Written by @joejets19

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Daytona Speedweeks 2021 🏁

We're baaaaaaaaaaaaaack! One of the shortest offseason's in professional sports feels shorter every year but NASCAR is back in action starting Tuesday night for the Busch Clash, followed by the Bluegreen Vacation Duels on Thursday and then the Daytona 500 on Sunday. The Clash and the Duels are gimmick races to kind of get everyone ready for the grand finale on Sunday, but there is real money to be won and Draftkings and Fanduel so LineStar has you covered. This will not be your typical Pitstop but I will try to highlight some of the key points, strategies, and drivers for each race. Good luck everyone, this is one of the most fun weeks of the NASCAR season.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. The clash will consist of 35 laps for 8.75 DK points and each Duel will be 60 laps for 15 DK points

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution-roughly 30 laps (13.5 DK points) for the Clash and roughly 50 laps (22.5 DK points) for the Duels.

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 1 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=2, 38th=3…) and the winner gets 45 points.

Busch Clash 🏁

What is the Clash?

Speedweek kicks of with the Busch Clash, a 35 lap All-Star race of sorts. The field is made up of: every 2020 race winner, every 2020 stage winner, every 2020 playoff driver, every 2020 pole winner, past Clash and Daytona 500 winners who raced full time in 2020, and past Daytona 500 pole winners who raced full time in 2020. This year 21 drivers qualified and all 21 drivers will race. For the first time every the race will be on the Daytona Road Course (not the traditional oval) so we will be seeing right hand turns on Tuesday night.

How should we attack the slate?

This is going to be an incredibly short race for scoring purposes, only 35 laps with a scheduled caution at lap 15. The finishing position is going to be key on Tuesday night because there are a very limited number of fastest laps and laps led points available, if multiple drivers make it to the front it will all be a wash. The lineup was set by a random draw so there will be a few very chalky drivers starting in the rear that have a significant chance to win the race and I wouldn't shy away from them considering their place differential upside. Overall I think the winning lineup will probably feature each of the top 6 finishers, so were are going to have to be perfect to take down a big one.

Who should we be targeting?

The most obvious play of the slate is Martin Truex Jr ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD). He is starting 18th and has one of the best overall road course histories in the field, including five straight top 7 finishes at road courses and a 3rd place finish here last year. Chase Elliott ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD) is starting 7th and has won each of the last four road races. Chase will be another popular driver but he also is the odds on favorite to win. Denny Hamlin ($9,600 DK, $12,000 FD) may go overlooked because he is starting further forward than the previous two drivers but he has a very good chance to take the lead early and he may not give it up. Erik Jones ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD) and Kurt Busch ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD) are two lower priced drivers that have top 5 potential.

Bluegreen Vacations Duels

What are the Duels?

Nothing about the Daytona 500 speedweek is typical, so why would NASCAR rely on a single lap speed to determine the lineup of their biggest race when they can hold two 60 lap mini-races instead? Well, welcome to the Duels, Daytona's appetizer to Sunday's main course. This is a little convoluted but let me try to walk you through the field for these duels. On Wednesday NASCAR will hold traditional qualifying (each car runs 1 lap as fast as possible and they get ranked according to laps time) and the fastest 2 cars secure their starting position for Sunday. The rest of the field will be set by the two Duel races on Thursday night. The odd-numbered qualifiers will race in the first Duel, and their starting position on Sunday will correspond to their finishing position on Thursday (the winner will start 3rd and the last driver will start 39th). The even-numbered qualifiers will be in the second Duel and will make up drivers 4-40 on Sunday. To add an extra wrinkle (like we need it) there will be 8 drivers racing for the four open non-chartered starting positions on Sunday and while they might not seem too important, they may actually provide us the most safety of the slates because they need to finish the Duels to actually have a chance to move on.

How should we attack these slates?

Superspeedway races (formerly restrictor plate races) are known for crashes and chaos. Historically, the Duels have been no different, with well funded teams bringing "throwaway" cars for the Clash and the Duels so they don't have to worry about wrecking their 500 car and they can just go out there and race all out. Recently the Duels have been relatively anti-climatic and I expect the trend to continue due to COVID. Funding is tight for everyone so I don't expect drivers to be too careless on Thursday and they might just take what they can and save their big moves for Sunday.

Who should we be targeting?

The field has not been set for either Duel yet so I am going to talk in generalities, which is perfectly fine for a race like these ones. The conventional wisdom for superspeedways is to stack the back and hope your drivers make it out in one piece. I am going to attack it a little differently this year with at least 3 drivers starting in the top 10. Just like in the Clash, there are very few dominator points available and I do expect the lead to change hands a few times. I'm generally not one to stack teams or manufacturers but that has been a very solid strategy at recent superspeedway races and I think that will be a key to Thursday's slates because the drivers that finish near each other on Thursday will start near each other on Sunday so making alliances now will pay dividends in the long run.

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