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NASCAR Federated Auto Parts 400 🏁

This week, NASCAR heads to Richmond International Speedway in Richmond, Virginia for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is a 0.75 mile D shaped oval that is characterized as a short track but it is actually longer than both Martinsville and Bristol, so a driver's history at Richmond should be weighted more heavily than their overall short track history. The starting lineup will not be finalized until pre-race inspections are complete, so it is important to check in on the chat throughout the day for any updates.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Larson, Keselowski, Yeley, Logano, Truex Jr. Smith 425.75 DK pts

$30K Chrome Horn: Allmendinger, Almirola, Keselowski, Larson, Smith, Truex Jr. 238.50 DK pts Min cash: 418.75 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Cassill, Keselowski, Larson, Logano, Smith, Truex Jr. 425.75 DK pts Min cash: 253.25 DK pts.

$100K Track Record: Allmendinger, Keselowski, Larson, Logano, Truex Jr, Yeley 423.25 DK pts Min cash: 248.00 DK pts.

On to Richmond!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 175 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Four hundred laps will be run on Saturday night, which means there will be a ton of dominator points available. At Richmond, there has been at least 1 driver that leads more than 100 laps in each of the last 5 races here. Although Truex got close, there has not been a driver that has led more than 200 laps in that span and there were 2 races where two drivers led more than 100 laps. The driver sitting on the pole is not always a lock to be a dominator, and being the driver with the most laps led does not guarantee a spot in the perfect lineup. The race winner will most definitely be in the perfect lineup, and 66 of the 124 races at Richmond have been won by drivers starting in the top 4. Dominators are more spread out, however, so starting outside the top 10 does not preclude a good driver from getting up front. There is a remarkably low DNF rate, with only about 5 drivers finishing more than 5 laps down per race, which means slow drivers starting in the rear can not depend on picking up a few spots just by surviving. Overall, we are going to want to roster at least 1 driver starting in the top 3, at least 1-2 drivers we think can dominate, and the final 3-4 drivers should be able to pick up at least 10 places or finish in the top 15.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 200 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Joey Logano (56.00 DK pts): Started second, finished 4th with 46 laps led and 13 fastest. Was not the dominator I wanted but ended up in the perfect and 2 winning lineups

• Kevin Harvick (-20.50 DK pts): Harvick was able to get up front to lead 14 laps but ended up blowing a tire, which ended his day very early.

Richmond Picks:

Clint Bowyer ($9,100 DK, $11,500 FD)

Bowyer is having himself the season of a lifetime and I expect it to continue at Richmond. He is starting 25th and has a top 10 in 4 of his last 8 races at Richmond as well as a top 9 in each of his last 5 short track races. It is going to be tough for Bowyer to lead too many laps but there is more than enough time for him to gain enough play differential points to land him in the winning lineup.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,000 DK, $13,200 FD)

Even though Truex doesn't have the best history of finishes here, I think he has the best car in the top 5 and possibly the entire field. He has led at least 121 laps in three of the last 4 races at Richmond but does not have a win here. I think he has the best chance of being the major dominator but I am not thrilled about his ability to finish here, which makes him fairly risky.

Tournament Targets

Las Vegas Review:

• Brad Keselowski (94.75 DK pts): 75 laps led, 46 fastest laps and the win all add up to Kes absolutely crushing in Vegas and landing in the perfect lineup and every winning lineup.

• Trevor Bayne (41.00 DK pts): He was not in any winning lineup but he turned in a nice day, picking up 10 spots and finishing 13th

• Paul Menard (44.00 DK pts): Menard also picked up 10 spots, finished 10th but was not in any winning lineup. He still had a nice day though.

Richmond Picks:

Brad Keselowski ($10,200 DK , $14,000 FD)

Might as well ride the hot hand, especially at a track he runs well at. Last week I liked Keselowski as a place differential play with race winning upside. This week, I think he has some dominator potential. He has one race with 110 laps led in the last 3 but has not qualified this well in 4 races. He is incredibly expensive on FD, so I may not want to play him over there but on DK feel free to fire him up.

Austin Dillon ($6,900 DK , $8,600 FD)

With all of these high priced drivers in good spots, we are going to need salary relief and the first driver I am looking at is Austin Dillon. Dillon has had positive place differential in each of his last 3 races at Richmond and generally finishes around 20th here, which is good enough.

Daniel Suarez ($7,500 DK , $9,200 FD)

My risky tournament pick this week is Daniel Suarez. He is starting 5th, so if he falls at all he can tank a lineup. But with 3 drivers in the top 5 with poor finishing history, all we need him to do is gain one spot to smash value.

Bargain Bin

Las Vegas Review:

• Reed Sorenson (22.00 DK pts): Picked up 9 places but was the lowest scoring driver in the range.

• JJ Yeley (46.00 DK pts): I didn't feel great about him but he crushed, finished 17th and was in the perfect lineup.

Richmond Picks

Sub $5,500- Michael McDowell ($5,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

McDowell has the best car in this range but is also starting the furthest forward. He runs better in the September Richmond race but he still carries some risk. He needs a little help, but I like him for a top 20 with a ceiling of a top 15.

Sub $5,000- Corey LaJoie ($4,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

This is another track where I think this range should be avoided but Lajoie has the best car relative to starting position in this price range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Las Vegas Review

• Kyle Larson (71.00 DK pts): Started 11th, finished 2nd, led 24 and had 28 fastest. In the perfect lineup and several winning lineups

• Aric Almirola (50.00 DK pts): Finished 6th and was in a winning lineup

• Ryan Newman (49.00 DK pts): Picked up 13 spots but wasn't in any winning lineups

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Richmond that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Jimmie Johnson ($7,900 DK, $10,500 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($9,600 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Las Vegas Review:

• Denny Hamlin (-16.75 DK pts): Finished 32nd, wasn't the lowest scoring driver (Thanks Harvick) but still a solid fade.

Richmond Pick

Ryan Blaney ($8,900 DK, $10,200)

Blaney is starting 4th but has never finished better than 18th and it doesn't look like he has a top 10 car this week either.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Federated Auto Parts 400 Cheatsheet! It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat.

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!