🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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The great thing about the NASCAR schedule is the variety it provides. Not everyone likes superspeedways and road courses, some people like short tracks or even cookie cutters, and over the course of 36 races we get to experience all different types of racing environments. Unfortunately, Pocono is my least favorite track on the schedule so I apologize for my apparent lack of enthusiasm. Pocono Raceway is a 2.5 mile triangular shaped flat track nestled within the Pocono Mountains in Long Pond, PA. The track is known as the "Tricky Triangle" because of its three unique turns modeled after Trenton Speedway, Indy and the Milwaukee Mile. The weather can be tricky at these races because of the mountainous climate so anything can happen on Sunday.

On to Pocono!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 135 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 60.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

There are a strange amount of laps in a Pocono race, 160. It is around the same number of laps as you would see at a superspeedway but back loaded lineups generally don't work here because it is very difficult to pass. The last two seasons featured double header race here so their results are a bit skewed. Drivers used the same car for both races, and the cars that were good on Saturday were also good on Sunday. Over the last eleven races, only four drivers led more than 70 laps in a single race, and all four of them started on the front row and made the perfect lineups. In the other seven races, laps led were more spread out and not everyone who spent some time in the front of the field managed to make their way into the perfect lineup. We will ideally want to focus our energy on rostering drivers with top 15 upside, regardless of starting position. If we think a dominator will emerge, which may well be the case, will will want to concentrate on the very front of the field but be careful, varying pit strategies will come into play (like at a road race) so the best car may not always be at the front of the race. The bargain basement is going to be a risky proposition on Sunday because those drivers do not have the ability to land in the top 15 without all hell breaking loose. In cash you can play 1 driver in the range, but I would avoid it in tournaments. As weird as it feels to not anchor our lineups with a dominator, if we hone in on drivers who can finish well, some of them are bound to pick up a few laps led and fastest laps.

Stage 1: 30 laps, Stage 2: 65 laps, Stage 3: 65 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($9,000 DK, $9,200 FD)

Harvick is a great example of a driver that is both safe enough for cash games but has tournament-winning upside this weekend. He is starting 24th on Sunday which takes him out of any dominator potential but he certainly has a chance at a top 15 finish with top 10 upside. Over the last 6 races at Pocono he has an average finish of 7.16 with five top 8 finishes including a win. He has been strong at similar tracks this season with an average finish of 8.75 and an average positive place differential of 9.75. Qualifying has not been kind to Harvick this season and he has not been able to find victory lane but he should be an important piece to our cash game lineups.

Erik Jones ($7,600 DK, $6,000 FD)

The super-chalk of the slate is going to be Erik Jones. He starts 34th on Sunday and was very impressive in practice turning in the 6th best single lap time and 4th best five-lap average. His history here was beautiful when he was with JGR but has not been ideal once he moved to inferior equipment. Lucky for us he has shown the ability to finish well at similar tracks, with an average finish of 21.5 which suggests he will be useful for cash games but he may not possess the race winning upside we need, leaving us with an interesting decision to make in tournaments.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

Kyle is starting 2nd alongside teammate Denny Hamlin this Sunday. They both love to lead laps at Pocono, but I prefer Busch's recent form. Busch and Hamlin both have two wins over the last six races here, and Busch has led more than 30 laps in five of the last seven races here. His single lap speed was better than Hamlin's during practice and his average finish this season at similar track is also much better. Hamlin will have the clean air early and I expect that to give him a bit of an advantage but as the race rolls on, I think Kyle Busch has a better chance of leading a significant amount of laps and winning the race.

Alex Bowman ($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD)

I love going back to drivers that burned the field as mega-chalk, then using them the following week when everyone is still mad. Bowman is starting 17th on Sunday and is coming off of three straight top 9 finishes at Pocono. His long term history is terrible here so that may be another reason his ownership will be lower than it should be. He was impressive in practice running the 9th best single lap speed but failed to run longer than a handful of laps consecutively. Bowman is not a cash save driver but he should be able to provide us with race winning upside if he runs to his full potential.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

This week specifically, this range has almost zero upside. Gragson is starting 22nd and is coming off of an Xfinity on Saturday but his Cup car had almost zero speed in it. This is not a safe play by any means, but if by some miracle he can hang on to his starting position, Noah has more upside than any other driver in this range.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Pocono that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski ($7,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Ross Chastain ($10,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Elliott ($10,100 DK, $13,00 FD)

My Elliott fade blew up on the at Atlanta, but I think we are going to be ok fading him this weekend. Elliott starts 3rd behind two drivers that have much more success at Pocono than he ever had. Elliott was not as good as the front two at his single lap speed but excelled over the 5 lap average. I don't think that will be enough to overcome the edge Hamlin or Busch will get with clean air.

Pitstop Picks

12-30 (-13.1 u)

Hamlin has been the much more consistent driver at Pocono over the last several seasons. Larson is not having a season anywhere near as good as 2021 and is now at a track that he has been known to run into trouble at.

Kes starts 26th and showed some speed last week in Loudon. He was able to hold on to his top 10 position which is much different than picking up `16+ spots. He is not afraid to use funky pit strategy to differentiate himself from the field and I think this is the type of track that can reward that type of racing.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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