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NASCAR Bojangles' Southern 500 Preview 🏁

After a nice week off, NASCAR heads to Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina for the Bojangles' Southern 500. Darlington is a unique track because it is not quite 1.5 miles long (only 1.3) and isn't shaped like the run of the mill D-shaped ovals. The raceway has more of an egg shaped design that is wider at turns 1 and 2 than in turns 3 and 4 but has equally long straightaways. The track surface is also pretty rough, so there will be a good share of lead changes and accidents. Just a reminder that the race is Sunday night, and also this is the last race before the NFL season.

Last race’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Elliott, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Blaney, Blake Jones, Logano 464.50 DK pts

$100K Chrome Horn: Elliott, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Blaney, Blake Jones, Logano 464.50 DK pts Min cash: 283.5 DK pts.

$20K Happy Hour: Elliott, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Blaney, Blake Jones, Logano 464.50 DK pts Min cash: 284.75 DK pts.

$225K Piston:Elliott, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Blaney, Blake Jones, Logano 464.50 DK pts Min cash: 283.75 DK pts.

On to Darlington!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 367 laps will be run and 91.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 315 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 157.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

Dominators will once again be important at Darlington. In 4 of the last 5 races here, there was one major dominator leading at least 197 laps with no other driver leading more than 100. Last race, there were two drivers that led 124 laps and one other that led 76, but that is not the norm. In most of the races, the driver starting first was also the main dominator and almost all of the laps led came from drivers in the top 10, but the dominator was not always the race winner. So you will need the dominator and the winner to get to the top of the leaderboard. There are also a good number of cautions and drivers that run into some sort of trouble at Darlington, so cheap drivers come into play. There was a driver in the sub- $5,500 range in each of the last 2 perfect lineups, and with the crazy prices on some of these drivers, I would expect that trend to continue. In summary, you will want 2-3 drivers that start in the top 10 that can win/lead laps, then fill in the rest of your lineups with drivers who can survive the race and pick up some spots.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 167 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bristol Review:

• Kyle Larson (57.25 DK pts): Larson started on the pole, led a few laps, but then lost the lead on the first restart and couldn't get back to the front. He was almost able to get the win but that still wouldn't have paid off his salary.

• Kyle Busch (30.50 DK pts): Spun on the third lap, was able to fix heavy damage but went two laps down. Over the course of the race he picked up 23 fastest laps and was in the top 5 when he spun out one last time and put a nail in his coffin.

Bristol Picks:

Denny Hamlin ($9,900 DK, $11,600 FD)

Picking the pole sitter and expecting them to lead a bunch of laps did not work well for us last week, but we need to go back to the well. Many of the big name drivers don't have a great history at Darlington and will need to lead a ton of laps to pay off there salary, but we are getting Hamlin at a great price and in a great starting position. In his last 8 races at Darlington, Hamlin has 2 wins and 7 finished inside the top 6. His second practice single lap time wasn't the best, but his 10 lap averages in both practices were impressive.

Kevin Harvick ($11,400 DK, $13,400 FD)

Harvick is starting 22nd, so it is going to be hard for him to dominate, but a combination of his price and starting position may lower his ownership. He has started on the pole in 3 of the last 4 races here and has shown the ability to dominate, but getting up front will be his challenge. He is another driver that had rough single lap speeds but was good over the long run. It's a bit of a gamble that can pay off in a big way.

Tournament Targets

Bristol Review:

• Ryan Newman (44.75 DK pts): Fairly chalky and paid off. Was able to finish 12th with 1 fastest lap but was not in the perfect/winning lineup.

• Trevor Bayne (47.50 DK pts): Not nearly as chalky as I was expecting but he paid off in a big way. Still wasn't in the perfect/winning lineup but was the 10th highest scoring driver on the slate.

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (23.50 DK pts): The risky pick did not pay off. In the article, I was expecting Stenhouse to be a nice pivot off of a higher owned Jones, but as the race approached I mentioned in the chat that Stenhouse was actually going to be pretty heavily owned himself, making Jones the better play. Stenhouse was having a nice race until he ran into trouble.

Darlington Picks:

Jimmie Johnson ($8,300 DK , $10,100 FD)

There are not too many safe plays this weekend, so a lot of these picks are making me uncomfortable. Might as well start with a driver who qualified 20th but will be scored from the rear. Johnson ran in the top 10 in both single and 10 laps speed in both practices, but during the second round of qualifying, he hit the wall and sustained enough damage that he needs it to be fixed, moving him to the back. Johnson is cheap enough that we don't need him to dominate. We just need a top 10 and he has 367 laps to get there.

Kasey Kahne ($6,300 DK , $6,200 FD)

Kahne qualified 29th and had impressive single and 10 lap speed in both practices, but he always seems to disappoint when I write him up. He has 5 top 17's in his last 7 races here and he has a safe enough floor as long as he doesn't get caught up in a wreck.

Austin Dillon ($6,600 DK , $8,700 FD)

Austin Dillon is another underpriced driver that has a good history, but starting 18th, he carries a lot of risk. Dillon has a career best finish of 4th at Darlington and has shown the ability to pick up as many as 10 places. But his practice times and recent form worry me. If he started further back, he has a chance to be one of the highest owned drivers on the slate but he carries increased risk now.

Bargain Bin

Bristol Review:

• Matt DiBenedetto (29.00 DK pts): Second highest scoring driver in the $5,000-$5,500 range but as long as you avoided Lajoie, they were pretty much interchangeable.

• Jesse Little (7.00 DK pts): Second lowest scoring driver in the sub-$5,000 range, ran into trouble and had his day end early.

Darlington Picks

Sub $5,500- Ty Dillon ($5,400 DK, $5,900 FD)

Dillon is the driver starting furthest forward in this range but also has the highest ceiling. He picked up 12th place last race here, and if he pulls off a top 20, he will crush value.

Sub $5,000- Jeffrey Earnhardt ($4,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Earnhardt is another driver starting in the rear due to car troubles during qualifying, but unlike the other guys, he's going to be scored from the 40th position. All he has to do is finish the race to hit value. And judging by his main car's practice times, he is actually a little faster than some of his peers.

Other Drivers To Consider

Bristol Review

• Kevin Harvick (55.00 DK pts): 46 fast laps, led 8 but post 4 spots. Scored nicely but not enough to make the perfect/winning lineup.

• Jaime McMurray (6.00 DK pts): Wasn't able to finish the race, only ran 435 laps but started 20th, so didn't go negative.

• Chris Buescher (35.50 DK pts): Picked up 9 spots and 3 fastest laps but didn't do enough.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Darlington that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Clint Bowyer ($8,900 DK, $10,300 FD)

Matt Kenseth ($6,800 DK, $8,100 FD)

Kyle Busch ($12,400 DK, $14,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bristol Review:

• William Byron (3.00 DK pts): Started 5th finished 23rd with no fastest laps or laps led. Avoiding Byron paid off.

Darlington Pick

Jaime McMurray ($7,400 DK, $7,900 FD)

Since all of my other picks made me uncomfortable, this one might as well too. McMurray will be very highly owned since he qualified 31st, but he will be moved to the rear due to an engine change. His practice times were terrible but is history is great. This is more of a game theory play of fading a chalky fringe driver and waiting for it to blow up.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bojangles' Southern 500 Cheatsheet! It is loaded with comments this week but if you want to discuss anything, feel free to find me in the chat or on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!