Written by @joejets19

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Hollywood Casino 400 🏁

We are down to the final 8 as NASCAR travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS for the Hollywood Casino 400. The track is a 1.5 mile asphalt tri-oval with progressive banking. All eight playoff drivers are starting in the top 8, so the fastest cars will all be bunched together, fighting for dominator points. There is some rain in the forecast for Sunday but we don't have to worry about rain tires, we shouldn't have too much of an issue getting the full race in.

On to Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 232 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 116 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

You may have noticed that I tried something different with the cheatsheet this week. I dusted off my model, which I shelved once they did away with practice, because we are late in the season and there is a decent amount of information we can gather from previous races. Instead of making specific comments on each driver, I posted their average finish and average place differential for the last 5 races at Kansas and their projected finish from my most accurate model from the last Kansas race. Hopefully you enjoy the change.

Kansas is a cookie cutter 1.5 mile track and this is the second to last one of the year. What does that mean for us? These tracks are fairly predictable and aren't the most fun to watch, but we will get through it. The drivers will run 267 laps on Sunday, so we are going to want to target one to two dominators. Eight of the last nine races here featured one driver who led more than 100 laps and a second driver who led more than 60 laps. The summer race this year was a bit of a mess and is the only outlier race, with no driver leading more than 60 laps. We are going to want to focus on the front of the field for our dominator pool, historically there have been drivers starting as far back as 23rd that have led a significant amount of laps, but the way the field is structured for Sunday, that seems very unlikely.

Once we pick our dominators, we are going to want to fill out our lineups with four place differential drivers. These drivers generally start 20th or worse and should have top 15 potential. Bargain Basement drivers starting worse than 30th don't have to make it into the top 15 but they should be able to pick up at least 10 spots.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kevin Harvick ($10,400 DK, $13,200 FD)

Harvick is starting 4th on Sunday, behind Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Kurt Busch, but I think he has the best chance to lead the early portion of the race. Harvick was an utter disappointment when starting on the pole this summer but he has a fantastic track history with one win, 315 total laps led and an average finish of 7.14 in his last seven races here. He has also dominated similar tracks this season, with an average finish of 4.11. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on a non pole sitting dominator but Harvick is one of the strongest options in the field on Sunday.

Kyle Busch ($9,900 DK, $11,200 FD)

Busch was eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday but he still has been very vocal about not wanting his streak of 16 straight years with at least one win to end in 2020. He is starting 20th and is fairly pricey, so he will be more of a cash play, but I love his upside this weekend. Kansas is not one of Busch's best tracks but we don't need him to dominate, we just need him to do everything in his power to pick up the win and any fastest lap or laps led points will be an added bonus. Even though this has been the least dominant I have ever seen Busch, he still has an average finish of 9.8 at similar tracks this season and an average running position of 7.2 here, which means he may be in line for some positive variance.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Denny Hamlin is starting 7th Sunday and has actually won the last two races at Kansas. He has been, hands down, one of the top 3 drivers this season and has seven wins this year to prove it. His long term history at Kansas is not that impressive, with four top 10 finishes in his last 9, but he has been red hot this season and I expect that to continue on Sunday. He is the third most expensive driver on the slate but has one of the highest ceilings. So oddly enough, he is actually a relative value.

John Hunter Nemechek ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD)

This is a very top heavy race and Nemechek offers significant salary relief. He is starting 32nd and was able to race up to a 19th place finish when starting 30th this summer. He has been slightly less impressive this year at similar tracks, with an average finish of 25.56. But his average place diff of 4.33 is encouraging enough for me consider Nemechek as a building block for our lineups.

Erik Jones ($8,400 DK, $10,200 FD)

Jones is starting 11th on Sunday and is priced up enough that he really needs a top 5 to have a chance at the perfect lineup. His salary and starting position will depress ownership (I hope) and make him a solid GPP pivot off of Kyle Busch. Jones has an average finish of 5.2 here and an incredibly average positive place diff in 7.8. He has not been nearly as good at similar tracks this season, which is why he is not a cash safe play, but there are very few drivers with the raw skill and upside that Jones brings to each and every race.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,700 DK, $7,200 FD)

McDowell has been unplayable for the past several weeks due to his price/starting position, but all is right with the world again because he is cheap and starting 26th. McDowell was able to pull off a 16th place finish here in July, which I don't expect him to duplicate but he provides significant upside for the price and could allow us to more easily fit in our second dominator.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Corey Lajoie ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($10,100 DK, $12,000 FD)

Ryan Newman ($6,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($9,700 DK, $11,400 FD)

For some reason Blaney really struggles here, with three straight finishes of 20th or worse. He is starting 9th on Sunday, right behind the playoff drivers, and doesn't provide enough upside to pay off his steep salary. There are cheaper drivers starting further back that offer higher upside and a more stable floor at a discounted price.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Hollywood Casino 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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