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NASCAR Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard🏁

This week, NASCAR heads to Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis, Indiana for the Big Machine Vodka 400. This is the last race of the regular season and there are still a handful of playoff spots up for grabs, so there will be some hard racing. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a 2.5 mile rectangular flat track that is compared mostly to Pocono. There is major weather in the forecast that has thrown a wrench into just about everything (more on that later) and it is important to note that the race will now start at 1pm, not at it's originally scheduled time.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Keselowski, Ty Dillon, Logano, McMurray, Buescher, Larson 407.50 DK pts

$100K Chrome Horn: Buescher, Keselowski, Larson, Logano, McDowell, McMurray 406.00 DK pts Min cash: 248.25 DK pts.

$20K Happy Hour: Buescher, Keselowski, Larson, Logano, McDowell, McMurray 406.00 DK pts Min cash: 248.50 DK pts.

$230K Piston: Austin Dillon, Ty Dillon, Erik Jones, Keselowski, Larson, McMurray 397.5 DK pts  Min cash: 247.75 DK pts.

On to the Brickyard!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run and 40 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 130 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 65 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Mother nature has made this race very interesting, and it hasn't even started yet. Both practice sessions and qualifying were rained out on Saturday, so the starting lineup was set by owners' points and we will be going into this race just about blind. There is rain in the forecast for Sunday as well, so there is a chance it may get pushed back to Monday. Now what does all this mean for DFS purposes??? A whole lot of uncertainty and variance. While the race is scheduled to run only 160 laps, cautions usually extend it to as many as 170 laps but rain will threaten to shorten it to under 100. Either way, place differential/finishing position points are more abundant than domination points. There has been only one major dominator in each of the last 4 races (leading at least 75 laps) and the other lap leaders don't normally lead more than 30. In the last 3 races, there have been a decent amount of accidents, including a major one last year. So the low priced drivers are firmly in play because they can gain as many as 10-12 places just by staying clean, even if they don't have enough speed to keep up. There are not any obvious cash plays starting in the back like most weeks, so lineups may be more diverse than usual. And with no practice times, we are going to operate on game theory and feel. We will want to start our lineups off with a stud starting up front, looking for the major dominator and then fill in rest of our lineups with drivers we think can pick up places as well as finish in the top 10 or 15. If you want to take two cracks at nailing the dominator, you should be able to by rostering a very low priced driver and you will still have a ton of options.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 50 laps, Stage 2: 50 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Darlington Review:

• Denny Hamlin (32.25 DK pts): Hamlin started on the pole and we needed him to lead a ton of laps...he was able to give us 11 before Larson was able to catch up to him with his rocket ship. A top 10 finish was not enough to salvage his day.

• Kevin Harvick (65.00 DK pts): Harvick was slightly higher owned than Hamlin and didn't disappoint nearly as much, but he wasn't able to dominate. In the chat, we discussed why he was a better option than Kyle Busch, but this was pretty much a floor race for him. He battled Truex for the lead for a while but Larson blew by both of them in the end.

Indy Picks: 

Kyle Busch ($11,700 DK, $14,000 FD)

This is at least my 3rd week in a row recommending the driver starting on the pole, but Busch's history here speaks for itself. He has 2 wins here in the last 4 races and has led 87, 149 and 19 laps in the last 3 races respectively. He did end up finishing 34th last race after a crash, but that was after leading 87 laps. While there is some risk here because he needs to lead a nice chunk of laps to pay off his salary, he is starting in the best position, has the best pit stall, and is the most likely driver to dominate.

Ryan Newman ($7,200 DK, $9,000 FD)

Newman has a nice history with a win, a 3rd and a 7th in his last 6 races here, but this pick is all about the playoffs. Newman is no longer able to qualify for the playoffs via points and needs the win. Of the drivers in that predicament, he has the safest floor and possibly the highest ceiling because he has won here before. At a track that has seen drivers like Jamie McMurray and Kasey Kahne win, there is always a chance that Newman can pull it off.

Tournament Targets

Darlington Review:

• Jimmie Johnson (-7.50 DK pts): Johnson started in the rear and was scored from 20th, made his way as high as 14th but his fuel pump blew on the 227th lap and ended his day.

