 415.00 DK pts. Min cash: 306.25 DK pts.

On to Talladega!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 188 laps will be run and 47 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 155 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 77.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Restrictor plate races have the reputation of being crashfests, where all you need to do is stack cars starting in the rear and collect money. In cash games that is an incredibly good strategy, don't worry about dominators, don't worry about practice times, don't even worry about salary, choose 6 drivers starting 30 or worse and wait for your opponents to make a mistake. The strategy for tournaments is a little more nuanced. There has been a driver starting in the top 10 in the perfect lineup of 4 of the last 5 races at Talladega, including two races with 2 drivers starting in the top 10. Each of the last 5 perfect lineups had at least 1 driver starting 30th or worse, but 3 of those lineups only had one driver starting worse than 30th. None of the previous 5 perfect lineups had any driver starting better than 3rd, and only one driver starting better than 5th made it in there. In summary, for tournaments we want at least one driver starting between 5 and 10, one, maybe two, drivers starting worse than 30th, and then fill out the rest of the lineup with drivers that start in the 20s that we think can survive the madness. For cash games, don't get cute. Roster drivers starting 25th or worse (30th or worse if you want to be super safe) and move on.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 55 laps, Stage 2: 55 laps, Stage 3: 78 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Dover Review:

• Kyle Busch (40.25 DK pts): Started on the pole but only led 21 laps and finished 8th. He was the lowest owned of the big 3, but in the chat I mentioned Harvick had the best car and without him, cashing was tough.

• Jimmie Johnson (-8.00 DK pts): Absolute lineup crusher... his car broke before the race started and he was 10 laps down before he finished his first lap...killer.

Talladega Picks:

Paul Menard ($7,800 DK, $8,800 FD)

Menard has had his share of incidents at Talladega but I love him starting 30th this weekend. He has finished better than 13th in each of his last 7 incident-free races here, and while he is starting further back than he is used to, that will help solidify his floor and hopefully let him avoid any mishaps.

Chris Buescher ($6,400 DK, $7,500 FD)

I told you things are different at restrictor plate races, and using a combination of Menard/Buescher in your core is not something you should do every week. Buescher is starting 26th and hasn't finished worse than 24th in any of his incident-free races. He has gained more than 11 spots in 5 of his 6 races at Talladega and is starting right around where he usually qualifies, so he should be pretty comfortable.

Tournament Targets

Dover Review:

• Kyle Larson (34.50 DK pts): Larson was chalky but too bad he showed up with a different car on Sunday than what he practiced with on Saturday.

• Ty Dillon (17.50 DK pts): Got lapped pretty quickly and only picked up one place.

• Rickie Stenhouse Jr. (55.25 DK pts): This piece of chalk hit, finishing 9th with 7 laps led and 13 fastest laps. He was in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

Talladega Picks:

Joey Logano ($10,700 DK , $12,500 FD)

Joey Logano is a monster at Talladega. He has two wins and a 4th place finish in the last 3 fall races here. And starting 20th, all he needs in a top 10 to pay off his salary. Logano received a hefty price increase but it came on a week we are not really stressed out about salary.

Kyle Busch ($9,400 DK , $10,300 FD)

I am looking for a driver starting between 5-10 and I don't feel comfortable with just about any of them. Busch has two top 5s in the last 5 races at Talladega and that's pretty much all it takes to stand out in this range. His brother Kurt is a restrictor plate specialist of sorts, but I will be avoiding him on the pole. Hopefully Kyle picked up some of his tricks.

David Ragan ($5,700 DK , $5,000 FD)

Kyle Busch may seem like my risky pick of the week, but he fits the blueprint of how we want to build our lineups, so he doesn't count. I am going with David Ragan as my risky pick because his recent Talladega history is great, with three top 10s including a 6th place finish in April. He is starting much further up than he normally does, so his DK floor and ceiling are lower than we would expect, but he should provide a low owned option starting 16th.

Bargain Bin

Dover Review:

• David Ragan (22.5 DK pts): Ragan picked up only 2 places, finishing 24th. Didn't kill us but didn't win us any money.

• Timmy Hill (4 DK pts): Hill was only able to run 35 laps but still outscored Jimmie Johnson.

Talladega Picks

Sub $5,500- Brendan Gaughan ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

I like Gaughan for a couple reasons this weekend. One reason is the entire lack of name recognition should suppress his ownership during a week where everyone starting in the rear will have inflated ownership. Another reason is he is more or less a restrictor plate specialist and was able to lead a few laps in each of the last 2 races here. I know laps led points aren't important but it shows he knows how to get up front.

Sub $5,000- Corey Lajoie ($4,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

Lajoie is starting last but was able to pick up 9 spots in his only race here. In a week that several drivers will go negative, its nice to sure up your floor with at least 1 driver that can't.

Other Drivers To Consider

Dover Review

• Austin Dillon (45.00 DK pts): Finished 7th, was in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

• Matt Kenseth (35.50 DK pts): Picked up 8 spots and 7 fastest laps. He wasn't in the winning lineup but paid off his salary.

• Martin Truex Jr. (26.00 DK pts): Lowest scoring of the big 3.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Talladega that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($8,000 DK, $8,200 FD) Word of caution: he is in a great spot after letting everyone down last week but he loves to blow up when he is chalky.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr, ($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($11,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Dover Review:

• Ryan Blaney (32.50 DK pts): Only lost 3 spots but didn't come anywhere close to paying off his salary. He did better than Jimmie Johnson.

Talladega Pick

Clint Bowyer ($9,200 DK, $10,700)

Bowyer hasn't finished better than 3rd since his win in 2011. I will be fading the front row, but gun to my head, I would prefer to play Kurt Busch on the pole than Bowyer starting second.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the 1000Bulbs.com 500 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!