Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Jockey Made in America 250 Presented by Kwik Trip 🏁

Happy 4th of July! NASCAR is looking to produce some afternoon fireworks this year with the Jockey Made in America 250 (I swear they just troll us once a year with these ridiculously long names). The race will take place at Road America in Elkhart Lake, WI, an Xfinity staple that is being run by the Cup for the first time in 65 years. The track is a 14 turn, 4.048 mile road course known for its long straightaways and many elevation changes. Like every other first run track this season, we will get same day qualifying on Sunday so we will not know the starting lineup until about two hours before race time. I do not think I will be able to get a video up in time this weekend so make sure to stay active in chat and on Twitter to get the latest updates and ask any questions.

On to Road America!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 62 laps will be run this and 15.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 55 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 24.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This week's race will feature the fewest laps of any race this entire season, making dominator points exceedingly scarce. To illustrate my point consider this: the race at Sonoma had 92 laps and Kyle Larson utterly dominated it, he led 57 laps, ran 29 fastest laps, and won. With all that being said he only outscored the next best driver by 8 points...and that was with an extra 30 laps at his disposal. The finishing position will be of utmost importance this weekend, especially in cash. If there was ever a race that warranted a zero dominator cash lineup it would be this one. We have seen pit strategy play a big part in lead changes at road courses this year and I expect more of the same on Sunday so even if one driver shows up with a rocket ship, he still may not lead more than 60% of the laps because he will be stuck behind cars on a different strategy. Therefore, in cash I would try to construct my team with at least four-driver that can finish in the top 10 and two drivers that may have qualified no so great that can pick up spots and finish in the top 15.

In tournaments, we will probably need to nail the one dominator if we want to take down a tournament as well as have all six drivers finish in the top 10. That is a monster ask and most likely a very risky strategy because if any driver slips up that lineup will most likely be toast. I expect passing to be tough so I will focus on drivers who qualify well and have a history of finishing with a positive place differential at road courses. We should try to avoid drivers that may have a nice average finish but also have negative place differential because that means they qualify well and finish well, just not as well as they qualify. Obviously, if some free squares open up (think Kurt Busch at Sonoma) do not be afraid to roster them but overall we should only consider drivers with top 10 potential.

I suggest we attack this slate the same way we have treated the other races with same-day qualifying, do your research and identify an ideal starting range for the drivers you are interested in, and if they qualify within that range load up on them. This will allow you to cut down your player pool in a hurry.

Stage1: 14 laps, Stage 2: 15 laps, Stage 3: 33 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,600 DK, $14,500 FD)

Chase Elliott is an absolute stud at road courses and deserves the highest price tag on both sites. Elliott and Larson are the two highest priced drivers of the slate and the two favorites at the books. I give the nod to Elliott on Sunday due to his long term success, 5 in the last 7 road races, and due to a little bit of speculation. While he generally finishes very well at road courses, he tends to qualify rather poorly which will help on Sunday due to the limited number of laps. I expect Elliott to be in contention this weekend and if we can get someplace differential point to make up for the lack of dominator points that will be a plus.

Ideal starting position: Sheboygan County Wisconsin

Erik Jones ($6,600 DK, $4,900 FD)

Jones is an underrated road racer and has shown his ability to carry over his success to his new team this season. Jones has not been able to crack the top 10 this season but he has made up for that with a massive place differential, an average positive place differential of 14.33 in three races. Jones' low price tag makes him one of the best value plays in cash on this slate.

Ideal starting position: 20+

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $11,800 FD)

Logano has been overshadowed by Elliott, Truex Jr, and more recently Larson but he has a remarkably consistent recent history at road tracks. Logano has finished in the top 10 in each of the last six road races and has four straight top 4 finishes. He offers the perfect combination of an average finish of 7.57 and an average pos place differential of 2 over his last seven road races. Logano will most likely qualify well and finish well, providing a great pivot off of some of the other big names at a solid discount without sacrificing top 3 potential.

Ideal starting position: 7+

Alex Bowman ($8,100 DK, $10,000 FD)

Bowman is surrounded by big names in the $8,000 range but I think he provides the best upside of the bunch. He is riding a streak of four straight top 10 finishes and hasn't finished worse than 14th at a road course since his return in 2018. Bowman's average finish of 9th over the last seven road races is fourth-best in the field and his average positive pace differential of 6.14 is the eighth best. Bowman lucked into a win last weekend and I think he will provide significant upside for us again on Sunday.

Ideal starting position: 12+

Ross Chastain ($7,900 DK, $7,400 FD)

Chastain is much more expensive than I like to pay for him and he has a tough long-term history at road courses but that is why he sneaks into the risky play of the week. He is making the most of his opportunities this year and has succeeded in races I thought he had no shot in. After a disappointing 39th place finish at Daytona he turned in a 4th and 7th place finish at COTA and Sonoma. His 13th best single lap speed in practice is promising and Chastain could be in for a big day at low ownership due to his price.

Ideal starting position: 20+

Bargain Basement

Anthony Alfredo ($5,300 DK, $3,000 FD)

Two of Alfredo's best finishes this season have come at road courses and I'm hoping the trend continues on Sunday. He turned in a respectable 29th best single lap time in practice and could sneak into the top 25 this weekend. I will probably avoid this range in most tournament teams because these drivers may not be able to finish well enough to make the perfect lineup but rostering one punt in cash is perfectly fine.

Ideal starting position: 30+

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Road America that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kurt Busch ($8,800 DK, $8,500 FD)

Chris Buescher ($7,500 DK, $7,300 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($10,100 DK, $12,500 FD)

This is strictly a practice play. He was very good in practice but wrecked his primary car and is going to the backup. If he qualifies well then he is absolutely no go because he will start in the rear. When drivers know they are starting in the rear the DFS player in me always shakes my head when they go out and qualify 5th to ruin their usability. Let's see how this shakes out but if he qualifies any better than 20th I wouldn't touch him.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Jockey Made in America 250 and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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