Written by @joejets19

Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Download the Xfinity 500 Cheatsheet

Season Finale 500 🏁

It's Championship Weekend!!!! 2020 has been a roller coaster of a season with a pandemic, weekday races, doubleheaders, and now the grand finale race where the betting favorite isn't even eligible for the title. I want to thank everyone for sticking with us throughout the season and hope we were able to retain the new fans that we picked up during the slow spring/summer. Enough bloviating, let's get to the race. For the first time since 2001, the championship will be decided at a track other than Homestead-Miami as NASCAR travels to Phoenix Raceway in Avondale AZ to crown their champion. The track is a 1 mile flat tri-oval that was recently reconfigured in the hopes of producing an exciting finish for the race...and the season. Usually, we want to focus on the championship drivers (Hamlin, Logano, Elliott, Keselowski) in the final race because most drivers stay out of their way during this race and let them battle amongst themselves. Every year since the current playoff format was adopted, the champion has had to win the final race. However, this year the betting favorite (Harvick) is not eligible for the title.

On to Phoenix!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 312 laps will be run this and 78 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 257 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 128.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

As I mentioned in the lead, we really want to focus the bulk of our attention on the Championship drivers and I would limit my dominator pool to them exclusively. Harvick being the betting favorite for the race is an interesting wrinkle, but it is not the only wrinkle this year. This will be the second year in a row that the Championship drivers will be starting 1-4 and although last year's race was at a different track there are some interesting takeaways. All four drivers were able to lead some laps but two dominators emerged and I expect the perfect lineup this week will also feature two of the four championship drivers. Also all four drivers last year finished in the top 10, and three of the drivers finished in the top 4, supporting my theory that these four drivers will be left alone to fight amongst themselves and everyone else is going to stay out of their way.

So we know we need two championship drivers, what about the others? Well, there isn't a ton of consistency in previous perfect lineups except that all non-dominators have to pick up at least 5 spots. Ideally, we would like every one of our drivers to have top 10 potentials but there have been perfect lineups that were top heavy that had one or two inexpensive drivers that didn't finish great but were able to pick up at least 5 spots.

Stage 1: 75 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 122 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 30

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,300 DK, $13,000 FD)

Hamlin can make the claim that he has been the most dominant driver of the final four with 7 wins, 17 top 5s, and 20 top 10s this season. He is looking to add one more win to his total on Sunday from his 4th place starting position. Hamlin will be fighting an uphill battle by starting the furthest back of the Championship four, but I prefer to think of it as place differential potential. There is a lot to like about Hamlin this weekend, he has the best average finish here in the last five races (8.6) as well as the best average finish at similar tracks this season. He is also no stranger to leading laps at Phoenix with 143 and 193 laps led in two of the last six races. Hamlin is my favorite Championship driver this weekend and I believe the "safest" for cash.

Chris Buescher ($7,200 DK, $6,700 FD)

Buescher burned us last weekend but I love him on Sunday. He is starting 31st but has an average finish of 19.2 in his last five races here including four straight finishes between 16th and 18th. He is priced up compared to previous weeks but he provides a great floor for cash and a reasonable value overall.

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Keselowski is starting third on Sunday and is actually the most expensive Championship driver. He is the pesky type of driver that always hangs out upfront and can lead chunks of laps at a time. I believe he may actually be the lowest owned driver in the top 4 which could give us some nice leverage for tournaments. Keselowski has the second best average finish here over the last five, the second best average finish at similar tracks this season and he is the only driver in the top 4 that has a positive average place differential. Kes has never won here and only has two top three finishes in his career at Phoenix but his willingness to try different strategies to get to the front of the field is what really makes me like him in a winner take all environment.

William Byron ($8,400 DK, $10,200 FD)

Byron is another driver that can provide massive place differential upside for cheap. He is starting 25th one Sunday, one spot ahead of Jimmie Johnson but will offer a $900 price discount. Byron has an average finish of 14.4 in his five career Cup races here with two top 10 finishes. He was pretty fast here in the spring and is running the 11th fastest green flag average. I am looking for Byron to finish the season on a strong note and would love to see him sneak into the top 15.

Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Our risky pick of the weekend is a gut pick. I was going through the starting lineup trying to find an inexpensive driver that can pick up at least 5 spots and finish in the top 10 and Dillon is one of the few drivers that has that type of potential. Austin starts 18th on Sunday and I think he has a good chance to finish in the top 15, but I am really eyeing him for a top 10 performance. He only has two top 10 finishes here in his last nine races, but he has a better car than at least three drivers starting ahead of him so he only needs one break to find his way into the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

This is another brutal week for the bargain basement and it really comes down to Nemechek vs Lajoie. I am going with the $200 savings and extra place differential potential that Lajoie provides. He is starting 28th this weekend and has a similar ceiling but actually has a better average finish at similar tracks this season. For some reason, Nemechek seems to find his way into trouble and I am not looking to take on any unnecessary risk this weekend in the basement.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Cole Custer ($6,900 DK, $8,500 FD)

Ty Dillon ($6,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Ryan Newman ($6,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kevin Harvick ($11,100 DK, $12,300 FD)

Fading Kevin Harvick at Phoenix? Are you crazy!!!! Yes, a little bit. I want to go out with a bang, but I also truly believe that he is going to just hang out and let these guys battle it out. I know I mentioned that he is the favorite to win on Sunday but I would rather allocate all of my dominator ownership to the top 4 than risk a flat race from Harvick/Truex/Kyle Busch. On a side note, the perfect way to end the 2020 season would be for Kyle Busch to ruin everyone's weekend and running away with a win (you heard it here first).

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Season Finale500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.