Written by @joejets19

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Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 🏁

We are getting down to the nitty-gritty and a somewhat surprising driver, Joey Logano, locked up the first spot in the final four. Another driver will be looking to punch their ticket into the Championship race this weekend when NASCAR travels to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. The track is a 1.5 mile banked, asphalt quad oval. Weather doesn't seem to be much of an issue for Sunday so we should be able to get the race in without issue.

On to Texas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 334 laps will be run this and 83.5 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 294 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 147 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Texas has been a weird track recently, look at the average finishes (in the cheatsheet) for the five highest priced drivers on the slate. For a 1.5 mile oval, we get some shocking results. As always, we want to start by looking for dominators. Four of the last five races featured only one driver who led more than 100 laps and only one of those races had a second driver lead more than 70 laps. The main dominator tends to start in the top 10, but we should see a bunch of drivers spend some time up front for small chunks of the race and their finishing position will determine if they make it into the perfect lineup.

While we will need to choose the right dominator to climb the leaderboard, we need to focus the bulk of our lineup on finishing position. Our driver pool should be narrowed down to only drivers who can finish in the top 15 with positive place differential (top 10 ideally, but some of the cheaper drivers don't need that type of ceiling). We should not be afraid to front load our lineups either, each of the last five perfect lineups contained at least two drivers starting in the top 10 and two of those lineups had four drivers that started in the top 10. There is a higher than expected attrition rate at Texas so there will be more risk than usual associated with front loaded lineups, but if you want to take down a GPP we will need to accept that.

Stage 1: 105 laps, Stage 2: 105 laps, Stage 3: 12 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Harvick had the best car last Sunday but clean air was king, so he couldn't get around Logano in the late stages of the race. He still ran well enough to secure the pole position on Sunday, and is the favorite to win as well as my favorite dominator. He has an average finish on 3.4 in his last five races here, an average finish of 4th at similar tracks this season and had the 7th best green flag average in July at this track. Harvick is completely dominant at Texas, with three wins (all in the fall race) and 461 total laps led in the last six races here, and I expect that to continue on Sunday.

Ryan Newman ($6,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ryan Newman is not a sexy pick and does not fit the top 10 criteria outlined above for GPPs but he is one of the best cash plays in the field. Newman is starting 25th and has an average finish of 16.8 in his last five races here, including three straight top 15 finishes. He wasn't particularly fast here in July but he is a safe driver and at a track that can see as many as 15 drivers run into trouble, Newman is the type of high floor value pick that can help a cash team.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,300 DK, $11,300 FD)

There isn't a high chance of a this being a two dominator race but behind Harvick, I am looking at Kyle Busch or Ryan Blaney as my number two. Blaney dominated the first race here, which should be fresh in everyone's mind, and is starting 10th whereas Busch has had a well documented "down year" and is starting 9th. This may be my KB bias speaking, but I prefer to save the salary with Busch at possible lower ownership. Blaney has the higher laps led ceiling, in my estimation, but I worry about him getting caught up in some trouble late in the race and finishing poorly. Kyle, on the other hand, has been known to struggle early in the race and claw his way back to a nice finishing position. Considering I am only expecting my second dominator to lead 40-60 laps on Sunday, I prefer the finishing position floor Busch provides over the ceiling that Blaney provides.

Clint Bowyer ($8,700 DK, $10,200 FD)

Clint Bowyer has struggled with some of the same things that Kyle Busch has this season, just without any of the fan fare. He is running similar equipment as Harvick and Almirola but always seems to be just a hair off and always unhappy with his car. Texas, however, seems to be his happy place, where he has finished in the top 11 in four of the last five races. He is starting 21st on Sunday and is one of the few drivers starting this far back with legitimate top 10 potential. He had speed in his car in July, posting the 5th best green flag average, now lets see if he can turn that into another impressive finish.

Austin Dillon ($7,500 DK, $9,000 FD)

While Blaney was the driver who dominated in July, Austin Dillon was the eventual winner. I don't expect a repeat performance from Dillon on Sunday but we can't forget the speed he showed in the first round of the playoffs. He is starting 12th on Sunday and fits our need of a low priced driver starting forward who can pick up some spots and finish in the top 10. We don't actually need a lot out of Dillon this weekend, just a clean race and a top 8 finish should get him into the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

I love when I can get Ty this cheap, especially at a track he has had some success at. He is starting 27th on Sunday and will need to do some work to crack the top 20. He has four top 20 finishes in eight career Cup races here and a high finish of 13th, so he possesses a GPP winning ceiling with enough of a floor to make him cash safe.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Texas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Erik Jones ($8,900 DK, $10,700 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

Matt Kenseth ($7,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Brad Keselowski ($9,600 DK, $11,000 FD)

I almost spit out my drink when I looked at my model and saw Kes' average finish (25.8) and average place diff (-17.4) in the last 5 here. While most of it can be attributed to bad luck, I think he brings more downside than upside to a lineup considering his 3rd place starting position. Keselowski always has a chance to steal a race, so he makes for a sneaky GPP play, but I will definitely be underweight (no more than 10%).

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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