🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona 🏁

We're baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack! Welcome to a rare mid-week edition of the Pitstop as we get ready for the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona which take place at the iconic Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach FL. The duels are a staple of the Daytona 500 Speedweek and serve to set the official lineup. There are a ton of moving pieces this week so let's try to sort through them together.

The Duals are unique to the Daytona 500 and are used, in addition to qualifying, to set the field and lineup for the big race on Sunday. They consist of two 60 lap races with 20 drivers in each. Wednesday night's qualifying will lock in the front row and is used as a template for the duels with all of the drivers that qualified in an odd position (3,5,7 etc) participation in the first Duel and all of the even drivers in the second Duel. The results of each Duel will determine the official starting order of the Daytona 500 with the first race forming the inside line and the second race forming the outside line (the winner of the first Duel will start third and the winner of the second Duel will start fourth). To add an additional level of quirkiness, points will be awarded for a top 10 finish in each Duel. Also, since there are 6 non-charter drivers in the field vying for 4 open spots in the 500, the fastest two non-charter drivers in qualifying will get a bid into Sunday's race and the best finisher in each of the Duels will round out the field of 40.

That was a ton of confusing information and it doesn't even scratch the surface of the most intriguing part of these races. This is the first time we will see the next generation car on a superspeedway. There are a ton of questions going into these races about how the car will perform and until we get some race condition laps under our belts, I don't really know what to expect.

Since this is a weird and short race, it will be an abbreviated Pitstop just to get our whistles wet but don't worry we will be back this weekend with our own next generation newsletter.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 60 laps will be run this and 15 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 55 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 24.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

I expect these races to be fairly boring to be completely frank. There has been a ton written about the inventory shortage that most of these teams are facing so the drivers literally can't afford to damage their car because some of them won't have backups. We have seen over the years that starting in the front at Daytona is not really advantageous so I don't expect anyone to be going crazy trying to climb the leaderboard. I imagine these will end up being glorified practices with teams or manufacturers linking up and trying to find the best lines around the track, so basically all of the boring laps of superspeedway races without the mad scramble at the end to crown a winner To take advantage of that, I would avoid the traditional backloaded lineups and instead roster at least four drivers starting in the top 10 who we think will pick up a spot or two and finish well and 2 drivers starting outside the top 10 that we think can sneak into the top 10. A 1 dominator lineup could be used in large tournaments but that will be a fairly risky strategy because of the very limited laps led points available.

***At the time of this writing DK and FD have not released salaries for this slate. I do not expect pricing to be too tight and will update chat if anything jumps out at me.***

Duel 1

Starting Lineup

1) Kyle Larson 2) William Byron 3) Chase Elliott 4) Ross Chastain 5) Daniel Suarez 6) Daniel Hemric 7) Ryan Blaney 8) Tyler Reddick 9) Brad Keselowski 10) Chase Briscoe 11) Austin Cindric 12) Erik Jones 13) Kurt Busch 14) Justin Haley 15) Cole Custer 16) Todd Gilliland 17) Noah Gragson* 18) Landon Cassill 19) Kaz Grala* 20) BJ McLeod 21) JJ Yeley*

*denotes non-charter team

Ryan Blaney

Blaney is my favorite driver in the first Duel. He starts 7th and has three inferior drivers starting in front of him so I think he will be able to crack the top 4 pretty easily. Ryan is fairly boom or bust at Daytona, with a win this past August but three finishes worse than 30th in his last six races here. I mentioned earlier that I expect this to be a calmer exhibition than most and that will play directly into Blaney's hands, he can race to the front without having to worry about being caught up in a Big One.

Justin Haley

I will be very interested to see the ownership of Justin Haley in this slate. I would expect him to be close to 80% owned in higher stakes contests but I am not sure the public has caught on to his prowess yet. Yes Haley won here in 2019 but that was flukey, I am more impressed by his 13th place finish in the 2020 Daytona 500 and his 6th place finish last August. Haley starts 14th Thursday night and is a legitimate top 5 threat. My only concern is that he will prefer to start in the rear of the field on Sunday so he tanks the Duel, making him an interesting fade in large scale tournaments.

Austin Cindric

Cindric was an Xfinity superstar that took Brad Keselowski's seat in the No. 2 Team Penske Ford for the 2022 season. He was just about as boom or bust as Blaney (just in the Xfin series) with four top 10 finishes in 8 tries, including a win as well as four bottom 25 finishes. Austin is starting 11th on Thursday and should be able to crack the top 7 fairly easily, anything better than that has a chance to get him into the perfect lineup.

Dual 2

Starting Lineup

1) Alex Bowman 2) Aric Almirola 3 ) Martin Truex Jr. 4) Denny Hamlin 5) Harrison Burton 6) Joey Logano 7) Christopher Bell 8) Bubba Wallace 9) Kyle Busch 10) Austin Dillon 11) Michael McDowell 12) Ty Dillon 13) Kevin Harvick 14) Chris Buescher15) Corey LaJoie 16) Ricky Stenhouse 17) Cody Ware 18) Jacques Villeneuve* 19) Greg Biffle* 20) David Ragan 21) Timmy Hill*

*denotes non-charter team

Austin Dillon

Dual 2 will be the more intriguing race from a DFS perspective with a ton of options in the middle of the field. Dillon has the reputation of being a good superspeedway racer, he even won the Daytona 500 in 2018, and from his starting position of 10th, I believe he has a great chance to pick up a solid number of spots. He is the type of driver that qualifies in the top 20 at Daytona and then is still able to pick up a few spots. Considering his current starting position would put him 20th on Sunday, I actually think this may be his floor. I don't expect Dillon to sneak a win but I do think he has top 5 potential.

Kevin Harvick

Harvick is coming off six straight top 5 Duel finishes. He does not perform well during the full length Daytona races but these abbreviated, calmer exhibitions suit him very well. He is starting 13th on Thursday and may fly under the radar which will provide us with excellent leverage opportunities. I love Harvick's top 5 potential and I expect him to be my highest owned driver in the second Duel

Joey Logano

Logano is another driver that performs much better in the Duels than a full length race. He is starting 6th on Thursday so is place differential potential is limited but he is one of the few drivers that has a legitimate chance to win. He also will be very interested in maximizing the number of points he gets in this race so he will not take any unnecessary risks. I expect most people to focus on the drivers starting 9-16 so sprinkling in some Logano will be a nice way to differentiate a lineup.

Conclusion

I am not expecting a ton of fireworks on Thursday but every extra bit of experience these drivers get with the new car will help their performance on the big stage on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how the new car holds up in a huge pack or if we will get more tandem drafting as we saw in practice. Either way, this is always a great way to start the season and I cannot wait to see what it has in store for us.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!