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NASCAR Gander Outdoors 400 🏁

Welcome to the Monster Mile! This week, NASCAR returns to Dover International Speedway in Dover, DE for the Gander Outdoors 400 (sound familiar? Pocono held the Gander Outdoors 400 in July). Dover is a concrete, 1 mile oval that is known as the Monster Mile. Weather canceled qualifying on Friday and the first practice on Saturday but should clear out by Sunday to give us a clean race.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: McMurray, Hamlin, Newman, DiBenedetto, Blaney, Bowyer 299.75 DK pts.

$35K Chrome Horn: Blaney, DiBenedetto, Hamlin, Harvick, Logano, Smith 283.00 DK pts Min cash: 189.00 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Blaney, Bowman, Kurt Busch, Harvick, Newman, Smith 283.25 DK pts Min cash: 195.00 DK pts.

$125K Track Record: Blaney, Bowyer, Harvick, Smith, Ty Dillon, Newman 275.00 DK pts  Min cash: 186.75 DK pts.

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 370 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 185 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Four hundred laps will provide a significant amount of points for us this weekend and the first thing we are going to look for are dominators. At Dover, there are generally 2 drivers that lead at least 100 laps with one leading closer to 200. The dominator doesn't always start on the pole, but usually one of the drivers starting in the front row will lead a good portion of the race. This week will be particularly difficult because the best drivers are starting up front, so they all have a chance to dominate and they are all expensive. The race winner has also been in 3 of the last 4 perfect lineups even when they weren't the dominator, so we may want to try to find a third driver that we think can win the race but not necessarily dominate. One theme I found in the last 4 perfect lineups is a low cost driver that started up front and stayed there, not gaining a bunch of spots but providing enough salary relief to pay for a stud. The final 2-3 drivers should be drivers that can gain spots. These drivers do not have to make a major jump (7-10 spots will do) or even finish particularly well (a top 22). In summary, we want 2-3 dominators (2 with the winner or 3 dominators), a low priced driver starting up front that will stay up front (those will be hard to come by this week but they are there) and 2 drivers that can finish in the top 22 and pick up more than 7 laps.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 120 laps, Stage 2: 120 laps, Stage 3: 160 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Roval Review:

• Kurt Busch (40.25 DK pts): Started on the pole but only led 7 laps and finished 5th. Busch was able to make 1 winning lineup

• Martin Truex Jr. (36.75 DK pts): Led 5 laps and was about 400 yards away from a victory until he got clipped by Johnson which cost him the race and 13 spots. This was a week of what could have been.

Dover Picks: 

Kyle Busch ($11,800 DK, $14,000 FD)

Kyle Busch has some serious Spring/Fall race splits and I hope to exploit them this weekend. He hasn't dominated at Dover since October of 16 but has 3 top 2's in his last three fall races here. There is no bad pick of the top 3 this week: Busch starts on the pole, Truex has the highest driver rating and second most laps led in the last 5 races at Dover, and Harvick has a win and the third most laps led in the last 5 races. I am going with Busch because I think people will be lower on him than the others and it could provide us with some leverage, but being exposed to all 3 is a good strategy, even playing 2 of the 3 in a lineup is feasible.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,200 DK, $10,400 FD)

Johnson left it all on the track last weekend in an effort to move on in the playoffs. He took the back stretch chicane too fast and spun out, costing him the race and his season. Johnson now gets a chance to wreck havoc with the rest of the drivers remaining at a track that he has a great history. Johnson starts 13th and hasn't had a finish worse than 9th in his last 4 races at Dover, including a win. I think Johnson will show up with a chip on his shoulder and a point to prove.

Tournament Targets

Roval Review:

• Brad Keselowski (18.25 DK pts): Kes was leading the race with 5 laps left but he blew the restart and caused a major wreck in the process. He cost a lot of people an incredible amount of money and I am still kind of sore about it.

• Michael McDowell (26.00 DK pts): Finished right where he started.

• Daniel Hemric (9.00 DK pts): My sleeper pick was paying off but got caught up in Kes's mess, finished 23rd but still not good.

Dover Picks:

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK , $12,600 FD)

With everyone looking up front at the big 3 (or 4), we can look at Larson to provide some relative salary relief with a safer floor. Not every driver starting in the top 4 will be able to pay off their salary by dominating, so we are going to need some drivers to move up, and starting 10th give Larson a chance to gain some points by place differential while still providing a high ceiling. He has the second most laps led in the last 5 races at Dover and he provides a safe floor, high ceiling, salary relief and possible low ownership, which makes him a nice tournament play.

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK , $5,000 FD)

We desperately need salary relief this weekend and I'm determined to keep playing Ty Dillon until he wins me some money. He has gained at least 6 places in each of the last 3 races here and only has one finish worse than 24th here in his career. He almost checks both boxes that we are looking for (7+ spots gained and a finish better than 22) and that is all we can ask for at this price.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.  ($6,000 DK , $7,000 FD)

I stay away from Stenhouse as a general rule because he has a tendency of finding a way to wreck then he's having a good race. He has a negative place differential in 4 of his last 5 races at Dover but that may be due to his good starting position. He is starting 21st on Sunday and has finished in the top 11 the last two times he has started in the 20's (both came in October races to boot).

Bargain Bin

Roval Review:

• My general fade of this price range was working out well until the last few laps. Once the race turned into a wreck fest, the door was opened for DiBenedetto to launch himself into the perfect/winning lineups.

Dover Picks

Sub $5,500- David Ragan ($5,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

We are going to have to pick at least one inexpensive driver this weekend and I think Ragan has the highest ceiling. He is starting the furthest forward, so inherently has the highest risk but he should be worth the risk this weekend.

Sub $5,000- Timmy Hill ($4,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Hill is starting second to last (the driver starting last is not in the player pool) but has the best driver rating of the price range. He will not finish higher than 22nd but can pick up 7 places and is the cheapest driver this weekend.

Other Drivers To Consider

Roval Review

• Chase Elliot (38.00 DK pts): Finished 6th, didn't lead any laps and didn't pay off his salary.

• Chris Buescher (20.00 DK pts): Lost 7 spots.

• Daniel Suarez (19.00 DK pts): Ran a relatively uneventful race, losing 4 spots.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Dover that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Austin Dillon ($6,900 DK, $8,500 FD)

Matt Kenseth ($7,100 DK, $7,400 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Roval Review:

• AJ Allmendinger (32.00 DK pts): Didn't lead any laps but also didn't blow up. He raced hard and fell back quickly but was able to turn in a good finish when he avoided all the other messes.

Dover Pick

Ryan Blaney  ($8,500 DK, $11,000)

Blaney is starting 8th but has never finished better than 8th at Dover. He may be a popular pick due to his good fortune last race but I will be avoiding him. He has just as many bottom 10 finishes as top 10 finishes and I don't think his limited ceiling justifies his lineup crushing floor.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Gander Outdoors 400 CheatSheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!