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NASCAR Pocono 400 Preview 🏁

This week, we go out to the Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, PA for the NASCAR Pocono 400. Pocono Raceway is unique because it is a 2.5 mile track that resembles a triangle more than the standard ovals you see in most NASCAR speedways. Due to its odd configuration, it is affectionately known as the "Tricky Triangle" and it can give trouble to even the most seasoned veterans.

Weather 🌤

The current forecast indicates the race should run go off without a hitch. There is rain in the forecast for Saturday which may wash out the final practice but they should be able to get the track dry by race time on Sunday.

Scoring Breakdown

1. Dominator Points = 0.25 points per lap led. Since there are only 160 laps for this race, 40 points will be awarded (unless overtime)

2. Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost

3. Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (about 140 laps are run under the green flag for a total of 70 possible points). DO NOT EVER TRY TO PREDICT THESE, they are incredibly hard to predict, so just know they are scored but are subject to many in-race variables.

4. Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points and for each position gained another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6...) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction

You may be thinking, "why did you just go over all of that," we could just look it up on DraftKings. It is important to note that not every race runs the same amount of laps, thus not every race should be attacked the same way. In the last 6 races, no one has led more than 100 laps (100, 97, 97, 74, 51, 38). While that may seem like a good percentage of domination, that only translated to 25, 24.5, 24.5, 18.5, 12.75 and 9.5 points, respectively. This means, for Pocono, we want to try to find the one dominator and then round out our lineups with 5 drivers that we think will start further back but will make their way up front.

Now, this is a tip for the hot shots entering the mini-Max or playing 10+ lineups, there are about 5-6 drivers every race that finish more than 10 laps down due to accidents or car trouble (roughly 15%). Unless you want to be incredibly risky, your max ownership % for any individual driver should be between 75-80% to make sure that even if one of your drivers is part of the 15%, you have a fighting chance.

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($11,300 DK, $12,000 FD)

Kyle Busch has been on fire this year and I think it will continue this week. He dominated last year, leading 74 laps in August and 100 laps in June. He is starting 5th behind Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex but had the fastest car in the first practice. He starts the furthest back out of the three highest priced drivers and has the best track history. He is my pick to be the major dominator of the race.

Brad Keselowski ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Any time you can get Brad Keselowski for under $10,000 on DK it's a steal. He has placed 5th or better in each of his last 5 races here, starting as far back as 11th. He starts this race in 17th position but he shouldn't have a problem cracking the top 10, which would score him 41 points and a top 5 would guarantee at least 51.

Top Tournament Targets

This week there will be some fairly chalky plays and some nice pivots. Don't be afraid to eat some chalk but, if you can, try to find a place to differentiate.

Eric Jones ($8,400 DK , $9,700 FD)

Everyone and there mother will want to play Aric Almirola since he starts 34th and, in cash games, that might be the play, but I prefer Eric Jones. In his two races here last year he finished 8th and 3rd, respectively. Almirola has had a tough time racing here in the past with 4 accidents in his last 6 but, even when he gets to the finish line, the best he has ever done is 18th. As long as Jones finishes inside the top 10 and Almirola finishes outside the top 15, Jones will be the better play.

Matt Kenseth ($7,100 DK , $8,000 FD)

This is one of the riskiest plays yet because the jury is still out on whether the driver makes the car or the car makes the driver (so to speak). To catch you up a little bit, Kenseth was absolutely dominant here in the past but has recently stepped away from full time racing and then came back for a bit. He is now in considerably worse equipment and I have tried to avoid him his first 2 races back. He seems to have gotten a little more comfortable in his new ride and has a safe enough floor that he can be in consideration as a GPP target.

Daniel Suarez ($7,300 DK , $9,200 FD)

No matter what this kid does, DK keeps his price in the same range. He crushed value in 5 of his last 7 races overall and I expect him to do that again here. He finished 7th and 15th here last year but didn't pick up too many places in the process. His car is practicing better than it qualified and he just needs a top 13 to hit 5x.

Bargain Bin

Ask anyone on the street what stores constitute a bargain bin and you will get a range of answers from TJ Maxx to the Salvation Army. In honor of those fine establishments, I will try to find a driver under $5,500 (TJ Maxx) and under $5,000 (Salvation Army) that will free up some salary so you can go after the big guns.

Ty Dillon ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD)

Ty has been burning me all year but I am going back to the well this week. He starts 29th but has never finished worse than 21st here, even when starting this far back. He is the type of driver that, if he hits, can be in a GPP winning lineup.

Gray Gaulding ($4,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

There aren't too many drivers to choose from in this range this week but this is the best choice. He has the most reliable car and, if he is able to avoid any mishaps, a top 30 gets him 20 points.

Other Drivers To Consider

This week is all about place differential (if you have not seen a trend in my picks) and that brings a bunch of viable pivots into play.

Top Driver to Avoid 🚫

Not every driver does well at every track, and not every track is kind to every driver. Each week I will try to find a fairly bold (I'm looking at you Kyle Busch at Dover) yet reasonable driver to fade.

Kevin Harvick ($11,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Why not end the first Pitstop with a bang? Now, hear me out, this isn't as crazy as it seems. Remember when we discussed how many dominator points are available this race? Well, if Harvick were to lead every lap of this race and win, that would amount to 87 points plus however many fastest lap points he were to accrue. But that hasn't happened in a long time. The historical max seems to be about 100 laps led, which lowers that score to 72. Now, if he pulls a Joey Logano and leads 97 laps and finishes 20th, thats around a 42 point day....right around what I expect from Erik Jones. This is not a comfortable fade and I don't recommend 0% exposure, but less than 15% seems fair.

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CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD MY POCONO 400 CHEATSHEET

Good luck this week guys! And feel free to hit me up in the chat @joejets19 if you want a second opinion on any specific driver or just want to chat about NASCAR in general! Follow me on Twitter @joejets19.

Thanks for reading!