LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Mobil 1 301

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the Mobil 1 301 Cheatsheet

Mobil 1 301🏁

The Bristol Night Race provided as much excitement as we could hope for from a cut-off race. There were playoff sweats, tire strategy, and a nightmarish fumble from a potential first-time winner. The round of 12 kicks off this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH, for the Mobil 1 301. The track is a 1.058-mile, painfully flat, asphalt oval. Tires are again going to be the talk of the race. Goodyear is running the exact tire that they ran at Richmond, Bowman Gray, Martinsville, and North Wilkesboro. Last year’s race was a caution fest; hopefully, that gets wrangled in a bit, but we still get some drama and strategy.

While temperatures will be noticeably cooler this weekend, there is still only a 10% chance of rain on Sunday, so there should be no issue running the entire race.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 301 laps will be run this week, and 75.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 255 laps should run under the green flag for 114.75 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) This will be a one-dominator race. Each of the last three races have only had one dominator that started in the top 4. Drivers can drive through the field and lead laps, but the major dominator is going to be starting up front.

2) Passing is possible, but finishing position is more important. Fast cars will be able to pass, but this is still a short track, and track position is still key. Finding drivers who can finish in the top 11 will be our highest priority. Focusing most of our lineup on the top 20 may not be the worst idea, but overall, we want drivers with top 11 potential.

3) A well-balanced lineup may be better than forcing a basement driver. Yes, there are slightly more than the “standard” number of laps, but this tends to be a one-dominator race, so taking multiple shots at a dominator in one lineup will not be ideal. Therefore, we should choose our dominator and build a balanced lineup around them. In cash, we could always use a basement driver as a punt, but I wouldn’t be surprised if no basement driver ended up in the perfect lineup.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 115 Laps

Stage 3: 116 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD): Larson is the 5th highest priced driver on the slate and my model’s projected winner. While I highly doubt Kyle will be a dominator, he has a great average finish of 7th over the last three races and starts 16th on Sunday, providing plenty of place differential for cash games.

Chase Elliott ($9,200 DK, $11,000 FD): Elliott cannot get out of his own way during qualifying and starts 27th on Sunday. He has top 12 finishes in two of the last three races at Loudon and posted top 5 long run speeds in practice on Saturday. Chase is only 4 points over the cut line currently and will need to move forward quickly if he is interested in extending his season past this round.

Erik Jones ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD): Loudon is one of Jones’s best tracks and he provides great value from his 26th place starting position. Erik was remarkably fast over the short run in practice, but his 10-lap average was dreadful. I worry about his ceiling in tournaments, but Jones could certainly go a long way in promoting our balanced build in cash.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD): This is a a gut pick, there are no two way about it. Logano is a fantastic short-track driver, and he starts on the pole; it's as simple as that. His practice speeds weren’t great, but he does have a top finish of 2nd over his last 3 races here. Joey will either be the major dominator or a complete bust, and my gut says he runs away with this thing on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD): While my gut says Logano dominates, my model says Larson wins, but Bell leads 40% of the laps. That is a wild prediction, but one I cannot take lightly. Bell starts 19th, which is way outside the parameters for our dominator pool, but there has to be a reason why he is the highest-priced driver on both sites. Christopher has a ton of place differential potential, and if he can find his way in the front of the field, there is no chance he misses the perfect lineup.

Daniel Suarez ($6,000 DK, $4,500 FD): Suarez is having a forgettable season and his luck wasn’t any better on Saturday when he turned in a 32nd place qualifying effort. On the bright side, Loudon is one of Suarez’s better tracks with three straight to 21 finishes. While I doubt he lands in the top 10, a top 15 finish is not out of the question, and he is cheap enough that he could still end up in the perfect lineup in that scenario.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD): We all know how much I enjoy writing up Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He starts 34th on Sunday but he was actually respectably fast in practice running the 18th best 20 lap average. Stenhouse finished 7th in this race last year, which is way higher than anyone should project him, but a top 20 finish is all we would really need for him to hit value.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($4,700 DK, $2,000 FD)

This is another model pick. Dillon starts 30th and is projected to finish 19th, which would be one spot better than his finish here last year. While I am never too high on Ty, he is super cheap and found himself in my projected perfect lineup, so let’s see how this plays out.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Loudon that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Austin Cindric ($7,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Shane Van Gisbergen ($5,500 DK, $2,500 FD)

This is low-hanging fruit, but SVG starts 10th on Sunday, and that is way further forward than he should be. It would be pretty ironic that one race after being eliminated from the playoffs, he puts it all together on a non-road course, but I do not see that being the case this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 24-32 (8.25 u)

At this point, the sportsbooks don’t have any H2Hs posted, which makes me sad, so we are getting creative. We already know I have a gut feeling about Logano, and I think he leads at least the entire first stage, which should win this prop. I generally prefer to fade finishing position props and love betting against Briscoe, but his top 10 prop pays -200, which is insane value that I can’t pass up.

Blaney had the best car in practice, but his track history is garbage. This season, Blaney has been pretty much throwing his historical performances completely out the window, but I still have a hard time betting on a top 3. Bowman has been on a terrible run since the beginning of the playoffs, and I don’t expect it to get any better. He starts 7th on Sunday, and he should fall out of the top 10 by the end of the first stage.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 6-12 (-3.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Mobil 1 301 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!