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NASCAR Bank of America ROVAL 400 🏁

Welcome to the ROVAL! For the first time since 2011, NASCAR is heading to a new track (kinda) for the Bank of America ROVAL 400. The Roval is a 2.28 mile road course featuring 17 turns and 35 feet of elevation change. It is located within Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC and is a hybrid course of sorts, using half of the standard oval and half of a road course created in the infield. If that weren't exciting enough, this is also the elimination race for the first round of the playoffs. While four spots are virtually locked up, the remaining 12 drivers have to race to keep their season alive.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Ragan, Stenhouse Jr., Kyle Busch, Johnson, Truex Jr., Austin Dillon 400.25 DK pts.

$35K Chrome Horn: Kyle Busch, Johnson, Ragan, Stenhouse Jr., Suarez, Truex Jr. 391.25 DK pts Min cash: 306.75 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Kyle Busch, Johnson, Ragan, Stenhouse Jr., Suarez, Truex Jr. 391.25 DK pts Min cash: 310.25 DK pts.

$125K Track Record: Kyle Busch, Johnson, Ragan, Stenhouse Jr., Suarez, Truex Jr. 391.25 DK pts Min cash: 312.75 DK pts.

On to the Roval!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 109 laps will be run and 27.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 95 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 47.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

There is literally 0 history on the course, so dissecting previous perfect lineups will not help us here. To be successful, we are going to have to use our knowledge of Draftkings/Fanduel and each driver's current predicament. We want to focus on drivers that have something to race for but also have shown the ability to finish well at road courses. Since there are relatively few laps being run this weekend (109), dominator points are limited, thus placing more importance on place differential and finishing position. I think finishing position is the key this weekend over place differential because I can see it being incredibly hard to pass at this track. An example of finishing position being more important than place differential would be comparing Erik Jones ($7,400) and Ryan Newman ($7,300). Lets say Newman is able to pick up 10 places and Jones is only able to pick up 3, you would think that Newman would be the better play, but in fact, Jones would end up scoring more points (38) than Newman (35) because he would finish 9th instead of 19th. Now the relative safety of Newman may be more appealing for cash games, but that is a different argument all together (I know Jones is now starting in the rear, after an accident during second practice but the theory holds value). Just because passing is hard doesn't mean some drivers will not move up however, because there is bound to be drivers that miss a turn or two and find themselves plummeting down the field. There may be some crashes and mishaps but I would be shocked if fewer than 36-37 cars finished on the lead lap, so we might want to look at drivers who have shown the ability to use superior fuel strategy or have pit crews less susceptible to pit penalties, to help give us an edge. Overall, I think we are going to need all drivers finishing in the top 10 if we are aiming to be in the winning lineup but can use drivers with higher floors and lower ceilings for cash. We will want at least 1 driver we think will lead at least a decent number of laps and also try to find 1-2 drivers we think can win. The final drivers in our lineup should focus on which drivers can finish the highest, even though they may not pick up that many places.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 25 laps, Stage 3: 59 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Richmond Review:

• Clint Bowyer (57.50 DK pts): Bowyer did not disappoint in any way with his 10th place finish, but he didn't do enough to be in the perfect/winning lineups.

• Martin Truex Jr. (105.25 DK pts): Truex was the major dominator, leading 163 laps with 47 fastest and a 3rd place finish. He was in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

Richmond Picks:

Kurt Busch ($9,000 DK, $11,200 FD)

Kurt Busch starts on the pole and has several things going in his favor. First, he has 9 consecutive top 11's at road courses including 3 top 5's. Second, he is one of the best drivers on the restart, so I can see him leading the entire first stage at least. And third, he has something to race for, Busch currently sits in 8th place in the playoff picture and needs to run a nice clean race to move on.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,100 DK, $13,200 FD)

I am sticking with Martin Truex Jr. as my second building block this weekend. He has the highest driver rating out of all the drivers since February 2016 and has 2 wins in the last 3 road course races. While it might not be too much of a factor this weekend, it also helps that he has been an absolute monster on 1.5 mile tracks this year (which constitutes about half of this course). He is locked in for the next round of the playoffs but still wants to turn in a good race to possibly pick up some playoff points.

Tournament Targets

Richmond Review:

• Brad Keselowski (65.25 DK pts): Kes led 67 laps, had 31 fastest laps but finished 9th, which was not high enough.

• Austin Dillon (60.00 DK pts): Dillon was pretty highly owned due to his price and he absolutely smashed value, leading him to the perfect lineup but not the winning one.

• Daniel Suarez (51.00 DK pts): Suarez started as a sneaky pick but then failed inspection (after the article came out) and became a lock and load no brainer. Even though he was not in the perfect lineup, he was in the winning one.

Roval Picks:

Brad Keselowski ($9,800 DK , $13,200 FD)

I am starting to sound like a broken record, continuously recommending Brad Keslowski, but until he fails us, I will continue to play him at this price. He is currently the 6th highest priced driver and the driver starting the furthest back of that pack, which raises his floor and his ceiling. He was going to be a lock and load play starting 25th, but because of trouble in the final practice, he will not start in the rear after moving to his backup car. Since he and Hamlin are starting from the rear but being scored from 25th and 27th respectively, he may go under-owned and that may make me want him more.

Michael McDowell ($6,100 DK , $7,000 FD)

I originally wrote up Erik Jones in the spot but I think he has a Herculean task ahead of him starting in the rear. Instead, I am going to take a flyer on Michael McDowell starting 20th but showing some speed in practice. He has 4 top 20s in his last 5 road course races and makes for a high ceiling low floor play.

Daniel Hemric ($5,600 DK , $4,000 FD)

Hemric is having a nice season down in XFINITY and I am hoping he gets overlooked. His history may not jump out at you, but he has shown some speed. This is an incredibly high ceiling, low floor play that may set your lineup apart from the pack

Bargain Bin

Richmond Review:

• Michael McDowell (19.00 DK pts): Lost one spot, didn't get the job done.

• Corey LaJoie (11.00 DK pts): Finished where he started but somehow picked up 6 fastest laps. Overall, not a great play.

Roval Picks

This looks to be another week we want to avoid this range. I wanted to say Matt DiBenedetto and Bubba Wallace have the highest ceiling in this range, which may be true, but a 25th place finish really isn't a ceiling and Bubba wrecked himself in practice. You can dip down here if you need to, but barring major car trouble from the front of the field, I cannot see one of these drivers in the winning lineup.

Other Drivers To Consider

Richmond Review

• Jimmie Johnson (56.00 DK pts): Finished 8th with 14 fastest laps. Johnson ended up in the perfect and winning lineup

• Ty Dillon (17.00 DK pts): Only gained 1 spot and didn't pay off his salary.

• Denny Hamlin (25.00 DK pts): Boom or bust play went bust, started 2nd and finished 16th.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Roval that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Chase Elliot ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $6,400 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($8,100 DK, $10,300 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Richmond Review:

• Ryan Blaney (15.75 DK pts): Blaney started 4th and finished 19th. He picked up 10 fasted laps along the way but he he didn't even come close to turning into a useable performance.

Roval Pick

AJ Allmendinger ($7,700 DK, $8,600)

Some people see Allmendinger as a road course specialist but I am going to take a pass. Part of the reason I like Kurt Busch so much this weekend is his world class restart ability. And if Allmending doesn't get past Kurt quickly, I don't think he will at all. He may be decently popular, so this could turn out to be a boom or bust fade.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bank of America ROVAL 400 Cheat Sheet It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!