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Thanks for joining us again, last week we had a LineStar user win big and we had one of the most active weekends in that chat, so lets see if we can do it again. NASCAR returns to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN for the NASCAR Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. As you can see from the drawn out race name, this weekend's race will take place Saturday Night at 7:30, so make sure you set your lineups Saturday and not Sunday. Bristol is a 0.5 mile concrete oval with high banking and two pit roads. Races at Bristol run 500 laps and we are sure too see some wrecks, some cautions and a ton of dominator points. Please note that the race time has been moved up an hour due to weather concerns, so lineup lock is now 6:30 PM.

Last week’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Blake Jones, Kurt Busch, Harvick, Suarez, Keselowski, Austin Dillon 344.75 DK pts

$100K Chrome Horn: Buescher, DiBenedetto, Elliott, Harvick, Keselowski, Suarez 333.50 DK pts. Min cash: 242.75 DK pts.

$20K Happy Hour:Buescher, DiBenedetto, Elliott, Harvick, Keselowski, Suarez 333.50 DK pts. Min cash: 242.75 DK pts.

$225K Piston:Buescher, DiBenedetto, Elliott, Harvick, Keselowski, Suarez 333.50 DK pts.  Min cash: 242.75 DK pts.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 212.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

It seems like this is the first weekend since we started this newsletter that I can stress the importance of dominators. There are 125 laps led points and about 212.5 fastest lap points for the taking this week, so we need to get our dominators right if we want to be successful. Each of the last 4 races had a driver that led 200+ laps, a driver that led 100+ laps and possibly a 3rd driver that led 75-100 laps. The driver starting on the pole has been in the perfect lineup in each of the last 3 races and that driver has led at least 100 laps in each of those races. The other dominator also tends to start in the top 6, but Harvick was able to lead 100 laps when he started 24th. Don't be afraid to dip into the $4000 range this weekend either, the last 3 perfect lineups were able to squeeze in their studs by rostering at least 1 cheap driver. In summary, we are looking to build lineups with 2-3 dominators starting in the top 10, a low priced driver that can stay out of trouble and then fill in the rest of your lineup with drivers that can get into the top 10. The low priced driver just needs to pick up places but the non-dominator drivers must get into the top 10 if you want a shot at the big prizes.

This week, we will see a ton of cautions (usually 8 or 9) and can see as many as 100 laps run under caution here. There will also be an insane amount of drivers that finish more than 5 laps behind the leader. On average, about 15 drivers finish more than 5 laps behind the leader and more than half of that can be attributed to drivers finding some sort of trouble. All of these accidents mainly mean 2 things: 1) Don't be afraid to mix in drivers that you wouldn't normally play from the rear of the field because all they may need to do is survive and 2) There will be a lot of landmines in lineups so, in a way, this is kind of like PGA DFS, we will all be sweating getting 6/6 through the cut (finish) line.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 125 laps, Stage 2: 125 laps, Stage 3: 250 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Michigan Review:

• Chase Elliott (48 DK pts): Ended up in every winning lineup but not the perfect lineup, was hoping for a little more out of him but a 9th place finish is still a nice race.

• Kevin Harvick (107.50 DK pts): Harvick was the main dominator of the race leading 108 laps with 65 fastest laps. He was in every winning lineup as well as the perfect lineup.

Bristol Picks: 

Kyle Larson ($11,400 DK, $12,000 FD)

If you read the lineup construction section or the cheatsheet you will know I love Larson this week. The pole-sitter has ended up in the winning lineup in each of the last 3 races and Larson himself has led over 200 laps in 2 of the previous 3 races. Now sure, that's the past, how has he been performing in practice? He had the second fastest single lap and 6th fastest 10 lap in practice 1, and while his single lap speed was concerning in the second practice, he posted the best 10 lap average. Larson will be highly owned this weekend and got a big price bump, but he is absolutely worth it.

Kyle Busch ($12,300 DK, $13,500 FD)

Sorry that I am not getting creative with my second foundational pick, but Kyle Busch has been the most dominant driver at Bristol over the last 4 races. He has won the last 2 races here, has led 117/156/0/256 in the last 4 races here and, even though he has been incredibly accident prone, he has managed to be in the perfect lineup even when he finished 39th. He will definitely get up front at some point, it's just a matter of how long and where he ends up.