• Kasey Kahne (25.50 DK pts): Kahne got lapped pretty early, was able to pick up a few spots but not enough to pay off his salary. He suffered from dehydration for most of the race and is actually sitting this week out because of it.

• Auston Dillon (31.50 DK pts): Dillon finished 16th, only picking up 2 spots but that was enough to land him in the winning lineup of the Piston.

Indy Picks:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,200 DK , $9,200 FD)

Speaking of playoff plays, Johnson is a driver on the other side of the bubble. He has not clinched a playoff spot yet and can still be eliminated if a first time driver wins and Alex Bowman outscores him by 19 points. Johnson was originally going to be my boom or bust play because he has the pedigree to pull off a top 5 but seems to keep finding ways to disappoint. However, due to his playoff situation, I think he may race a little safer, and a top 7 is all he will need to pay off salary.

Matt Kenseth ($7,000 DK , $8,200 FD)

Kenseth may not be the smash play that he seems on paper, but he will provide a nice floor with a significant ceiling. Most people will see Kenseth's price history and think he will be a lock for a top 5 but you have to remember that was in a much better car. Starting 29th, Kenseth can rack up some serious play differential points and I like him for a top 20 with a ceiling of a top 15.

Chris Buescher  ($6,500 DK , $6,700 FD)

Buescher has been an absolute beast in his two races here with finishes of 9 and 14. I always feel like drivers of his caliber starting this far forward are risky because one wrong move and your day is over. He is the most expensive he has been all season, so that may lower his ownership but he is cheaper than Austin Dillon, William Byron and Paul Menard while also starting further back.

Bargain Bin

Darlington Review:

• Ty Dillon (31.50 DK pts): Dillon finished 21st, picking up 7 spots and adding 3 fastest laps for good measure. Ty raced well enough to land himself in the perfect lineup as well as the winning lineup of the Piston.

• Jeffrey Earnhardt (16.00 DK pts): Earnhardt was the highest owned driver in this range but not the highest scoring or best value. He had the highest ceiling but was not able to get there.

Brickyard Picks

Sub $5,500- Matt DiBenedetto ($5,400 DK, $5,000 FD)

Another driver that people may overreact to his history here, this pick is more of a pick against the other drivers in this range. While DiBenedetto was able to pull off an 8th place finish here last race, that was an outlier because he had an average running position of 23rd. David Ragan has had his best finishes here by losing places, Ross Chastain is a relative unknown, Landon Cassill has a nice history but when he was running in a better car and Corey LaJoie usually picks up his places by attrition. The only worthy pivot in this range would be Reed Sorenson and that's just because he is $400 cheaper and starting 38th.

Sub $5,000- Bj McLeod ($4,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

McLeod was able to pick up a few spots in his only race here and is starting dead last, so he can't lose you any points. He is also not the cheapest driver in the field, which may work to our advantage because the extra few hundred dollars may lower his ownership.

Other Drivers To Consider

Darlington Review

• Clint Bowyer (-0.50 DK pts): Bowyer was in the top 15 when he plowed into the back of Ryan Newman, ending Bowyer's Race.

• Matt Kenseth (9.50 DK pts): He was able to stay clean but had a pit violation that he couldn't recover from.

• Kyle Busch (37.00 DK pts): He had an outside shot to dominate but couldn't make it up front, had a decent finish but it wasn't even close to enough.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Indy that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($12,200 DK, $13,700 FD)- Starting in the front row, second most likely dominator.

Joey Logano ($8,600 DK, $12,500 FD)- Underpriced and can lead laps

Paul Menard ($6,700 DK, $7,300 FD)- Another upside play with better equipment.

Top Driver to Avoid

Darlington Review:

• Jaime McMurray (58.50 DK pts): McMurray was actually much lower owned than I expected but that didn't stop him from smashing. He was in every winning lineup as well as the perfect lineup. This was a rough weekend, no other way to put it.

Indy Pick

Kurt Busch ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD)

Kurt has been on an unbelievable run recently but he is terrible at Indy. He has had negative place differential in 6 of his last 7 races here and only 1 top 10. He is underpriced compared to the success he has had this season, but it still is not worth the risk.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard Cheatsheet! It is loaded with comments this week but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat or on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!