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NASCAR Consumers Energy 400 Preview 🏁

After a bit of a hectic schedule last week, its nice to get back to some normalcy when NASCAR returns to Michigan International Speedway in Brooklyn, MI for the NASCAR Consumers Energy 400. Remember, Michigan Speedway is a 2-mile D shaped oval which is similar to Autoclub Speedway in California. The last time we were in Michigan the race only ran 133 of the scheduled 200 laps due to rain and Clint Bowyer drove away the winner.

Last week’s winning lineups:

Perfect Lineup: Elliott, Kyle Busch, Jones, Suarez, Kurt Busch, Byron 342.25 DK pts

$100K Chrome Horn: Elliott, Kyle Busch, Jones, Suarez, Kurt Busch, Byron 342.25 DK pts. Min cash: 246.00 DK pts.

$20K Happy Hour: Elliott, Kyle Busch, Jones, Suarez, Kurt Busch, Byron 342.25DK pts. Min cash: 242.75 DK pts.

$240K Piston:Elliott, Kyle Busch, Jones, Suarez, Kurt Busch, Byron  342.25 DK pts.  Min cash: 249.50 DK pts.

On to Michigan!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points = 0.25 points per lap led. This week, 200 laps will be run and 50 points will be awarded (unless overtime).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 170 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 85 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗️

I am going to keep it short and sweet this week, we are looking for 1 major dominator that starts up front, a minor dominator that starts in the top 10 and then place differential plays. We want to avoid drivers that have practice times in the bottom 10-12 because they cannot keep up with the pack and their place differential will rely solely on other drivers having troubles (which isn't a common occurrence).

Some notes from practice:

• The second practice was shortened due to mist and some drivers serving penalties were not able to get too many laps in. My suggestion is to disregard second practice times all together and focus on the third practice.

• Reed Sorenson practiced the #15 car but Ross Chastain will race on Sunday. He will start from the rear but be scored from 35th.

The stage breakdown is as follows: Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 80 laps.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Watkins Glen Review:

• Kurt Busch (62.5DK pts): Started 36th due to a failed inspection and finished 9th. He was my highest recommended driver and very chalky but he found himself in the perfect lineup (which won most tournaments).

• Daniel Suarez (57 DK pts): Suarez was also pretty chalky but not nearly as much as Paul Menard. In the chat, I said in cash games Menard was almost a lock just because he started in the back, but Suarez was the perfect pivot and he paid off.

Michigan Picks: 

Chase Elliott ($8,900 DK, $10,600 FD)

A lot of NASCAR DFS is about riding the hot hand, and there is not one hotter than Chase Elliot. After floundering for most of the season, he has 3 top 7 finishes in his last 3 races including a win last week. Elliott seems to have found some speed in his car recently and he will need it in Michigan, but that shouldn't be a problem because he has never finished worse than 9th here and, at this price, that would be enough for cash games as well as GPPs.

Kevin Harvick ($12,200 DK, $12,700 FD)

There is usually one major dominator at Michigan and it generally comes from the pole, but I see this race going a little differently. Denny Hamlin always fails to impress and Kyle Busch just doesn't seem to have Michigan figured out, which leaves Harvick as the next logical dominator starting up front. He hasn't won here since 2010 but has led 33 or more laps in 4 of the last 9 and was on his way to dominating the June race until Bowyer outsmarted him during the final caution.

Tournament Targets

Watkins Glen Review:

• Matt Kenseth (12.00 DK pts): Kenseth was having solid race until he spun out late in the race and lost all of his hard work. When all was said and done, he finished 29th, which hurt.

• Jamie McMurray (44.00 DK pts): McMurray silently put up a nice race finishing 7th. He didn't win anyone a tournament but he finished with his best DK score since the first Michigan race.

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (35.00 DK pts): Stenhouse was my crazy play of the week, and even though I was worried about ownership, he ended up paying off his salary. Again he did not find his way into the perfect/winning lineup but you can't be mad about his performance.

Michigan Picks:

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK , $5,500 FD)

I swore off Dillon earlier in the season after he kept consistently burning me, but Michigan has been very kind to him (he has scored more than 33 DK points in 4 of his last 5 races at this track). While I don't expect a top 15 out of him, a finish between 18-22 is a fair expectation.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,300 DK , $7,100 FD)

Allmendinger has not finished worse than 20th in his last 4 races at Michigan and has had positive place differential in each of those races. During a week that we want to avoid the super cheap drivers, we need to find value in different ways, and I believe 'Dinger can do just that for us.

Kurt Busch  ($8,400 DK , $10,200 FD)

Kurt Busch was my fade for the first Michigan race because he started on the pole and I didn't think he could dominate, but he had a solid enough race to land himself in the perfect lineup. He has been incredibly consistent with a top 12 in each of his last 5 races here. Starting 12th, we need him to move up some but I think he has a safe enough floor.

Bargain Bin

Watkins Glen Review:

• Matt DiBenedetto (6.00 DK points)- lowest scoring driver in this range, another week where dipping this low didn't pay off but you were better off playing anyone else.

• Landon Cassill (17.00 DK points)- This ended up being one of his best races of the year but still not worth it.

Michigan Picks

Michigan was the first race where I suggested to fade everyone less than $5,000 and this time I'm moving it up to the $5,500 range. Corey Lajoie and Ross Chastain were the only drivers to score more than 20 points and cost less than $5,500 during the first Michigan race. You can take a stab at any of these drivers if you absolutely have to, but the drivers down here end up killing any possible ceiling you have for your team.

Other Drivers To Consider

Watkins Glen Review

• Martin Truex Jr. (54.50 DK pts): His score was boosted by 19 fast laps but he was bested by Kyle Busch in more ways than one.

• Denny Hamlin (19.5 DK pts): I was expecting more out of Hamlin on the pole but he put up a dud.

• McDowell (20 DK pts): Didn't reach value, he was another high risk pick but he didn't pan out.

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Michigan that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

William Byron ($6,800 DK, $7,700 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,600 DK, $11,800 FD)

Kasey Kahne ($6,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Watkins Glen Review:

• Kyle Larson (37.00 DK pts): Another week where the fade didn't absolutely blow up but also wasn't in any winning lineup. He had his best race at the Glen of his career but still didn't perform well enough to win you money.

Michigan Pick

Ryan Newman ($7,000 DK, $7,300 FD)

Newman starts 6th and will have to race his butt off to hold onto a top 10. He is a safe fade because it is not likely that he will make it to the front and crush value.

Bonus GPP Fade: Daniel Suarez ($7,800 DK and $8,400 FD)

This is a GPP only play because this is incredibly risky, Suarez is starting from the back and can literally not lose any points. However, in his 3 races here, Suarez has had negative place differential (also something he cannot do this weekend) and has an average finishing position of 30. In cash games, he is almost a virtual lock and in GPPs, he may be close to 50% owned. So if he flames out, that will be your chance to rocket up the leaderboard.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Consumer Energy 400 Cheatsheet!   It does not have comments section this week so if you want my thoughts on individual drivers reach out to me in the chat or on Twitter

Follow me on Twitter @joejets19 and Good Luck!