Tournament Targets

Michigan Review:

• Ty Dillon (-5.00 DK pts): Popular value pick this weekend across the industry and he was doing what we needed him to do until he ran over a backup battery and blew up...literally.

• AJ Allmendinger (25.00 DK pts): Only picked up 3 positions this weekend and wasn't able to pay off his salary.

• Kurt Busch (44.50 DK pts): Busch was Elliott's alter ego of sorts, found his way into the perfect lineup but not any winning lineups. He was a better value than Elliot but was a much higher risk play. He paid off though, and that is all that we can ask for.

Bristol Picks:

Ryan Newman ($6,600 DK , $8,700 FD)

Newman is the cheapest he has been since May and it comes in a week that we need it. He has a top 10 in 5 of the last 7 races here, usually when starting in the high teens and had the 4th best 10 lap average in the second practice session. Newman starts far enough back that he has some built in safety, but has the a high enough ceiling to crush value.

Trevor Bayne ($5,900 DK , $6,800 FD)

Starting one spot ahead of Newman is Trevor Bayne. Bayne was incredibly chalky last week and blew up late costing countless players thousands of dollars. Hopefully that will keep Bayne's ownership down and give us some edge on the field. He is another driver that did not put up the greatest single lap speeds but was impressive over long runs. He has shown the ability to pass at Bristol, having a positive place differential in 7 of his last 8 races here and was even able to pull off a 5th place finish.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.  ($7,800 DK , $8,500 FD)

I am trying to make the third pick risky each week, and this week I am going with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He has not finished worse than 14th in the last 4 races here, and if he started further back, I would argue locking him in, but starting 12th means if he runs into trouble, he can be an aforementioned landmine. I am putting a premium on finishing top 10 and was debating between Almirola/Jones/Stenhouse, and while the other 2 might have stronger cars at bigger tracks, you can argue that Stenhouse has the upper hand at Bristol and could be a pivot off of Jones.

Bargain Bin

Michigan Review:

• Because of the higher than normal incident rate and a good performance by Matt DiBenedetto, this range was actually useful. Blake Jones found his way into the perfect lineup by finishing 30th through attrition (he only ran 194/200 laps) but was not in any winning lineup. Again, only 2 drivers from this range scored more than 20 points: Jones and DiBenedetto.

Bristol Picks

Sub $5,500- Matt DiBenedetto ($5,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

There are never too many drivers in these ranges, so I feel like I am getting repetitive, but DiBenedetto has a great track history, never having negative place differential and even having a high finish of 8th. If you are looking to fade him, the only thing that worries me is that he has never gotten into an accident here and his luck is bound to run out.

Sub $5,000- Jesse Little ($4,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Little has almost no name recognition but has been fairly impressive in practice. Starting 33rd may seem like it hurts his floor, but at a small track like Bristol, it may be used to his advantage because the leaders will have to lap 7 cars before they get to him....if you can call that an advantage.

Other Drivers To Consider

Michigan Review

• William Byron (-8.00 DK pts): Another highly owned driver who ran into trouble and couldn't get out of it. Bumped into Truex Jr. early, took some damage and was never able to recover.

• Kyle Larson (30.5 DK pts): Finished right where he started, picked up a few fastest laps but it didn't help.

• Kasey Kahne (20.5 DK pts): Only picked up 2 spots and wasn't able to pay off his salary.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($12,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

Jaime McMurray ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD)

Chris Buecsher ($6,200 DK, $6,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michigan Review:

• Ryan Newman (23.00 DK pts): Qualified 6th, actually led some laps but finished 15th. He didn't blow up your lineups but he didn't help them too much either.

• Daniel Suarez (62.00 DK pts): This pick was talked about extensively in the chat and even in the article. He was a lock for cash, incredibly highly owned and paid off. He was able to finish 11th and found himself in every winning and perfect lineup. In GPPs, there was some merit to going underweight, and his alternate pit strategy almost blew up in his face. All together, this was a great race for Suarez.

Bristol Pick

William Byron ($7,400 DK, $7,800 FD)

Another driver that burned the masses at Michigan, Byron qualified 5th this weekend but had single lap times good enough for 13th and 17th as well as the 21st best 10-lap average in second practice. He has not raced well here in the Cup series or Xfinity and I can't see him holding on to a top 10 or making any winning lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Cheatsheet!  It is loaded with comments this week but if you want to discuss anything feel free to find me in the chat or on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!