Written by @joejets19

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Xfinity 500 🏁

We have made it to the penultimate race of the season. Last week (Wednesday), Kyle Busch finally ended his winless drought, which sets the table for a high drama elimination race, as seven drivers are racing for three open spots in next week's championship race. The Xfinity 500 will take place on Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA. The track is a 0.526 mile flat oval that is said to resemble a paperclip. Rain is currently in the forecast for Sunday morning but I would expect NASCAR will do everything in its power to get in all 500 laps.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run this and 125 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 440 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 220 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Previous perfect lineups from Martinsville have been all over the place. 500 laps will be run on Sunday, so naturally we will want to start with our dominators, but the last eight races have seen anywhere between 1 and 3 drivers lead more than 100 laps. The eight best cars of the season are starting in the top 8 and seven of them are fighting for a spot in the championship four, so I am leaning more heavily on two to three dominator lineups. Of the sixteen drivers that have led more than 100 laps in the last eight races here, only two have started outside of the top 10. Considering the talent heavy front end of the field for Sunday, I would focus on that range for our dominators.

The potential dominators are going to be expensive Sunday so we are going to have to hold our nose and make some tough decisions with the rest of our lineup. Our one dominator lineups can be pretty balanced and we will want to focus on drivers with top 10 potential. Two dominator lineups can still be fairly balanced with at least one bargain basement driver that has a chance to land in the top 15. The three dominator lineups are going to get hairy, these will most likely need two bargain basement drivers and at least one of them will have to finish in the top 20.

There are a million ways to attack this slate on Sunday with high ownership on some of the obvious plays. It is going to be very interesting to see how everything plays out.

Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 60

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. is starting 2nd on Sunday and will most likely be the highest owned driver on the slate. He has won each of the last two races here and is in a must win situation this weekend. He has an average finishing position of 3.4 in the last five races here with 132 and 464 laps led in the last two races respectively. Truex also had the third best green flag average in the June race and an incredible 58 fastest laps. Truex's season is on the line on Sunday and I expect him to do whatever he can to end up on victory lane.

Bubba Wallace ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD)

Recommending Bubba Wallace in cash is never anything I want to do but hey, we might as well go out with a bang. Wallace is starting 32nd on Sunday and is a legitimate top 20 threat with top 15 potential. He has two consecutive top 15 finishes here (13 and 11) and had the 9th best green flag average in June. Wallace will be another popular driver but he is an inexpensive option with a high floor and decent ceiling, which is exactly what we will need on this slate.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($9,900 DK, $12,500 FD)

Logano is looking to play spoiler on Sunday because he is the only driver already locked into the final four. Most drivers in that position would probably stay out of the way, but I expect Logano to be in the mix during all 500 laps. He had the fastest car in June, leading 234 laps, adding 61 fastest laps and posting the best green flag average but only had a 4th place finish to show for it. He is starting 7th this weekend and is the cheapest top tier driver on the slate, so he will fit perfectly in any two-three dominator lineups because he offers place differential and salary relief without sacrificing ceiling.

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $6,600 FD)

Buescher is always a guy I find myself gravitating toward due to his generally low price and relative safety. This weekend, he brings a nice ceiling along for the ride because he is starting 28th. Buescher has seven consecutive finishes of 23rd or better at Martinsville and isn't afraid to sneak into the top 15, with a 13th and 12th place finish in the last two races respectively. He is a cash game safe option with GPP winning upside.

William Byron ($7,700 DK, $9,800 FD)

Byron lands in the risky driver of the week slot because, well, he jumped out to me on my model and I think he is going to be very low owned on Sunday. He is starting 13th, which is sort of in no-man's land considering his salary, but he does have two consecutive top 10 finishes including a second place finish last October, so the ceiling is definitely there. He was very fast in the June race of this year, running the sixth fastest green flag average and was even able to pick up 13 fastest laps. Byron is not an all-in type of play but could definitely offer some lineup differentiation in one to two dominator lineups.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Slim pickings down in the bargain basement again because we can realistically cross off about half of the drivers right off the bat. Lajoie is the cheapest of the viable options and is also starting the furthest back (26th). I don't expect him to pick up too many spots but he is coming off of back to back 18th place finishes here, which would be enough to put him into perfect lineup consideration.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski ($11,400 DK, $13,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($10,200 DK, $13,200 FD)

Ryan Newman ($6,500 DK, $7,600 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kurt Busch ($8,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Kurt Busch is another driver in a must win situation on Sunday but I just don't see it happening. Busch is actually pretty good here, with a top 10 finish in 3 of the last four but he has no top 5 finishes in the last 12 races here. He is starting 5th and priced fairly but has no place differential or dominator potential to speak of, so I don't see a way he ends up in the perfect lineup without a win.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Xfinity 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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