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NASCAR South Point 400 🏁

Welcome to the first week of the playoffs! Last week was hectic with no practice and the race running on Monday, even though the contests locked on Sunday. We are in the homestretch and there are only 10 weeks left but this is not the time to let up, this is a very profitable time in the season because most people spend their time on NFL. This week, NASCAR heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, Nevada for the South Point 400. This is the first time NASCAR is running a fall race at Vegas and drivers may have to battle the heat this weekend as well as each other. Vegas is a cookie cutter 1.5 mile D-Shaped oval like Kentucky and Chicagoland.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Menard, Hamlin, Bowyer, McMurray, Jones, Kenseth 331.75 DK pts

$30K Chrome Horn: Bowyer, Harvick, Kenseth, McMurray, Menard, Newman 307.00 DK pts Min cash: 221.50 DK pts.

$15K Mini-MAX: Hamlin, Jones, Kenseth, Keselowski, Menard, Newman 317.25 DK pts Min cash: 227.25 DK pts.

$100K Track Record: Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Hamlin, Kenseth, McMurray, Menard 397.5 DK pts Min cash: 228.00 DK pts.

On to Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 115 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

D-shaped ovals are known for being fairly predictable but there is some uncertainty at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In the last 4 races here, there were: a race with one major dominator and no minor dominators, a race with one major and one minor dominator, a race with no major dominators but 5 drivers that led between 24 and 76 laps, and a race with one major dominator and 2 drivers that led 45 laps. There is a high likelihood there will be at least 1 major dominator but that is not guaranteed, and there is also a good chance that the drivers starting on the front row will lead at least a few laps. There are some heavy hitters starting behind them so there is a good chance there will be a few lead changes. So you will want to start a couple of drivers starting in the top 10. When fast cars start towards the back at Vegas, they can move forward. The last two perfect lineups had 3 drivers starting 20th or lower that were able to finish better than 18th. There are only about 5 drivers per race that leave the race early because of a crash/car trouble, so the low priced drivers don't have a high ceiling. In conclusion, we want to take two stabs at dominator, 3 drivers starting 20th or worse that we think can finish top 15, and 1 driver that starts in the teens that can pull off a top 10 that can also lead some laps. Pricing seems steep this week but there are some soft spots we can exploit, which means there should be some unique lineups. In cash, I am not against rostering a sub-$5,500 in order to lock up a dominator you like but it's all about what you are playing for. The perfect lineup may not have any of those drivers but you can still be profitable rostering them.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Indy Review:

• Kyle Busch (42.25 DK pts): A disappointing weekend but didn't kill you. Needed him to dominate to pay off but he lost the lead at the competition caution and was out of the picture for the rest of the race.

• Ryan Newman (41.50 DK pts): Newman had himself a nice day finishing 10th. He was not in the perfect lineup but was in 2 winning lineups.

Las Vegas Picks:

Joey Logano ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD)

This choice is about price just as much as it is about starting position. Logano is easily a $9,500+ driver and we are getting him at a discount in a week that we need to save as much money as we can. Going back to October of 2017, Logano only has one finish outside of the top 10. And at Vegas, he has the 3rd highest driver rating and has led the 4th most laps in the last 4 races. He is starting second but seems to have a better car than Erik Jones, so I could see him dominating the early portion of the race.

Kevin Harvick ($11,700 DK, $14,200 FD)

Harvick is my pick to be the major dominator in the race. He is starting 5th behind Logan, Hamlin and Kyle Busch, but I believe he has the car that can get up front. Harvick has two wins in the last 4 races at Vegas (including this March) and 3 wins and 4 top 5's at intermediate tracks this season. In an ideal world, Logano leads until Harvick overtakes him and dominates the rest of the race.

Tournament Targets

Indy Review:

• Jimmie Johnson (26.00 DK pts): I am off of Johnson until further notice. We needed there to be some pressure on Johnson to spur on a useable performance, instead he turned in a ho-hum 16th.

• Matt Kenseth (52.25 DK pts): Matt Kenseth, on the other hand, raced his ass off and moved all the way up to 12th and even led 5 laps. He was in the perfect lineup and every winning lineup.

• Chris Buescher (17.00 DK pts): Buescher lost 2 spots and didn't make any noise.

Vegas Picks:

Brad Keselowski ($9,600 DK , $12,600 FD)

What does Kes need to do to get some respect? He has 2 wins in the last 2 races but is still cheaper than Truex, Larson and Hamlin. One note of caution is that those wins were because of strategy and not domination, but luckily for us, we don't need him to dominate. Starting 13th, all we need is a top 5 for him to pay off his salary. At Vegas, Keselowski has 6 straight top 7's including a win.

Trevor Bayne ($6,400 DK , $6,700 FD)

We need drivers starting in the 20's that can move up, but because of the way qualifying shook out, there are not any obvious plays this week. Bayne is not the safest but has a surprisingly high ceiling, scoring a high finish of 9 with his old team and a 13th when driving the 6.

Paul Menard ($7,400 DK , $8,100 FD)

Menard is starting 20th and is the second most expensive he has been this season. He has positive place differential in 7 of his last 9 races here and 4 top 10's. Menard is a decently safe play with some nice upside.

Bargain Bin

Indy Review:

• Matt DiBenedetto (3.00 DK pts): Only ran 89 laps, didn't finish last but he was the lowest scoring driver in the range.

• BJ McLeod (24.00 DK pts): Smacked into Bubba Wallace for no reason but was able to return to the race and turn in a serviceable performance.

Brickyard Picks

Sub $5,500- Reed Sorenson ($5,000 DK, $4,500 FD)

You don't normally find the driver starting 40th this expensive but that is the case this week. He is strictly a floor play because he cannot lose you points and he has a faster car than some of the drivers in front of him. He does not have a super high ceiling, but with some luck, he could pull off a top 30.

Sub $5,000- JJ Yeley ($4,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

Again, this is not a pick I am in love with but he is one of the few drivers in this range that has a car slightly faster than his starting position.

Other Drivers To Consider

Indy Review

• Kevin Harvick (56.50 DK pts): Didn't dominate but did enough to be in a winning lineup.

• Joey Logano (23.00 DK pts): Couldn't hold on to a top 10 or pay off his salary.

• Paul Menard (46.00 DK pts): Finished 9th, was in every winning lineup and the perfect lineup.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,700 DK, $12,400 FD)

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK, $10,000 FD)

Ryan Newman ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Indy Review:

• Kurt Busch (46.75 DK pts): Another rough week for the fade. He wasn't in the perfect lineup but was in a winning lineup.

Las Vegas Pick

Denny Hamlin ($10,400 DK, $11,300)

Hamlin is starting 3rd and hasn't finished better than 5th since 2007. He needs to lead some laps to pay off his salary but he is sandwiched in between faster cars and I don't see how he gets it done.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the South Point 400 Cheatsheet! It is loaded with comments this week, but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat or on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!