Written by @joejets19

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Bank of America Roval 400 🏁

Time flies when you are having fun and we are down to our second elimination race of the playoffs. In one of the most gimmicky segments in recent history, we will finish the round of 12 at the Charlotte Roval. The Roval is a 2.28 mile, 17 turn, road/oval hybrid track carved out of Charlotte Motor Speedway. Tensions will be high for most of this race because there are six drivers in contention for the last two playoff spots. Oh, and would it be 2020 without a sadistic twist? There is rain in the forecast for Sunday so we may get to see how rain tires work on a Roval.

On to the Roval!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 109 laps will be run this and 27.25 points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.5 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 89 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 44.5 possible points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

The first thing we should notice about the race breakdown is the very limited amount of dominator points available (27.25 laps led and about 44.5 fastest laps points in total). In the very small sample size at the Roval (2 races) we can determine that trying to pick drivers that led laps is not the best strategy, only three of the five drivers that led more than 20 laps made the perfect lineups. Instead, we want to focus on finishing position, specifically driver that can finish 15th or better because all 12 drivers in the last two perfect lineups were able to achieve that benchmark. Now, I understand that two races is a pitiful sample size, but focusing on place differential is a strategy we employ at all road courses.

Now, we know we want drivers that can finish in the top 15, so wouldn't that mean place differential is what we are really looking for? The reason I emphasize finishing position over place differential is the fact that three drivers in each of the last two perfect lineups started in the top 10 and finished in the top 10. They did not need to make big moves, just pick up a few spots throughout the race and add a nominal amount of laps led or fastest laps points, to add to their total. Due to the rain, I think in cash we may want to play it safer, so I think four place differential drivers may be the move. However, if we want to take down a big tournament on Sunday, I think starting three drivers in the top 10 and three drivers starting 20th or worse will be the way to go.

Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 25 laps, Stage 3: 59 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 10

Lineup Foundation Targets

Christopher Bell ($7,500 DK, $7,600 FD)

Bell starts 35th on Sunday but did not get the type of salary bump that other obvious place differential drivers received. He was very good here in his two races in Xfinity, with two top 12 finishes and at least 5 laps led in both. He will have a significantly faster car than at least 8 drivers starting ahead of him and will have the rest of the race to plod toward that top 15 we are looking for. Bell is not the type of driver I usually highlight at the top of a Pitstop, but he checks all the boxes for this race and he is the type of driver we should build our lineups around.

Jimmie Johnson ($9,100 DK, $10,600 FD)

Johnson is relatively expensive but he is the only driver starting 30th or worse with a realistic expectation of a top 10 finish. Historically, Johnson has been a streaky road course racer, with significantly more success at Sonoma than Watkins Glenn but he has actually shown the most promise at the hybrid tracks of the Roval/Daytona Road Course. He has three-straight top 10 finishes at the hybrids and this may be one of Johnson's last chances to make some noise in his farewell season.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,600 DK, $13,500 FD)

Elliott starts 2nd and is the favorite to win the race on Sunday. He is a fantastic road racer, with three consecutive wins at road courses and is the defending champion at the Roval. As I mentioned, he is starting second which severely impacts his differential potential so he will need a win and laps led to pay off his salary, not something we really want to rely on at these track types. Elliott has the highest dominator potential in the field, which is something we should be looking for in tournaments.

Clint Bowyer ($8,800 DK, $11,300 FD)

Speaking of farewell seasons, Bowyer made some headlines this week announcing that his raceday suit won't be fireproof next season. Unlike Johnson, this was a bit of a surprise considering he is still technically alive for the playoffs, even though its pretty much a win or go home situation. Luckily for Bowyer, he is starting 11th on Sunday and is a fantastic road course racer. He has an average finish of 7.22 in his last nine road courses and an average finish of 4.33 at the hybrid tracks. Bowyer will need some magic to keep his season alive, but overall he is a great tournament option on Sunday.

Kyle Busch ($9,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

This might be the most ridiculous risky pick of the season considering Busch's terrible history at the Roval (37th and 32nd place finishes) but Kyle's season is on the line and he is a fighter, so this is a bank-on-talent type of play you read about in other sports. This is essentially a gut feeling because Busch is actually a very good road course racer at the traditional tracks. We just need him to improve on his 9th place starting position...he needs a win.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

The Bargain Basement is hurting this weekend and there are only two drivers with top 15 potential. Unfortunately, they start 17th (Dillon) and 18th (Preece) so there is just as much downside as upside associated with these drivers. Of the two, I prefer Dillon. He is starting one place further forward and is more expensive but does have a 15th place finish here and 20th place finish at Daytona. Preece has never finished better than 21st at a Cup road race and neither one of these drivers make me feel comfortable, but they are the type of plays that can differentiate your lineup on Sunday.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Roval that have a chance to make some noise, in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($10,900 DK, $12,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Alex Bowman ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Dillon ($7,200 DK, $6,400 FD)

Dillion has been on fire this playoffs but I think his run ends on Sunday. He is starting 6th but has a 25.5 place average finish in his last 8 road course races and his Roval average finish is worse, 31st. Dillon was a victim of the playoff reseeding, so he will need to win on Sunday...not something I am expecting him to do.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Bank of America Roval 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!

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