LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Jack Links 500

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Jack Links 500🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed their NASCAR free weekend; I know I needed to recharge my batteries. While Bristol was an uneventful butt whooping by the hands of Kyle Larson, things are sure to play out much different this Sunday when the Cup Series travels to Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL for the Jack Links 500. The track is a 2.66-mile, steeply banked, tri-oval, and is one of the two old restrictor plate tracks. While restrictor plates are no longer a thing, we have to treat Talladega and Daytona differently than the other tracks on the circuit, so make sure to check out the Lineup Construction segment to understand the strategy.

For the most part, it looks like Mother Nature is going to behave herself this weekend. There is only about a 15% chance of rain on Sunday, coinciding with the start of the race, but overall, there shouldn’t be any issues running all 188 laps.

_{On to Talladega!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 188 laps will be run this week, and 47 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 165 laps should run under the green flag for 74.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Expect a “Big One”. Like Daytona and to a lesser extent Atlanta, drafting is the key to success at Talladega, and that presents a unique opportunity at this track type. Since every driver has roughly the same top speed, the cars must draft in giant packs. When 20 cars are driving 190+ mph within inches of each other, the slightest misstep could be catastrophic. Due to these racing conditions, at least once per race, a chain reaction crash occurs that will impact a significant number of drivers. We need to plan for this eventuality and structure our lineups in a way that limits our downside while maximizing our upside.

2) No one cares about dominators. There hasn’t been a legitimate dominator since 2018, and I am not expecting one on Sunday.

3) Avoid the top 10. There have only been three top 10 drivers in the last 6 perfect lineups, and frankly, they are not worth the risk. If you feel like you want to live dangerously, REALLY avoid the top 5.

4) Have at least two drivers starting 30th or worse. Rostering 6 drivers starting 30th or worse isn’t a winning strategy, but anywhere between 2-4 will give you a decent mix of drivers.

5) Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. Talladega rosters don’t go nearly as off the rails as they do at Daytona, but leaving $5,000 on the table isn’t a problem this weekend.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 60 Laps

Stage 3: 68 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD): Chastain starts 32nd, but he has an impressive track history with 3 top 10 finishes in his last 6 races here. In addition, he is coming off a last-place finish, so some positive regression should be in store for Ross this Sunday.

Justin Haley ($6,200 DK, $4,200 FD): Haley is a superspeedway ringer and starts 37th. Justin has 5 top 20 finishes in his last six races here, which would be more than enough to pay off his super low salary.

Chase Elliott ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD): Elliott is another driver who is riding an impressive top 20 streak with 5 top 20s in his last 6 races here. The one outlier was last Fall’s race, which also sets Chase up well for Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Bubba Wallace ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD): Wallace is a former Talladega winner and a very good superspeedway racer. He starts 20th, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he made his way to the front of the field at some point on Sunday.

Erik Jones ($6,400 DK, $5,000 FD): For whatever reason, Talladega is one of Jones’ best tracks. Erik has four top 6 finishes in his last six races here and starts 34th, so he will have a ton of place differential potential this weekend.

Daniel Suarez ($6,600 DK, $6,200 FD): Suarez is not a name you see pop up too often at superspeedways, and that’s what makes him a fantastic tournament play. Daniel is starting 24th and has three top 11 finishes in his last six races at Talladega.

Michael McDowell ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD): McDowell is a great superspeedway racers that is on a two year bad luck streak. He will have virtually no ownership from his 14th place starting position, which gives us a perfect buy-low GPP play.

Bargain Basement

Shane Van Gisbergen ($5,500 DK, $3,500 FD)

SVG is a world-renowned road racer, and superspeedways are the polar opposite. He was able to pull off a 15th place finish last Fall, and I think he still may have some bias against him despite his 36th place starting position.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Talladega that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($9,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Carson Hocevar ($6,900 DK, $5,800 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($8,200 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD)

I don’t know who needs to hear this, but do not start anyone on the front row. I am not playing anyone in the top 5, and honestly, I’ll be way underweight on the top 10. Busch starts 2nd on Sunday, and I will be rolling out the full fade.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 9-9 (7.35 u)

Sportsbooks are getting smart and aren’t offering any outlandish H2Hs. The top 10 market is a little soft, though, and I like this number on Gilliland. He finishes in the top 10 about 50% of the time so there is decent value here. I like SVG at longer odd too if you want to be extra risky.

Logano has not finished better than 19th at Talladega in the Next Gen Era. He starts 3rd on Sunday, and we know how I feel about the top 10. Stenhouse Jr. won last fall’s race, so I expect horrible things to happen to him on Sunday, end of story.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the  Jack Links 500 Cheatsheet

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